Posts by Simon Grigg
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I do not find 20% approval to evoke any different sentiment to 9%. I am curious that you do find 9% to 20% means "a clear aberration", if so it must follow that gaining an approval of say 33% would be much more positive than 20% in your eyes.
oh for heavens sake Angus...a 9% rating when some 100 polls are listed at the link, none of which come within a kilometre of you '9%', means your poll is an aberration. You quoted the figure me mean, and to try and defend it just adds another level to your self delusion. We were not talking sentiment, we were talking a polling figure. You were wrong..lets move on and accept it.
How does 538 projecting a McCain win imply to you that McCain is losing? Because to me when they project a McCain win, it appears they are projecting a McCain win. Some kind of misreading is going on for sure.
No, Angus, this is simple but let me explain..that is a projection based on the current polling...it says 'According to our current projections'....please pay attention....There are multitudes of projections out there, changing daily, some have Obama ahead, some McCain. None, unlike you, are incautious enough to say 'this is exactly what is going to happen'. You are still cherry picking and then twisting.
What I am trying to point out to Craig, Simon, et al is that the strategy employed by Obama is smart and intelligent. Disagreement and hilarity ensues.
No what tends to happen is Angus loops whatever themes he's picked on on whatever site he refers to, with quite undertanding the stuff around the edges..like:
Reconciliation with Vietnam, McCain-Feingold, the surge, earmark reform does trump
The Surge..yep article of faith but doesn't stand up to any real scrutiny as the prime reason for a downturn in violence.
Vietnam..yep, he championed it with Clinton, but is was hardly a radical move: it was 20 years after the US defeat, Vietnam already had a defacto diplomatic relationship with the US, and full recognition with just about everyone else on the planet..oh, and there was massive public support for the move. That aside, it was a brave move.
What a shame McCain is unable to live up the 'stand by your ad' provision of McCain-Feingold without telling a lie or two. Isn't it funny how the great reformer became the moral vacuum so quickly?
Which brings us back to Palin again...which has been explained to you so many times, you ignore such without comment and then loop your original argument a day later, thus:
and attack him on his weaknesses.
[/groan]
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Objectively McCain is more experienced, has a greater knowledge of foreign affairs
you mean apart from the bomb bomb bomb Iran stuff and the shoot from hip "We are all Georgians" stuff which had a lot of slightly more worldwise folks in DC, Europe and beyond grimacing. Oh, and the "Alaska is next door to Russia" stuff. I go back the interview in the Singapore Straits Times earlier this year where he said China needed to be contained with carrier groups.....
Having fought in a war a few decades ago, and not that well (he was a very brave prisoner but not a very good naval aviator it seems) his foreign affairs expertise seems stuck in a bygone era, forever re-fighting Vietnam which he is on record as saying is what he measures all FP against.
The world doesn't need that, and at this place in history, with the major shifts in global power axis we're seeing, Obama is a far more attractive option. The world does not need a backward looking cold war warrior, who doesn't quite get it.
Oh, and that bounce seems over, Angus. And its the fading Palin star that seems to be one of the bigger drags for McCain. I'd put your assessment at closer to 50/50.
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But leave her family alone; she's using them to construct the narrative of who she is,
I'm on record here as saying how appalled I was by the Trig episode. But, sorry, I also find the public expression, by Palin, of a desire for privacy for her family and then the presentation of same, including son-in-law to be, on a global stage a couple of days later, a tad hypocritical.
You can't have it both ways.
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Bah "might have"........
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so if they kill the US$, it's sort of like murder-suicide.
yes and no, they are also cushioned by a vast internal market which consumes in an increasingly middle class manner. 1.2 billion people buy a fair amount of almost anything. What they lose is the cream, which has given them that $2tr in the kitty.
Off to HK / Shanghai in 48 hours..gonna be interesting to be there right now.
This piece, including the maps on the page, written before the crash I'd say, is worth a read:
The economic pall heading into the final weeks of the 2008 campaign means that Democrat Barack Obama, representing the party out of power, should be well-positioned to attract voters who are angry or stressed over the tough economy. But not all is doom and gloom for Republican John McCain, because economic hardship seems relatively mild in the wealthier ’burbs where, some analysts say, the election could be won or lost.
In the wake of the stock market plummets in the last day, the last sentence have have a different resonance now.
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Just for a taste of how corrupt the US financial "system" is, take a look at this take on AIG's attempt to save itself by stealing US$20b from its own subsidiaries. All with the proper approval from the "regulators"
Understanding this is a learning curve for many of us, me included, but that was fascinating..and easy....thanks Stephen
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Let's just say that this is not just an American problem. When the default global currency becomes worthless, there could be some flow-on effects even in far-off NZ. IMHO, of course.
Of course, but there is that two trillion dollars that China has in the bank. That'll surely provide them a wee bit of a cushion.
Or maybe they're just waiting to pick up the scraps?
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Attacking Palin is a losing strategy, please stop doing it.
Uhhh, seriously Angus, you still miss the obvious point. It ain't about attacking Palin, it's about the moral corruption that her choice indicates. And no amount of stomping your feet and saying 'it ain't so, it ain't so' is gonna change that.
Nor is cherry picking data to suit. Picking one poll which is a clear aberration on Congressional Approval is just that, and it's dishonest. Best you wander over to Real Clear Politics (a site with a Republic lean BTW) and look at the ongoing data from a multitude of polling organisations.
But I'm with you on FiveThirtyEight, there has been a slide in the past week, but if you are closely following the data and commentary on that and a variety of other sites, which I am, you'll notice that you are rather misreading the trends. McCain has lost a bit of ground this week and quite a bit in the past seven days, especially if you factor in polling lag. But I guess you missed that, eh?
And if you couldn't quite get the 100% thing, maybe that's why you are misreading polling data.
My points still stand.
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But then, as I said, I'm not an economist, so what do I know?
Then again..what do they know:
Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. (symbol LEH)
ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS
=====================
11-Sep-08 Citigroup: Hold
10-Sep-08 Argus: Hold
10-Jun-08 Wachovia: Mkt Perform
10-Jun-08 Credit Suisse: Neutral
24-Mar-08 Oppenheimer: Performfrom Yahoo Finance
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anti american
Just to give you a chance, Sage since you've tossed in one of those writer-is-a-dick terms..can you expand what you mean by that?