Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: Christchurch: Is "quite good" good enough?

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  • James Norcliffe, in reply to Chris Waugh,

    We decided some time ago that the safest place to live in New Zealand is Hobart.

    Christchurch • Since Sep 2011 • 7 posts Report

  • Steve Barnes, in reply to Lilith __,

    I don’t buy the idea that Maori had experienced major earthquakes in Chch, or that that was why they were only living here on an itinerant basis.

    I think if you take this as a guide to frequency of fault activity it would be hard to believe Maori had no experience of earthquake in the region.

    The Hope and Alpine faults are the most active at 135 and 100-300 repeat times respectively. There is a probability of 65% of a quake in the next 50 years. Damage likely to cover most of the region including infrastructure and lifelines.
    …Major concerns are the immediate destruction with no effective warning, evacuation, casualty treatment and loss of services. There is a long time-frame for recovery and normality, months or years. Christchurch has 150 year return cycle for a MM 7.5 to 8 quake and 1000 years fro a MM 9 quake.

    Here
    This was written in 2005, note the "probability of 65% of a quake in the next 50 years." It was not that unexpected and some analysts would say the quake was "overdue"

    As for the Alpine Fault itself, when that goes it is likely to be of about magnitude 8. This fault is believed to have last moved in about 1717 and a new quake is arguably overdue.

    Peria • Since Dec 2006 • 5521 posts Report

  • Lilith __, in reply to Steve Barnes,

    I think if you take this as a guide to frequency of fault activity it would be hard to believe Maori had no experience of earthquake in the region.

    Yet Maori lived in the Wellington and Wairarapa and Hawkes Bay regions. I believe they may well have experienced earthquakes here in Canterbury. And Kaiapoi, site of a major Maori settlement, was very hard hit in our 4/09/10 quake.

    Avoiding the Chch area due to quakes just seems implausible to me.

    Edit: my last comment wasn't well worded. What I meant was that I didn't think quakes had driven Maori settlement from Chch.

    Dunedin • Since Jul 2010 • 3895 posts Report

  • Hebe, in reply to Russell Brown,

    Shock waves from an eruption will break windows and flatten buildings, fiery fountains of lava will set structures and trees ablaze, and base surges - a ground-hugging, deadly mixture of steam and solid particles - will envelop everything within a 5km radius. All that on Day One.
    The council's hazards page also predicts related earthquakes and tsunami. There's an 8% chance of an eruption taking place in anyone's (80 year) lifespan. Which sounds way too fucking likely for comfort.

    'Kinell. Grabaseat will be busy. Make sure your doombox is portable.

    Christchurch • Since May 2011 • 2899 posts Report

  • Sacha, in reply to Russell Brown,

    There's an 8% chance of an eruption taking place in anyone's (80 year) lifespan. Which sounds way too fucking likely for comfort.

    Not guaranteeing my maths at all, but that seems like about once every couple of centuries. Eeek.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19745 posts Report

  • Richard Aston,

    Not that I'm panicking but is anywhere in NZ safe? Didn't I hear Northland with its sandstone foundation would be safe .

    Northland • Since Nov 2006 • 510 posts Report

  • BenWilson, in reply to Hebe,

    I reckon that if we are going to stay here we must sit lightly on the land in every way.

    That's one approach. Another is to directly engineer solutions to overcome the geographic troubles, possibly at great expense.

    Nothing can stop that: 20 seconds and it's gone.

    Not necessarily. If it's raised enough, it could be entirely unaffected. In fact, if liquefaction is constantly happening, it would make sense to build transport infrastructure that is impervious to it.

    ETA: Since mentioning Amsterdam is popular when discussing well planned transport, it's worthwhile remembering that half of their country would be flooded if it weren't protected by enormous earthworks. The Dutch engineered the solutions to their swampy little country, and IIRC, the Dam is full of trams.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report

  • Sacha, in reply to Richard Aston,

    I've heard Northland is clear.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19745 posts Report

  • Richard Aston, in reply to Sacha,

    I’ve heard Northland is clear.

    Great I have a few NgaPuhi mates should be sweet then.

    Northland • Since Nov 2006 • 510 posts Report

  • Islander, in reply to Richard Aston,

    Not that I’m panicking but is anywhere in NZ safe?

    Oamaru....

