Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: The epitome of reason

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  • Bart Janssen, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    I imagine they believed, as did the equally well paid managers at Solid Energy, and as the similar managers at the banks do, that Chinese growth is unlimited and unstoppable.

    More likely they knew perfectly well it would all fall apart and hundreds of farmers would be bankrupt.

    But they also knew that their bonuses would be safe up until the final collapse and at that point they can walk away with no consequences.

    Then they can get a political sinecure (eg CEO of an SOE) where nobody will ever question their competence and/or buy up some cheap farmland.

    My cynicism is deep but not deeper than that f the CEOs and senior executives in charge of these organisations.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 4460 posts Report Reply

  • Bart Janssen, in reply to Hilary Stace,

    Could all be owned by an SOE like Landcorp and so revenue goes back to NZ government at various stages of the operation.

    Sadly our current political dogma argues that state owned operations are always less efficient than privately owned operations.

    Of course that data calls bullshit on that but nevertheless the media are happy to accept and repeat that lie as well.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 4460 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Hilary Stace,

    Need to change this govt to get those settings you describe. Currently we seem to have no functioning way to do that.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19735 posts Report Reply

  • Johnny Canuck,

    Re: Waitakere man.

    It's worth noting that of the 4 west auckland electorates (New Lynn, Kelston, Te Atatu and Upper Habour), Labour candidates won 3 of them.

    The exception is Upper Harbour, only half of which is in west auckland anyway.

    Vancouver BC • Since Feb 2013 • 25 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Johnny Canuck,

    Well and also Helensville. I consider Henderson Valley to be West Auckland. It fits the cliche much better than New Lynn does. I mean except for the northern slopes of Titirangi, all of the actual Waitakere ranges are in the Helensville electorate (which means that Waitakere man is not naturally a Labour voter). But of course most of Helensville electorate is rural. I'd also consider Mt Albert to be West Auckland, and quite a lot of Mt Roskill. So I make it 5/7 to Labour. Not to mention Te Tai Tokerau, which encompasses a lot of West Auckland and all of the North Shore and everything further north than that. Labour didn't get Tamaki Makau Rau, but nor did National, and it really is primarily a South Auckland electorate.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • Keir Leslie,

    Labour holds the Māori electorate Tāmaki Makarau. Peeni Henare.

    Since Jul 2008 • 1452 posts Report Reply

  • Rob Hosking, in reply to BenWilson,

    How did the list vote go in those seats?

    South Roseneath • Since Nov 2006 • 830 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Keir Leslie,

    Peeni Henare.

    Oops, thx for correction.

    How did the list vote go in those seats?

    FPP style, National took all but Kelston and the two Maori seats (in which Labour smashed them). But MMP style (and the list vote is all about MMP stylez) only Upper Harbour and Helensville went convincingly to National. Maori seats and Kelston firmly Labour with confidence from Greens. In Te Atatu, Mt Albert and Mt Roskill, Winston decides. In New Lynn it's so close he'd probably have to be in bed with Colin Craig, otherwise a coalition of every left wing party would give it to Labour, and they'd all hold the balance of power. But individual counting of electorates as mini-MMPs doesn't work. We aggregate all votes across the 9 electorates that have some West Auckland in them as:

    National: 107,632
    Labour: 88,230
    Green: 32,477
    NZF: 22,228
    Maori: 5,927

    Colin Craig doesn't get a look in because he won no electorates and didn't make the threshold. Same for IMP. So Winston decides in West Auckland (with a massive dollop of the North Shore, Maori north of the Manukau Harbour, and the rural hinterlands of Helensville). He probably goes with National, although he could keep the Greens out with the help of the Maori Party and go with Labour. But I would think he'd go with National. Alternatively, the Greens could prostrate themselves to National to keep Winston out, or a Grand Coalition could seal it for the big two, keeping everyone out. Both of those are outside shots.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to Hilary Stace,

    Heard a builder say that the best timber in New Zealand is sitting on the wharf waiting to be shipped offshore as whole logs.

    I know Builders and I know Truck drivers and I know some present and past Forestry workers. ALL of them say the best timber is on the wharves. ALL of them are a part of logging it, getting it there, or have to build with inferior choices. I just watched an entire forest felled at the end of the road, all of it heading to Marsden Wharf. Take a drive through the Brynderwyns, Waipu Cove side is felled, gone to the Wharf and as logs, worth little compared to processed on return, because ,you guessed it, it comes back worth top dollar! Why anyone in Govt. would think that giving China farms and information, and quality cheap timber would have no effect on our 2 industries, should have their heads read by a shrink.

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • Kirk Serpes, in reply to Russell Brown,

    Yes! And they also have big demographic shifts in their favour. That's not to discount the hard work they've put into building progressive infrastructure and technology. They're winning the arms race, and the race race.

    Auckland • Since May 2015 • 20 posts Report Reply

  • Kirk Serpes,

    This "Waitakere man" caricature is a gross oversimplification of how we need to be looking at the electorate. NZ Post has done some great work in breaking up the country into unique micro-cultural niches. Look up their Genius Survey project. I think it's based on the VALS stuff done in the US.

