Posts by Phil Lyth
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Many thanks Sacha. If anyone else wants the words, just ask. Meanwhile I will be looking to Kevin Taylor for an answer
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a disaster might actually even kill the relevant minister
In the unlikely event, as they say on the plane, collective responsibility means any other Minister can immediately act.
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Still on the $15billion angle, I've asked chief press sec Kevin Taylor where the figure came from.
MediaWorks blames Firefox, IE, VodaFail, Norton, and Al Qaeda for video not running. I still can't get the sodding clip to run.
<plaintively> Would any PASer be inclined to transcribe Key's words re $6b cash and $15b for me? Either from here or a recording of same? </plaintiff>
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xkcd
Priceless
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Apologies to those who find talk of EQC reserves to be mind-numbingly soporific.
Sacha, thanks. I would have expected that Ian Simpson would have known about and mentioned a Treasury model (giving a $2b cost) if it actually existed. Am I being diplomatic enough?
I have had problems getting the Key / Campbell video to replay reliably. Nevertheless, I think
Key said the $2b estimate came from a mid-90s model
And that he said EQC has $6b 'cash' and $15b all-up(Figures rounded to the nearest $100 million. Wow, I like doing that)
EQC annual report said that at 30 June 09, they had reserves of $5.6b. NZ Govt securities $3.75b, NZ bank securities $0.25b, global equities $1.6b. Noted that global equities had been hit by global financial crisis. Fair enough.
Whether you count all that, including stocks, as cash is arguable.
NZ Govt financial statements for 11 months to 31 May (full year to 30 June due soon) recorded EQC at $6.1b - so some recovery of global equities.
EQC annual report said their total capacity was $8.1b before calling on Crown garantee. So where does $15b come from???
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"who the hell knows"
I don't disagree. If Simpson hadn't said something, someone else would have done so though.
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On the $2 billion figure: first appeared in an NZPA story filed by Maggie Tait, with this direct quote from EQC chief exec Ian Simpson. Available here on NZH.
Could be interpreted to mean EQC cost for residential plus commercial and any other, or overall total. Interpret to suit yourself.
"It's very early to start estimating the numbers so far," he said.
"At a guess, and it is just a guess so far, we are looking at ...around 100,000 claims in total from the event and the cost will be easily into the hundreds of millions of dollars just for EQC for the residential property... It could reach between one and two billion dollars."
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Ross, from About EQC:
There is currently around $5.6 billion in the (Natural Disaster) Fund which is backed up by reinsurance from overseas groups and a Government Guarantee. The Government Guarantee ensures that EQC will always be able to meet its obligations, regardless of the circumstances.
Their 2008/09 Annual Report reported the Fund stood at $5.57 billion at 30 June 2009. And on page 34 it said:
The Commission currently has the capability to cover a
1‑in‑1000-year event with an estimated value of up to $8.1 billion before having to call on the Crown Guarantee.That suggests to me that reinsurances overseas (=laying off bets) are purchasing cover to the value of $2.5 billion or so. Not explicitly stated by EQC though.
I'd be interested to know if 4 September will attract a payout from reinsurance or if it is not severe enough to do that.
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Vangam, this prescient quote on NZH 30 minutes ago:
Christchurch mayoral aspirant Jim Anderton told CTV on Friday that it would take an earthquake for him to lose the election race against incumbent mayor Bob Parker.
The Wigram MP says is able to see the funny side of what has happened.
He says there has been an earthquake, now he will just have to see how the campaign goes. He says he will ask that contributions he expected at a now-cancelled campaign fundraiser be donated to the mayor's fund.