Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: A week being a long time in politics

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  • Steve Parks, in reply to Russell Brown,

    And a complete mess of an opinion column from Paul Holmes

    Prediction: He’ll write another mess next week.

    Wellington • Since May 2007 • 1156 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha,

    Te Standard examines the timeline around polling and Key's tea debacle. Useful post.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16794 posts Report Reply

  • Kracklite, in reply to DeepRed,

    And just like a vampire, they'll behave very strangely when forcibly exposed to sunlight.

    I take it that you mean that sparkling isn't involved? Are you sure? As they say, you can't polish a turd, but you can roll it in glitter.

    The Library of Babel • Since Nov 2007 • 980 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to Sacha,

    Useful post.

    I'm not sure "useful" means what you think it does. :)

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12040 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    Feel free to explain why you disagree. It's the only article I've seen that examines the timeline around the recent opinion polls and a certain cuppa.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16794 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Parks,

    And apparently the CEO of Roy Morgan says it is too early for “teapot tapes” to have had an effect on their latest poll, according to this interview at scoop.

    I can’t get the darn thing to play all the way though – can anyone tell me what she says says about the poll in relation to the tea pot matters?

    Wellington • Since May 2007 • 1156 posts Report Reply

  • Kracklite, in reply to Steve Parks,

    As Russell has said rhetorically to Paul Holmes, “What is your fucking point?”, I’m intrigued by the fact that Joyce, Farrar et al are emphasising polls that say that the public don’t feel that the contents of the tape matter overmuch, or that the recording may have been illegal and unethical… and studiously ignoring the real question, as many of us see it, whether the response has been insane. Shirley that’s not an acid tent.

    It’s “interesting” that supposedly neutral information such as poll results are being used to actively frame the terms of the debate – answer first, question second, as Lewis Carroll might have said (although we’ll see if it’s being done successfully).

    The Library of Babel • Since Nov 2007 • 980 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to Sacha,

    Feel free to explain why you disagree. It’s the only article I’ve seen that examines the timeline around the recent opinion polls and a certain cuppa.

    And does so by drawing a conclusion ("Logically, it can only have been the tea tapes") then making a shit load of assumptions that don't add up to me. OK, I know The Standard has a blatant editorial bias (and a rather tiresome compulsion to spite-fuck David Farrar, which he's stupid enough to reciprocate) but Russell or Keith could manage more genuinely useful analysis in the immediate aftermath of a three day bender.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12040 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    The post has some useful information on timing regardless of any analysis you may or may not agree with. You'll notice I don't link to that site often.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16794 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to Kracklite,

    As Russell has said rhetorically to Paul Holmes, “What is your fucking point?”, I’m intrigued by the fact that Joyce, Farrar et al are emphasising polls that say that the public don’t feel that the contents of the tape matter overmuch, or that the recording may have been illegal and unethical… and studiously ignoring the real question, as many of us see it, whether the response has been insane. Shirley that’s not an acid tent.

    Quite. I don't regard poll results as the determinant of right here, and I will not be surprised if any poll damage to National is very modest. It's not about that for me.

    If it turns out that sending police into newsrooms a week out from an election has benefited National politically, I may express some very unhappy thoughts.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 18991 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha,

    Lawyer Andrew Geddis dissects Farrar's shrill response to Holmes's witterings.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16794 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha,

    Hooten believes Joyce is a strategic genius.
    Feel free to disagree, Craig. :)

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16794 posts Report Reply

  • 3410,

    Hooton believes Joyce is a strategic genius.

    Hooton is the punditry version of push-polling, if you ask me. He pretends commentary, but really he's all about selling the talking points; in this case that teapot-tape-gate was a stroke of genius, not a blunder.

    And if you can get enough people to believe that, it becomes so.

    Auckland • Since Jan 2007 • 2618 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to Sacha,

    Feel free to disagree, Craig. :)

    Hear that merry clatter? It's the sound of a couple of crushed up paracetamol tablets being stirred into a freshly made short black. It's all I've got right now.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12040 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Parks, in reply to Kracklite,

    As Russell has said rhetorically to Paul Holmes, “What is your fucking point?”,

    Is that question directed at me?

