Hard News: Prospects
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Well. I was just chatting with Helen, our esteemed PM, about my prediction, she figures 38.7% against my 38% but was , visibly, apprehensive about my suggestion of a tactical vote for NZF. Trotter agrees with a tactical Winston vote (well he would eh). If you're in Epsom go National, however wrong it seems, it will kill ACT and the yellow peril we know as dancing Rodney. It's gonna be tight folks but we are in with a chance. Be smart, think before you vote. Good luck Labour and may the force be with you, as it were.
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WH,
Nice post Russell.
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Time again to throw in a few thoughts. I completely disagree with your rosy assessment of Clark legacy. She is the most poisonous politician since Muldoon and arguably rivals him.
You dont see a ringing endorsement of state assistance when the state house bred kid made good beats the boarding schooled child of a rich landowner?
National & Winnie introduced a super scheme in the nineties and Labour opposed it for political reasons. It kept the money in individual accounts rather than the states. So they win now brownie points from history.
Gould identifies productivity growth as being the most important thing to aim for. It trumps working longer as it raises per capita income. And this government has broken the positive trend in productivity growth that started in 1993 after the National government solved the last financial crisis they were left with by a Clark government.Gould is right that the high interest rates and over valued exchange rates have held NZ back. Both major parties bear responsibility for that poor strategy. They should fear inflation less now and reduce interest rates to US/UK levels.
Key is a pragmatist. Ideology does not win in currency markets. decisiveness and practicality does. he is not going to be blinded by any ideological model but is going to do what works. Which is why you see investment in New Zealand and a willingness to spend money on infrastructure.
Nothing Cullen did broke New Zealand. It was just the slow decline brought about by the owner stripping too much cash out of a business over the long term.
The failure to rein in LAQC was part of the cause of the real estate boom. National will deal with the bust and cretins will be accusing them in future of hard right policies rather than dealing with the mess Clark and ilk created. Just like the last time National took over from Labour.
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Fark.
Can't sleep.
Just like a few days back.This whole political junkie thing, it's very xkcd.
Stupid one-track-mind-ism.
Still, at least there's some bargains going at predictmarkets.net
Buy low, sell high, have more patience than I.
At least it's not real money.Oh, wait, I'm +50k. Damn it, it's not real money.
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Hi sage. I'd rather strongly debate several of your points, but I think it's proper to steer clear of anything that looks like an exhortation to vote a particular way, it now being Election Day.
I'd be grateful if everyone did the same until the polls close.
But: I think reports from polling places etc would be fun.
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Indeed RB, but I don't think it would be breaking electoral law to quote from my Electoral Act-cmpliant 180 Seconds piece this week:
__The tumult and the shouting dies;
The Captains and the Kings depart:
Still stands thine anceint sacrifice,
An humble and a contrite heart.
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget — lest we forget!__There’s a bit more tumult and shouting to go, this Election Day. As the polls are still open until seven o’clock, it would be inappropriate and pointless to comment on the domestic political week that was. Except to say, if you haven’t voted yet haul arse and exercise your basic political right — and responsibility — as a citizen. After Public Address Radio, naturally.
That's Public Address Radio, five o'clock today on Radio Live. :) Ans as Russell said, whether I agree with you or not, mad respect not only to those who are getting off their arses to vote, but everyone who has participated in the practical work of democracy.
But how could I check out without a final quote from The Standard:
The site now has comments off until after voting stops at 7pm this evening.
The explanation for this state of unusual state of affairs is in this post. But essentially some wingnut is sure to complain to the electoral commission in a pathetic attempt to highlight electoral law. They’ve done it before, so we will be far more compliant than required.
Sigh...
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I'll be voting this evening, at a booth just round the corner from my house, on my way home from work. Then, after dinner, I'll put on a DVD - Pink Floyd's "Pulse" should be right.
On Sunday morning, I'll turn on the radio, to hear the worst - I'm too old to stand the drawn out torture of the election results. -
That's Public Address Radio, five o'clock today on Radio Live. :) Ans as Russell said, whether I agree with you or not, mad respect not only to those who are getting off their arses to vote, but everyone who has participated in the practical work of democracy.
One thing I really liked about our spin doctors' lunch for tonight's show was that it humanised the politics, and underlined that reasonable people can disagree.
Also, that those guys genuinely felt their own lapses when I asked them about regrets in the job. It was enlightening and enjoyable.
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Well today has dawned bright and sunny - hopefully to dispel my gloomy prediction upthread
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It will be interesting to see how the 'get out the overseas vote' campaign has gone. Given, I assume, hundreds of thousands of potentially eligible NZ voters overseas there's the chance they'll effect the outcome.
Anyone know at what point they're counted? As far as I know the diplomatic posts allow voting until this evening, so it'll be a while before they're all back in NZ.
In addition overseas votes could be faxed or mailed directly back to Wellington.
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Moz,
Overseas voting I suspect depends a lot on where overseas you are. In the worst case I expect snailmail transport of votes to a trained professional (ie, posting back from the US to NZ), but in countries that have an electoral bureaucrazy probably the same fast turn-around as NZ. In Melbun we voted at the AEC offce using their staff so it was all fast and smooth (except for the "can't read or pronounce Maori to save themselves" that they acknowledged).
