Hard News: Three months after
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recordari, in reply to
EQC alone has 40 reinsurers. Each of them has subsequent reinsurers. Cats to be herded. A phenomenal challenge for the world’s largest ever insurance event. (After the May 23rd deadline passed, EQC had received 344,364 claims, with 510,000 individual claims in that. Those numbers are far higher than Hurricane Katrina, higher than lowly insured Japan.)
That is both staggering and sobering. Not something that will just be resolved by rhetoric.
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Hebe, in reply to
Which is why Cera absolutely needed the powers it has been given in law if anything is to happen in this city (all the city, not just the CBD).
The rest of the info about the seismic lie of the land can be translated from geologist-filtered-through-polly-speak: buggered if we know but there'll probably be another big one in the next couple of years, maybe on the same faults, maybe on another fault we don't know about. So maybe the insurers and reinsurers are right; why bother doing anything other than rough-as-guts make-safe work for a least a couple of years, more like five? I hear that permanent remedial work on the roads, sewers, power network etc won't be started for at least a year after the last 5-or-over.
Meanwhile hundreds of other households are unable to go home because of rockfall risks around the hills while the powers-that-be squabble over who will pay for the rock blasting needed to make hillsides safe. Another untold story.
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[Christchurch insurance claims are] higher than lowly insured Japan
For comparisons with Japan, you do need to bear in mind that most buildings in Japan have a design life of only ca. 25 years, and have zero book value beyond that.
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Islander, in reply to
Actually, the Sumner/Redcliffs story has been told - it's not just blasting but also clearing the existing debris...
I have friends who are sedimentary geologists with an additional discipline in earthquakes. The quoted likelihood of large aftershocks/new biggies is BASED on previous events of this kind of magnitude BUT - earthquake-forecasting is like weather-forecasting -without the satelites! Still chaotic, but blinder-
what is certain: there will be other, big, 'aftershocks' - and what the pollies and local body people can actually do about this - aside from run round in everdecreasing circles - is
MAKE VERY SURE EMERGENCY SERVICES AT EVERY LEVEL ARE RIGHT UP TO SCRATCH and
every inhabitant IN CHCH has access to clean water, power, adequate shit facilities (frankly chemo toilets were a sad stopgap measure) food & cooking
facilities and emergency housing (who-ever thought up the campervan idea? Gah! Gak!)
because
otherwise
a lot of the city's most precious resourse - citizens- are going to go away. -
Hebe,
Right with you on the need for emergency services and back-up plans. i hope they don't go ahead with the risky idea of a combo essential services HQ. Seems a time for decentralisation rather than the opposite.
RE Sumner/Redcliffs : yes the red-sticker saga has been told, but the current chapter in the saga has not. Briefly: the rockfall threat to main access roads for the port is being dealt with. The geotech-ers have formulated a plan to deal with the threat to less strategically important roads. The work is awaiting the decision about who will pay. Most of the land belongs to the city council and some to private landowners. Debris I don't know about; the roads out towards that way are clear now (I go there at least once a week), but there must be a lot of rock in backyards.
As for earthquake science: it's a young discipline. There is so much still to know.
A fact from the make-safe builder this week: 30,000 chimneys have fallen or need to be removed. Should solve the smog problem.
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Lilith __, in reply to
That last paragraph is rather chilling, and perhaps not very helpful:
As hard as it is we just have to wait a little longer. In many ways this is probably the calm before the storm, a storm which I suspect is likely to fall upon us in the depths of a long, cold, Canterbury winter. All the more reason to hold the ones you love close, do the things you enjoy best, and try as hard as you can to keep the faith that we must be in for brighter days to come.
Something else we have to be frightened of? Oh great.
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Lilith __, in reply to
And anyone in NZ who doesn’t have a full civil defence emergency kit, or who has an unreinforced brick chimney – get it sorted. You could be very glad you did!
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Hebe, in reply to
Yeah but we survived the last one, and that was a 2g bounce, far greater than any other (Western) urban area has experienced since records began. Stay centred and try to believe in the positives. That way if it does happen again you'll be strong enough to deal with what you have to, and we all did excellently, eh?
I have found arranging a what-if overdraft helpful; it means I can take the offspring and run to a relly's bach in the Coromandel if I just can't cope.
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Islander, in reply to
Not everyone can do the what-if overdraft thing (especially if your house is carked and you no longer have a job.) As long as the necessities are provided, and there is hope of improvement, people will stay.
BUT.... -
Islander, in reply to
Hey! I've a stainless-steel chimney and totally organised getaway plans eh!
But I live on the West Coast; have experienced major natural disasters, and expect this kind of crap to happen... -
Steve Barnes, in reply to
I have friends who are sedimentary geologists
They've settled down then?.