    Wellington • Since May 2007 • 1156 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to Sacha,

    Lawyer Andrew Geddis dissects Farrar’s shrill response to Holmes’s witterings.

    While the good professor’s energy is admirable and the results can be entertaining, like his willingness to engage with the squeaky element that occasionally infest the DimPost, you find yourself wondering why he bothers. Given Farrar’s tendency to come across as a bad parody of a hair-splittingly pious theologian (anyone remember the endless tying-in-knots nonsense re. the materiality or otherwise of Brash’s emails?), it’s rather like the intellectual equivalent of squeezing zits.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 3564 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to 3410,

    really he's all about selling the talking points; in this case that teapot-tape-gate was a stroke of genius, not a blunder.

    and that it was Key's master-stroke, not Joyce's

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16794 posts Report Reply

  • Kracklite, in reply to Sacha,

    Why am I not surprised? Dorothy Parker, anyone? I'm only surprised it took him this long.

    The Library of Babel • Since Nov 2007 • 980 posts Report Reply

  • Kracklite, in reply to Steve Parks,

    No, not in my case. I’m genuinely sorry if I seemed to be rude. It wasn’t my intention… well, I do often intend to be rude, but not to you or anyone here, in this case.

    The Library of Babel • Since Nov 2007 • 980 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha,

    John Drinnan unmasks the teapot genius.

    Who is advising the PM on this Mexican stand-off with the media?

    A source familiar with the Government communications strategy said the PM's attack on the Herald on Sunday and refusal to explain his comments to John Banks was a strategic decision, rather than a symptom of concern or panic from the media storm.

    It was based on the premise that Key was so popular the public would support the PM and any negative outcome would be less than if the details of his conversation with Banks were actually released, the source suggested.

    The expectation was that any damage to media relations in the campaign could be fixed with a charm offensive in the New Year.

    The sharp edge of the criticism reflects the style of Kevin Taylor, Key's chief press secretary, who lacks the skills of Helen Clark's Mike Munro.

    That said, Steven Joyce can play a heavy hand when media transgress his rules and the Rena debacle revealed his lack of experience in handling a media storm.

    Experienced National strategist Murray McCully is not playing a big role in the case, and that might explain how it has escalated.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16794 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    a couple of crushed up paracetamol tablets being stirred into a freshly made short black

    does that actually work?
    #notametaphor

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16794 posts Report Reply

  • Kracklite, in reply to 3410,

    Hooton is the punditry version of push-polling, if you ask me.

    Couldn't agree more. Had a rant about it on another thread.

    The Library of Babel • Since Nov 2007 • 980 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha,

    While we're at it, here's Lew on Joyce's statistical tactics.

    Leaving aside questions about the veracity of these figures (they could be utterly fabricated and we’d be none the wiser; Bomber reckons they’re bollocks), this actually is a case of a politician deploying polling data to send a message, not only to the media, but to the public: If you care about this you’re out of touch, disconnected, in the minority, obsessed with trivia, and you ought to be ashamed of yourselves.

    While I disagree with his assessment, what’s more interesting is how he framed that assessment: as a normative argument about what election campaigns ought to be about, and what “real New Zealanders” care about; echoing John Key’s “issues that really matter” rhetoric, which is precisely what all the National supporters I’m in touch with have been saying: nothing to see here, it’s a sideshow, can we get back to the substance, and all that.

    Which is pretty ironic given that the Nats have done extremely well for most of the preceding five years by staying the hell away from policy arguments wherever possible.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16794 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Parks, in reply to Kracklite,

    No that’s okay, I thought it probably wasn’t.
    --
    Anyway, I’ve managed to hear most of that scoop interview with Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine. Basically, she’s saying it will be next week before polls really feature any potential impact of the tea tapes issues.

    Wellington • Since May 2007 • 1156 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Parks, in reply to Joe Wylie,

    I used to consider Farrar a valuable commentator. But recently I’m less impressed. Maybe it’s the nearness of the election. He seems to be getting a bit petty sometimes, and his analysis on this tea pot tape issue is way off base.

    Wellington • Since May 2007 • 1156 posts Report Reply

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