Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: Where are all the polls at?

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  • Trevor Nicholls,

    Still, there's something deeply symbolic about a senior cabinet minister losing his seat - in the event it happens.

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 310 posts Report Reply

  • Bart Janssen,

    The Herald now has it's modelling up and running.

    As they say by combining all the polls and data from previous elections to correct for poll vs vote inaccuracies they should be able to get a better prediction.

    A nice feature is they actually talk about the limitations, however they fail to mention one of the biggest limitations of such a model which is that if public opinion actually does change significantly then their model will effectively minimise the the influence of such a change. Hence their model has Labour lower and National higher than recent polls predict, if those polls are real, a big if, then the model can't respond to them.

    That said it's really nice to see real variability represented properly rather than the usual "margin of error" bollocks.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 4450 posts Report Reply

  • Gavin White,

    Somebody stole my idea from 2014 😉 (using past accuracy to adjust current poll results). See this blog for how that worked out...

    http://sayit.co.nz/blog/its-crunch-time

    Wellington • Since Jul 2014 • 16 posts Report Reply

  • simon g,

    Fortunately last night's TVNZ debate was not accompanied by the text "poll" from previous campaigns that I mentioned above - so that was a plus.

    On t'other hand, it was immediately preceded by a proper one. Although I liked the result, I don't think that it should have been used to frame the debate. A day earlier would have been better. And fairer to English, not that I worry too much about that.

    Anyway, next gripe: time for commentators to stop annointing Winston as inevitable Kingmaker. e.g. Labour 40 + Greens 8 + Maori 1.5 (and electorate) = 61/121. Not saying it will happen (odds are it won't) but it's time to update some of that conventional wisdom.

    (ETA: gave the Greens an extra point ... because I can!)

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1321 posts Report Reply

  • steven crawford, in reply to simon g,

    Anyway, next gripe:

    Time for TVNZ to stop running advertisements during political debates. ANZ home loans advertising during a political debate That's debating home ownership problems - capital gains tax. What the ….? At least the car adds where General Motors. If there had been Ford car advertising, I would have been sending strongly worded emails to the electoral commission by now!

    Atlantis • Since Nov 2006 • 4310 posts Report Reply

  • FletcherB, in reply to Bart Janssen,

    A nice feature is they actually talk about the limitations, however they fail to mention

    They fail to mention that any predictions about the size of the party vote received by United Future based on previous results are unlikely to bear any relationship to what they may receive now that Mr Dunn has retired...

    They used to get what? A few to ten thousand party votes? I'd be surprised if they get 300 this year?

    West Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 887 posts Report Reply

  • simon g,

    More small print: tonight's Newshub poll was Aug 22-30. Which makes some of the responses older than the TVNZ poll before the leaders' debate.

    These details matter.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1321 posts Report Reply

  • Trevor Nicholls, in reply to simon g,

    These details matter.

    They matter so much that it should be mandatory to state them when reporting the headline numbers. The narrative in some places (being written by journalists who should know better) is that National has arrested if not reversed the Labour surge. The details don't support that at all.

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 310 posts Report Reply

  • Bart Janssen, in reply to simon g,

    gave the Greens an extra point ... because I can!

    Since The Greens have polled from 15 to 4% and back to 6% thus far giving them a random point here or there is as good a method as the polls for guessing what they'll have on election day.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 4450 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to Trevor Nicholls,

    They matter so much that it should be mandatory to state them when reporting the headline numbers.

    It was reported in the story on the website – but not by Gower in his news piece. Naughty.

    But in some ways understandable – it would have entailed a comparison with the opposition’s more recent poll, and you don’t pay heaps of money for polling only to talk about the other guys’ fresher poll.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22749 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Russell Brown,

    Enabling the Nats to claim that the two polls show Lab support trending down is not professional journalism.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19683 posts Report Reply

  • simon g,

    Another TVNZ/Colmar Brunton poll out tonight.

    I don't think it's too far-fetched to suggest that Steven Joyce's innumerate mud-chucking was at least partly motivated to influence this poll, although it would only cover the later stages of the polling period.

    (Corin Dann soundbite bingo: "Labour's momentum has stalled ... National recover ... NZ First/Greens struggling for oxygen ..." etc).

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1321 posts Report Reply

  • Tom Semmens, in reply to Bart Janssen,

    Since The Greens have polled from 15 to 4% and back to 6% thus far giving them a random point here or there is as good a method as the polls for guessing what they’ll have on election day.

    I hear tell the Greens themselves are confident they are polling in the 6.5% range, but their big worry is historically they need to be polling at least this much to get over the threshold on election day, given how lazy their supporters are.

    Sevilla, Espana • Since Nov 2006 • 2212 posts Report Reply

  • Trevor Nicholls, in reply to simon g,

    Another TVNZ/Colmar Brunton poll out tonight.

    Will it be "explosive"? Or "dramatic"? Will it "turn [our] expectations on their heads"? Might it be "career-ending"? Or herald "desperate times"?