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Islander, in reply to
Heh!
There are big rock geologists and smallstuff geologists and there is - apparently- a pecking order among them. Sedimentologists now have have an upper hand - they really can, from core studies, know more about things like earthquakes & tsunamis than big rock geologists.And yep! In a strange way, I an really happy that my sedimentologist mates have a place to settle down - here! In Big O! Where some quite large tsunami events have taken place (she adds, in squeaky wee letters, in the past...)
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Islander, in reply to
I suppose you could say they'e layered down-
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Hebe, in reply to
As the house is only half-poked, I thought it was a good time to arrange the overdraft. You're right many, many are at the end of a stretched rope here. Partner went on a rare trip to one of the big malls today and came home saying he could just see the desperation on faces.
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...with those odds..it's great the church Casino... has braved the odds and opened...rising from the red zone...wow staff intact...hey it is the Monaco GP this weekend...will the germon energy drinks man triumph over the whiskey silver machine...do ya still get a free meal on ya birthday? (Only if you show ID)
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Some demolition company chiefs are apparently unfamiliar with the notion of shiftwork.
After a brief visit to the city, international agency Architecture for Humanity chief executive Cameron Sinclair yesterday told the Sunday Star-Times he was shocked at the slow pace of deconstruction work in the quake-damaged city's centre.
Mr Sinclair, who helped with rebuilding New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, said the city could not afford to take weekends off when there were so many buildings that needed to come down before any reconstruction work could begin.
Around 1000 buildings in central Christchurch have been identified as needing to be demolished.
However Southern Demolition director Alan Edge said the comments were ridiculous.
"You can't work men seven days," he told The Press. "Whoever said they should be working seven days is ridiculous. People have families and life outside work."
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That's presuming there are sufficently capable people to run more than one shift. Maybe there are only X people who can drive the demolition machines, and there are enough machines for them to do a full week's work Monday - Friday. You can go from 40 people working to 80 in one shift if you can have them working all at once, shift work only makes sense if there's limited physical space of plant to work with.
I presume there's a bunch of overtime going in already - I read somewhere about demolitions happening in the evening.
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Sacha, in reply to
Maybe there are only X people who can drive the demolition machines
Surely not workforce planning issues exacerbated by cutting industry training programmes and apprenticeships? Or failure to operate a real market economy where pay rates go up until demand is filled (by people from other countries in this case). Or does that only apply to CEOs perhaps?
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Hebe, in reply to
Or just impatience because it's an unbelievably massive job. Alan Edge has never been shy of a grabbing an opportunity to make a buck or 10 million. He is in the same position as a lot of tradesmen: how big does he go and how long will the work last if he tools up and buys a new fleet of trucks, diggers and the rest. Employees aren't the problem, labour is easy to hire, easy to fire. But spending up large on equipment to find that the work has dried up in a year or two is another matter.
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Steve Barnes, in reply to
But spending up large on equipment to find that the work has dried up in a year or two is another matter.
This is why we have hire companies and lease arrangements, plant is not the problem either. The problem is with cashflow, firms are going to the wall out there (no pun intended) waiting for payments from EQC
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Surely not workforce planning issues exacerbated by cutting industry training programmes and apprenticeships?
Given that there's a fair bunch of news stories coming out of Christchurch with people complaining that buildings are being knocked down too fast, I'm unsure if there's an actual problem that suddenly requires more demolition workers, more equipment for them to drive, or shift work.
Especially since it's largely not going to be knocking the buildings down that is going to take a crapload of time, and a fuckload of money, it's building their replacements that will do that. One person and a crane could destroy a house and drag off the debris in well under a hundredth of the time it would take a second person to build its replacement.
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Lilith __, in reply to
it’s largely not going to be knocking the buildings down that is going to take a crapload of time
In some cases, it is. High-rise buildings in the CBD need to come down before anything can be done in the surrounding area. There are plenty of buildings that are basically fine but can’t be accessed or used until those highrises come down. the prospect of waiting up to a year for that to happen is pretty grim.
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At least old road warning signs can be
repurposed in Sydenham and the CBD...
things like;
- Dislodged Masonry Ahead
- Wandering Stock
(and cash)CERA will be installing their new signs soon, including this obvious one
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recordari, in reply to
CERA will be installing their new signs soon
I'm resisting the temptation to play a Rage Against the Machine song.
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Still resisting. -
In some cases, it is. High-rise buildings in the CBD need to come down before anything can be done in the surrounding area. There are plenty of buildings that are basically fine but can’t be accessed or used until those highrises come down. the prospect of waiting up to a year for that to happen is pretty grim.
But that's also not likely to be a problem of people not working shifts, 7 days a week.
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