    At a basic level it's about categorising people based on where they sit in the Maslow hierarchy, because that is a stronger determinant of the decisions they would make than let's say their gender, race, or age on it's own. So while we do have some people, like the ones on this blog that care about big existential issues, there are others who simply about making ends meet. And when we talk about these big ideas (as worthy as they are) we lose relevance.

    Now to be fair, those are not the only two types of people. There are a lot of subgroups each with their own motivations and values. And success at the elections and in campaigns in general is more about speaking to their emotional needs. That doesn't mean we don't talk about climate change, inequality and the death of broadcasting per se. It just means we have to take the time to really understand them and use language and stories that make it relevant.

    Crosby and Key excel at this. As does Obama. They don't waste time with people they cannot convert. They throw red meat to their base to get them to generate energy and organising power. And they give a sympathetic shoulder to people in the middle who need a little coaxing to get on board.

    Auckland • Since May 2015 • 20 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to BenWilson,

    I consider Henderson Valley to be West Auckland. It fits the cliche much better than New Lynn does.

    That is one of the poorest suburbs in the whole country. Not average westside by any means.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19735 posts Report Reply

  • jh,

    The immigration policy review in 1986 was part of a much larger
    agenda for change in New Zealand (Bedford 1996). It was not essentially a
    change in state policy with a primary focus on one region of the world, as
    Parr (2000:329) suggests, although clearly through the 1980s and 1990s
    immigration from countries in Asia was a highly topical issue for both
    politicians and the public. The attitudes of New Zealanders in the mid-1990s
    towards immigration may not have reflected the positive perspective on the
    value of diversity in our society that is contained in the Review of
    Immigration Policy August 1986. But this does not mean that the globalisation
    of immigration to New Zealand was an “unintended consequence of policy
    changes in 1986”. It was a deliberate strategy, based on a premise that the
    “infusion of new elements to New Zealand life has been of immense value to
    the development of this country to date and will, as a result of this
    Government’s review of immigration policy, become even more important in
    the future” (Burke 1986:330). The data on arrivals, departures, approvals,
    refugee flows and net migration gains and losses reported in this paper
    indicates that “the infusion of new elements” into New Zealand society is
    proceeding apace. There is no suggestion in immigration policy in 2002 that
    this will not “become even more important in the future”, as Burke (1986)
    assumed in the mid-1980s.

    New Zealand’s population is undergoing a profound transformation in
    terms of its ethnic and cultural composition. This transformation is being
    driven by two key processes. The first of these is differential ageing of the
    major components of the resident population with the dominant “white”
    population experiencing structural ageing more rapidly than the Maori and
    Pacific Island components (Pool 1999). The second is international
    migration which is seeing a replacement in numerical terms of tens of
    thousands of New Zealanders who are moving overseas by immigrants from
    countries in Asia, Europe and Africa especially. This process of population
    replacement is occurring at a time when natural increase amongst all
    components of the New Zealand resident population is falling. International
    migration is thus playing an increasingly important role in changing the
    ethnic and cultural composition of the population, but to understand this
    role it is necessary to examine both the immigration of new residents as well
    as the emigration of New Zealanders. Both dimensions are essential for
    appreciating the globalisation of international migration in New Zealand.

    http://www.waikato.ac.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/76554/nzpr02-28-bedford.pdf

    So Labour decided we need to replace the population and didn't feel it needed to ask the public? You would think that if something had been of "immense value" it shouldn't be a hard sell? This is a globalist agenda which attempts to break the notion of a nation state based on people who (largely) share a common ancestry (kinship) with a state where "nobody thinks they’re the cat's pyjamis". It is applied Marxism; yet you still think you can whistle and the NZ working classes will come running?
    In other words (as in the UK) Labours globalists are at odds with the working classes.

    According to 3 News -Reid Research prior to the last election

    62 percent of voters want tighter restrictions on immigration, while only 35 percent say leave it.

    84 percent of NZ First voters want immigration restricted. Sixty-eight percent of Labour voters agree, along with 58 percent of Green Party voters.

    http://www.3news.co.nz/David-Cunliffe-blames-migrants-for-housing-crisis/tabid/1607/articleID/345855/Default.aspx#ixzz33jj2pF7w

    Since May 2007 • 103 posts Report Reply

  • Kumara Republic, in reply to Sofie Bribiesca,

    I know Builders and I know Truck drivers and I know some present and past Forestry workers. ALL of them say the best timber is on the wharves. ALL of them are a part of logging it, getting it there, or have to build with inferior choices. I just watched an entire forest felled at the end of the road, all of it heading to Marsden Wharf. Take a drive through the Brynderwyns, Waipu Cove side is felled, gone to the Wharf and as logs, worth little compared to processed on return, because ,you guessed it, it comes back worth top dollar! Why anyone in Govt. would think that giving China farms and information, and quality cheap timber would have no effect on our 2 industries, should have their heads read by a shrink.