    Maori didnt build in Otautahi; Kaiapoi was built relatively late. Maori settled in Akaroa and Lyttelton areas, places with good harbours and stable ground (comparatively.) Swamps werent esteemed as living places though they did have other attractions - which is why ChCh was a fowling & eeling area, seasonally occupied-

    Big O, Mahitahi, Te Wahi … • Since Feb 2007 • 5643 posts Report

  • Ian Dalziel, in reply to Richard Aston,

    Human era...

    Didn’t I hear Northland with its sandstone foundation would be safe...

    More than likely, at least a millennia (or two), and you'll be able to look for traces of previous ruling species who also thought they were in a safe area (or era)...

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7953 posts Report

  • Ian Dalziel, in reply to Islander,

    Bogside...

    fowling & eeling...

    These should be suburb names!

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7953 posts Report

  • Hebe, in reply to BenWilson,

    Nothing can stop that: 20 seconds and it's gone.
    Not necessarily. If it's raised enough, it could be entirely unaffected. In fact, if liquefaction is constantly happening, it would make sense to build transport infrastructure that is impervious to it.

    I cannot believe that's possible having experienced the big quakes. Seeing the tidy road around the corner turn into a roaring torrent of mud and debris up to the top of a large SUV's wheels; standing in the school field basically on top of the fault and feeling and hearing the ground roar, heave, groan and howl more or less constantly for two hours, with the smash! of another quake at odd intervals. I cannot now believe that anything humanity can build will withstand those forces. Maybe I'm traumatised still and it is possible; I don't know.

    Christchurch • Since May 2011 • 2899 posts Report

  • Ian Dalziel, in reply to BenWilson,

    marsh mellow...

    ...it would make sense to build transport infrastructure that is impervious to it.

    at last - the flying car
    or hoverbelt!

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7953 posts Report

  • Sacha, in reply to Hebe,

    I cannot now believe that anything humanity can build will withstand those forces

    Seems reasonable. Idea is to make em easiest to fix/rebuild afterwards. Though that's all relative.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19745 posts Report

  • Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to Ian Dalziel,

    at last – the flying car

    A friend has been working on the Martin Jetpack for years now and all through the earthquakes without too much inconvenience, for it has of course been built and refined down in Chch. So maybe a flying car is not too far off. :)

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report

  • Lilith __, in reply to Sacha,

    Idea is to make em easiest to fix/rebuild afterwards. Though that’s all relative.

    “Ground repair”: making the ground more compacted and therefore stronger, can be done, with enough money. There is the much touted success of Pegasus Town relative to its neighbours in the earthquakes, as a result of major groundworks prior to building.

    I think Ben is right: now we know what the risks are, we can mitigate them.

    PS: that vibro-flotation sounds very relaxing. Perhaps in combination with a G & T. :-)

    Dunedin • Since Jul 2010 • 3895 posts Report

  • Sacha,

    Found ECan's public transport plan for the region, though I have no idea how this fits with the other transport plans from the Chch City Council and CERA.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19745 posts Report

  • Lilith __, in reply to Sacha,

    ECan’s public transport plan

    Something more accessible here. 2 days to go for anyone else wanting to give feedback (online feedback form, just follow my link).

    Dunedin • Since Jul 2010 • 3895 posts Report

  • Hebe, in reply to Sacha,

    You want them to talk to each other? Can't be done.

    Christchurch • Since May 2011 • 2899 posts Report

  • Sacha, in reply to Lilith __,

    crikey, that's another layer.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19745 posts Report

  • Sacha, in reply to Hebe,

    One party will probably pick up the bullhorn and tell the others how it will be. You can guess which one..

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19745 posts Report

  • Lilith __, in reply to Sacha,

    crikey, that’s another layer

    The layer that runs the actual buses :-)
    (it's basically ECan)

    Dunedin • Since Jul 2010 • 3895 posts Report

  • BenWilson, in reply to Lilith __,

    I think Ben is right: now we know what the risks are, we can mitigate them.

    It's a possibility, anyway. I don't really have an opinion about whether it's appropriate. It would be appropriate to research it, is the most I'd say.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report

  • Hebe, in reply to Lilith __,

    the much touted success of Pegasus Town relative to its neighbours in the earthquakes, as a result of major groundworks prior to building

    Pegasus land has yet to convince me; it's a good distance from the faults that have gone so far. It would be interesting to see what happens to that land if the Kaiapoi fault pops (the biggest fault in the area, which is just off the coast by Pegasus).

    Christchurch • Since May 2011 • 2899 posts Report

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