When I started working with Matt McCarten, he told me the most important question in any negotiation, on any topic, is: “or you’ll do what?” It’s the answer to that question that determines if you’ve got any leverage; it determines if you’ll ever get what you want.
Having the right answer to “or you’ll do what?” is how McCarten’s Johnny-come-lately Unite union achieved the seemingly impossible, such as getting strip clubs and brothels to let their staff join a union. From A history of the Unite Union:
… a strip club and brothel owner sacked six staff who asked for Unite’s help. We shut down his three premises with a picket and a video camera to take footage of any customers going in – needless to say, none did.
That, in an odd but oddly satisfying segue, brings me to the TPP.
New Zealand’s position on trade, where we unilaterally take down almost all our own tariffs then act completely surprised when nobody listens to our pleas later, has been likened to showing up naked to a strip poker game. Before the game begins, you’ve already lost.
The big problem for Tim Groser right now is that je has no credible answer to “or you’ll do what?” Here’s part of a TPP play I’m writing as of just now:
Groser
I demand more dairy access for New Zealand to Canada, Japan, and the US!
Canada / US / Japan
Or you’ll do what?
Groser
I’m not finished! As a result, I also demand more dairy access for the US to Canada, and as a result I also demand more beef access for Canada to the US, and as a result I also demand…”
Canada / US / Japan
Or you’ll do what?
Groser
Or, or, or I’ll bring the whole TPP down around me in a fit of self-important pique!
Canada / US / Japan
Hahahahahahahaha!
Canada
Eh?
US
Even with your galactic levels of self-important pique, you can’t pull that off.
Japan
You, Tim, need this deal more than it needs you. Here are your choices: cave quietly, or show yourself out.
[Groser caves quietly]
That’s what is going to happen. Groser’s going to cave on our behalf, and New Zealand’s going to suffer as a result. His supremely arrogant idea that New Zealand can defy the will of Canada, Japan, and the US on this is about as laughable as his pathetic bid to become top dog at the WTO.
And, thanks to Groser’s “emotional space” at the moment, we’re going to end up saddled with a bad TPP deal anyway.
We’ll give way on healthcare costs. We’ll give way on our right to legislate in our own public interest. We’ll give way on our ability to restrict foreign land ownership. And, in return, we won’t get any new meaningful dairy access. Heckuva job, Timmy.
Anything else we do get will be scraps, falling off the plates of countries blessed with proper negotiators.
All that is because Tim Groser spent the last 20 years getting naked before stepping out to play strip poker, and had nothing credible to say when the global A team said “or you’ll do what?”