    We have the curious case of local sawmills that could turn out value-added product shutting down left right & centre for some years now - most likely I suspect due to currency volatility - while Fletchers and Carters solidify their duopoly on building materials.

    And we keep getting told that NZ remains over-reliant on exporting primary products, while much of our know-how still has to go overseas because there's no gainful work for them here, or they get shouted down as 'PC gone mad'. Shaun Hendy's Get Off The Grass comes to mind.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5439 posts Report Reply

  • Rosemary McDonald, in reply to Sofie Bribiesca,

    Why anyone in Govt. would think that giving China farms and information, and quality cheap timber would have no effect on our 2 industries, should have their heads read by a shrink.

    Auntie Jenny has advice for those in the North....http://www.nzherald.co.nz/northern-advocate/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503450&objectid=11456986

    She challenged the Northland businesswomen to abandon outdated, inherited prejudice against foreign investment.

    "I challenge you as businesspeople to not suspend your judgment or values, but don't bring your prejudice to the table," she said.

    "Are we open for business or have we grandma on our shoulder?

    Waikato, or on the road • Since Apr 2014 • 1346 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to Rosemary McDonald,

    Auntie Jenny has advice for those in the North....

    Too bad about Christchurch

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4593 posts Report Reply

  • jh,

    In Bed Together: Marxism, Capitalism, and Immigration [Diversity Dividend]

    Far from being the natural defenders of the working classes, modern leftist parties are in bed with the forces of globalization and big business which cares nothing about the negative impact of mass immigration on the host society, to say nothing of protecting the working classes, the element in society most harmed by mass immigration and displacement, Ironically, workers naturally turn to leftist parties to protect their economic interests, only to find these parties support policies that drive down wages and transform communities, without seeking the consent of the working class.

    Bolton demonstrates that organized labour in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century was the enthusiastic vanguard of opposition to mass immigration. In Australia, such eminent labour leaders as W.G Spence, Joseph Chifley, and Arthur Caldwell formed the frontline of labour opposition to cheap third world labour (Bolton, pp. 20-25). Far from being racists, these men were the champions of the Australian workman at a time when organized labour in that country was just beginning to establish itself as a force to be reckoned with. Indeed, at that time in British Commonwealth history, arguably the most effective opposition to mass immigration was provided by organized labour. This leadership was by no means mere xenophobes or bigots, as they would be characterized in today’s politically correct media. For labour leaders, opposing mass immigration was akin to protecting the economic and social livelihood of the working classes from unfair and detrimental competition.

    http://www.immigrationwatchcanada.org/2015/05/04/in-bed-together-marxism-capitalism-and-immigration/

    Quite a difference (and a whole new ball game).

    Since May 2007 • 103 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to Rosemary McDonald,

    From that, I now see why Mike Sabin waltzed into managing the Carrington Estate Golf course resort. Was wondering why he jumped into employ up here so quickly, when it's well known what he's been done for. Sad too that the whatawhiwhi park is making way for housing the Carrington Estate staff. That place attracted many campers. It's literally on the beach.
    Ah well, all in the name of progress eh?

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • andin,

    a whole new ball game

    no just another nail in the coffin for our species

    raglan • Since Mar 2007 • 1890 posts Report Reply

  • jh,

    I think the problem is that Russell Brown types live in a rarefied atmosphere. We go through a sorting early on in life and left-wing academics tend to hop in the lift to the top floor. It isn’t that they don't struggle but it is a struggle tempered by a probability of success. It is easy for these types to believe that the worlds problems can be solved by (eg) a road from Africa to Europe ("they will come and work and then go back").
    There is also a degree of othering of lesser mortals. They see all that is bad in those chimpanzee they left at the bottom of the building; they are above human nature: they carry the light of the world and will cajole the chimpanzee with their eloquence and superior intellect.
    p.s
    I see the polls show Andrew Little still can't get the Labour car started.

    Since May 2007 • 103 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to jh,

    left-wing academics tend to hop in the lift to the top floor.

    Pretty sure Russell didn't come in the top floor of any academic process, given that he has never even been to University. AFAIK, he worked his way up through journalism the way it used to be done, from the ground floor, and if you're confusing him having decent writing skills with being an academic, that says a lot about your expectations of journalists these days.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to jh,

    I think the problem is that Russell Brown types live in a rarefied atmosphere. We go through a sorting early on in life and left-wing academics tend to hop in the lift to the top floor.

    You may want to address your complaints to someone who is, or ever has been, a left-wing academic.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22843 posts Report Reply

  • Stephen Judd,

    Pardon me if I don't find Kerry Bolton a credible reference on immigration, or indeed anything.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 3122 posts Report Reply

  • Stephen Judd,

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 3122 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to Stephen Judd,

    Pardon me if I don’t find Kerry Bolton a credible reference on immigration, or indeed anything.

    And I’m becoming very weary of jh’s single-issue obsessions over immigration and multiculturalism.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22843 posts Report Reply

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