    Punters need to be told these things. Pundits need to say them.

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 310 posts Report Reply

  • simon g,

    Apologies for the fake news, the poll is out tomorrow! (I'm blaming Twitter ... )

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1321 posts Report Reply

  • Dennis Frank, in reply to Trevor Nicholls,

    Will it be "explosive"?

    Simon Dallow said it will. The poll is actually out tomorrow night. Again no reference to what is likely to explode, but their ratings would take a hit if the poll result announcement caused viewers' tv sets or heads to explode, so you can see why they're being cagey...

    New Zealand • Since Jun 2016 • 292 posts Report Reply

  • simon g, in reply to Dennis Frank,

    I didn't hear Dallow say that in the bulletin I just watched. When was this?

    He certainly shouldn't say it, because he doesn't know. The results would not be available yet, even to insiders.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1321 posts Report Reply

  • simon g,

    Again, the Herald creates confusion (cock-up not conspiracy I believe, but still):

    A new poll on CGT.

    Polling period? The graphic and the article give 2 different answers (for now, anyway - will probably be edited once they notice what an old sub would have seen in 5 seconds).

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1321 posts Report Reply

  • John Farrell,

    Interesting Colmar Brunton. National's own polling must be showing the same thing.

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 485 posts Report Reply

  • Dennis Frank, in reply to simon g,

    I did see him say that, Simon - could've been in a promo, or maybe a back-announce in the bulletin. I registered the second use of 'explosive'. It does indeed imply an advance leak to the newsroom.

    Probably the only thing that exploded as a result of the poll was Steven Joyce's credibility, if you liken that to a balloon. A further 2% shifted out of the Nat supporters' camp as a result of four top economists informing the public that the eleven billion dollar mistake Joyce told us is in Labour's policy costing doesn't actually exist. Own goal by Joyce.

    I presume the One News team feels obliged to hype its polling because they think viewers are motivated by perception rather than reality, but it just leaves their attempt at fake news seeming feeble compared to the Joyce turd.

    New Zealand • Since Jun 2016 • 292 posts Report Reply

  • Dennis Frank,

    A fortnight till election day, and Labour has now established a small lead over National: Colin James quotes the RNZ poll of polls (http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/338948/labour-a-nose-ahead-of-national-on-the-averages). The site methodology averages the latest three polls (unspecified).

    Confirmed by the latest Bauer Media Insights IQ poll of 1528 Kiwi voters which puts Labour at 37%, National at 34% (poll includes undecideds 8%), and their lead is greater than the margin of error (2.5%) - see http://www.noted.co.nz/currently/politics/poll-labour-national-and-the-crucial-8/

    So lots of swing-voters seduced by lipstick-on-a-pig turning it into a cute wee bunny? Some mastermind figured policies are a tedious bore, who needs them? I saw Mike Hutcheson tell Duncan Garner he reckons Labour are currently around 46% because Colmar Brunton only use landlines. That presumes younger voters are responding more to the zeitgeist. Makes sense.

    New Zealand • Since Jun 2016 • 292 posts Report Reply

  • Tom Johnson,

    There is a bluebelt in National Auckland who have been partying up on the blowout of their house equity, and they don't want that party to end. The meme that Bill English saw us through the GFC is a bit sick, chucking away the ladder for the most needy since 2008 saw us through this, the bluebelt have them to thank. Kiwi style austerity.

    hamilton • Since Mar 2016 • 98 posts Report Reply

  • simon g,

    The Herald has had a poor campaign when it comes to poll reporting. I'm starting to miss Digipoll!

    Latest oddity: a sort-of poll (illustrated by a not-sort-of propaganda video from the Nats) on NZ Chinese voters, which is described as being "at odds with some other mainstream polls". Well, yes, probably because it isn't one.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1321 posts Report Reply

  • Tom Semmens, in reply to simon g,

    Latest oddity: a sort-of poll (illustrated by a not-sort-of propaganda video from the Nats) on NZ Chinese voters, which is described as being “at odds with some other mainstream polls”.

    Given the number of current and ex-National party MPs firmly in the Chinese communist parties NZ fifth column, this doesn't surprise me.

    Sevilla, Espana • Since Nov 2006 • 2212 posts Report Reply

  • Kumara Republic, in reply to simon g,

    Latest oddity: a sort-of poll (illustrated by a not-sort-of propaganda video from the Nats) on NZ Chinese voters, which is described as being "at odds with some other mainstream polls". Well, yes, probably because it isn't one.

    It's not a new thing. I remember reading a Scoop or Newsroom.co.nz article in the run-up to the 1999 election about similar results. So far I can't find it on the Web Archive, and Scoop's archive search is a bit scattershot.

    Keith Ng did his own research on a similar issue a bit over a decade ago, and the results weren't quite as clear cut. Especially once you start breaking down the figures between 1st-generationers, and 1.5ers and 2nd-generationers.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5416 posts Report Reply

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