By my rough guess if NZ did the Italian thing of having overseas electorates Oz would get about 8 to 10. Which would be kinda cool. I'd like my own local MP.
The one thing that does gripe me every election is that I'd like STV in the electorate so I can vote for a minor party or two before voting against the safe incumbent who I dislike with some intensity. Instead I hold my nose and vote for my second least liked candidate.
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(I'm prepared to feel more optimistic if Giovanni offers one of those sure-fire predictions of a left-led government that he used for Obama)
Sorry, David, I just don't feel it. It has recently transpired that the in-laws might be voting Labour, and that ordinarily would point to a landslide for our side... but not this time.
Anyway, I'm not assuming a damn thing before the only poll that really matters has even opened.
heh... reminded me of one of Letterman's recent lists, things that John McCain can say to turn this thing around: The only poll that matters is the one in my pants.
I'm sorta resigned to some form of right-wing government being formed but I comfort myself with the (potentially naive) thought that whomever wins, they will do what they genuinely believe is best for New Zealand.
Yep, I'm terrified about that. For instance, they genuinely think that privatising prisons is good for New Zealand.
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Well, says tussock, the cold chased me off to bed from the prospects thread instead, but sleep and I didn't see eye to eye.
Today my voice is as strong as the PM's, at least 'till 7pm, and so is yours if you'll use it. To use it or lose it, today. Eh.
I blame sleep deprivation.So, the challenge was laid to make this thread hit 10k? 60 pages, longest ever. I'll tell all of my quick walk to the booth if someone else breaks the ice, K?. 'S just, mine serves a very small community, and the two old dears who always seem to staff it are the only ones ever there. S'pose I better go.
And yes, nice days give better turnouts, which in turn favours you know who, which would make most of this board reasonably content.
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Nope, wait, this terrifies me more:
And competent; she runs a good school gala.
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n the worst case I expect snailmail transport of votes to a trained professional (ie, posting back from the US to NZ)
Snail mail has to be in Wellington by this afternoon so shouldn't unduly delay the process.
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Well, I voted and it was painless. Normally we go to a school hall just across the way (Maungawhau Primary if anyone is at all interested), but I just couldn't cope with all those huge generalisation warning bloody Epsom people who just happen to be in the Mt Roskill electorate and vote like they were in the Epsom electorate, so we went to a weeny scout hall just up the road instead. Very quiet, and, even though a poster on the wall said that scrutineers would be wearing different party rosettes just as an example of what they looked like, I found it very offputting that the two scrutineers in this particular place were wearing National thingies. Bah. All very quiet, and very sombre in timbre, and not many people around voting, but quickly done and dusted. You know, having read Jolisa's post, it could have done with some joie de vivre and cupcakes. And I also now have voter guilt because instead of voting for Phil Goff, at the last minute I went with Lisa Er (Green). Still, I like to think of it as a vote of confidence for Mikaere. Happy voting everyone.
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Put me down as another non-sleeper last night. Amateur self-medication proved useless. After 2.5 hours of restlessness I succumbed and took half a sleeping tablet, which worked, but was a bit risky as I had to be up at 7am.
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I voted in Adelaide earlier this week, and took the girls with me. Part of their civic education. Grant Robertson (Labour) in Wellington Central for me, and the Maori party.
Now we wait. We're taking the girls to the local Christmas parade, which promises to be nightmarish - 350,000 people coming and an attempt at a world record Mexican wave. My inner introvert is recoiling, but there's a limit to how much curmudgeonly behaviour we can inflict on our children.
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even though a poster on the wall said that scrutineers would be wearing different party rosettes just as an example of what they looked like, I found it very offputting that the two scrutineers in this particular place were wearing National thingies.
I thought that was illegal? Can anyone help? I suspect this is the hall I will go to and I will say something if someone can inform me of the law.
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Condorcet if you want to express a single member preference. I think we should get one for the party vote too, STV would do, to handle 4.5%ers and left vs right rounding.
For instance, today, ACT, United, and National could all round up while Labour, the Greens, any Progressive all round down, or visa versa, which could change the government either way.
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Grant Robertson (Labour) in Wellington Central for me, and the Maori party.
I am really surprised and curious that you voted Maori Party Deborah, as what rules them out for me is that many of Tariana Turia's comments over the last few years have brought out the Very Angry Feminist in me! Although I completely agree that our options are limited.
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Actually , I'm going to complain anyway, I'll report back later :)
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I voted in Adelaide earlier this week, and took the girls with me. Part of their civic education.
Yeah, my mum did that when I was little. I distinctly remembering her saying we were going to go up to the school because it was boating day. It was very exciting! Had they flooded the field to accomplish this, maybe?
Dear lord, the disappointment. I remember it still.
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thanks sofie - I may, of course, have read the entire thing wrong......
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Jackie. I distinctly remember this last election and it bothered me then also. I suspect it is the same people but thought the law says no electoral officer can be affiliated to any particular party. So I will get back. Going soon, (my man is even polishing his shoes! does it every election) :)
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