Hard News: The Big 2012 US Election PAS Thread
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Local TV seems to be making a real effort this time – the time zones are in our favour.
And One News, with an extremely annoying Jack Tame video. I think his work, like that of all the NZ correspondents, has been pretty good, but he needed a producer to tell him to tone it down on that video.
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Checking in from Arizona, where the result of the Presidential vote is not in doubt - there's not quite enough Hispanic votes yet to turn the State into New Mexico ... but wait until 2016! - but the Senate race is still considered a bit of a toss up. Which is where the real suspense will be today, I suspect - will the Republicans keep/pick up enough seats to get parity (or even control) there?
Probably not ... but it might help to keep things interesting, if Nate Silver's predictions are right. (Or, rather, if the more highly probably outcome that Nate Silver points to eventuates.)
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A WaPo story on when we'll all know about Ohio.
Polls there close at 7.30pm EST -- ie: 1.30pm our time.
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For me, the real interest is going to be down-ticket. Has Todd 'Legitimate Rape' Aiken thrown a race that should never have been competitive in the first place? We shall see.
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And I'm presuming we'll all be able to watch The Daily Show's live coverage, from 5pm NZ time.
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I'm going to mosey along with a couple of friends to their local polling place to see what the lines are like and how they do things over here (from a respectful distance, obvs.). Should be interesting.
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Russell Brown, in reply to
For me, the real interest is going to be down-ticket. Has Todd ‘Legitimate Rape’ Aiken thrown a race that should never have been competitive in the first place? We shall see.
I did see a comment yesterday declaring that the Republicans have bungled as many as five Senate races: Akin, Mourdock, can't recall the others ...
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I did see a comment yesterday declaring that the Republicans have bungled as many as five Senate races: Akin, Mourdock, can't recall the others ...
Scott Brown in Massachusetts -- who had the Tea Party having a collective orgasm after he picked up arch-liberal hate object Ted Kennedy's seat. Democrat Elizabeth Warren's opened up a small, but consistent, lead despite, shall we say, a rather unpleasant primary and an enthusiasm gap among her own party.
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Roy Edroso checks with pics in from his polling station at Takoma Park, Maryland, where there was a queue of 200 at 7.30am.
And lots of lovely liberals are posting their voting pics at TPM.
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Lucy Stewart, in reply to
Democrat Elizabeth Warren’s opened up a small, but consistent, lead despite, shall we say, a rather unpleasant primary and an enthusiasm gap among her own party.
She's run a strong and consistent campaign for the last few months, did very well in the three debates they had, and Brown has not helped his own case.
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Craig Ranapia, in reply to
She’s run a strong and consistent campaign for the last few months, did very well in the three debates they had
That she has -- we can all get terribly clever gaming the polls and coming up with convoluted conspiracy theories, but never misunderestimate the value of consistently getting the ground game basics right, I haven't looked at Brown's record closely enough to know whether he's an actual moderate, or one of the Romney variety, but trying to pin Warren as some tax-and-spend out-of-touch liberal elitists doesn't seem to be working.
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David Hood, in reply to
And lots of lovely liberals are posting their voting pics at TPM.
In theory, they should be a bit careful about what the state rules are about cameras at polling places.
I mention this because prominent camera use was one of the tactics the Texas Tea Party based "True the Vote" was training in volunteers in which were illegal in many places. -
The New Yorker's Judith Thurman on the crazily difficult business of casting her vote.
And this is New York -- it's not like there's some evil GOP governor trying to suppress the vote here. I cannot understand how the "World's Greatest Democracy" can be so bad at the basic provision of voting.
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"I think [Jack Tame's] work, like that of all the NZ correspondents, has been pretty good"
You're speaking out of professional courtesy, right? Presumably you don't watch any of it. I used to think Tim Wilson was some kind of Nazi that they had sent to the US to get rid of, but no, it seems they are all like that.
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Graeme Edgeler, in reply to
The New Yorker's Judith Thurman on the crazily difficult business of casting her vote.
I have tears in my eyes.
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Who won the Melbourne Cup?
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And the NY Times has a lovely graphic that suggests hopefully we don't even need to watch!
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Russell Brown, in reply to
Who won the Melbourne Cup?
Horse-race punditry.
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Queues huh? Not enough polling people or machines??? Hmmm.....Conspiracy theory rant here: Does anyone know of any "throughput rates" done between those electronic voting machines in Dem Country and those is Rep Country??
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If you're puzzled by the New Black Panther panic showing up on your wires, Fox News is already going nuts on the story.
Jerry Jackson, who had voter intimidation charges against him dropped after the 2008 election, is back at a Philadelphia polling station. I haven't seen a picture of a white voter, let alone an intimidated white voter, and all he seems to be doing is standing around and opening doors for old ladies (Jackson looks about 60 himself), but Fox viewers who aren't anywhere near that neighbourhood are declaring they won't be intimidated.
Here's a Fox report. Note how they slip in 2008 footage to make it look scarier:
More worryingly, former Navy SEALs and Marines have appointed themselves to go into these neighbourhoods and "protect" voters. The New Black Panthers are idiots, but dozens of white ex-Marine going into black neighbourhoods to "protect" people doesn't seem very helpful.
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Hadyn Green, in reply to
Nate Silver, you're on TV dude! Jeans and a ill-fitting sports coat? C'mon!
And the NY Times has a lovely graphic
Paul, I edited your comment so the link would work. :)
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David Hood, in reply to
Who won the Melbourne Cup?
An aggregate analysis of results suggests it was most likely to be a horse with a name starting with T [edit, I should have captioned that graph as Melbourne Cup winners by initial]
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Rachel Maddow examines Obama's record. She concludes that it is a strong one and wonders why he didn't campaign on it.
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Lucy Stewart, in reply to
In theory, they should be a bit careful about what the state rules are about cameras at polling places.
The nice lady at our local polling place was quite happy to let me take a picture of the machine they use to scan the ballots.
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BenWilson, in reply to
What if there's three in there with a T first? I think you need to do second letter analysis too.
ETA: You should probably also indicate how many of each initial has occurred in total amongst the non-winners. I bet T is very common, Z very uncommon.
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