Hard News: Time to Vote
249 Responses
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krothville, in reply to
(Disclaimer: I party voted IM, and I’m bloody old. Now what about all the yoof that fiftysomethings who really should have known better were predicting would be motivated & mobilised by Dotcom’s shitemusic?)
My bet will be that a lot of them had to cast special votes because of enrolling too late to be on the printed list (my vote included). So they won't be finalised til Monday.
I wanted so badly to vote for IMP, but with everything hanging on Hone, and Labour campaigning hard against him (serious wtf moment), I decided not to risk a wasted left vote.
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tussock, in reply to
Now what about all the yoof
Oh, please. Everyone tries to mobilise their own particular kind of youth voter, and everybody is somewhat successful. A whole lot of them vote National, but still enjoy the free music and also hate the shit out of John Key.
Internet-Mana had bloody good policies, good on you for voting for them. We'd have been a better country for having them in parliament. But that's life under the 5% threshold. Keeps out the riff raff, don't you know.
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Joe Wylie, in reply to
Oh, please. Everyone tries to mobilise their own particular kind of youth voter, and everybody is somewhat successful.
IM wasn’t. While it certainly wasn’t the reason they attracted my vote, their was a lot of facetious and condescending hot air blown about how Dotcom’s faux musical dabblings gave him some kind of potential cred with first time voters. IMHE the kids are smarter than that.
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Can anyone clarify for me, because a lot a lot of people this election had to do a special vote because they received the letter from the election commission to say they were enrolled, but then turned up today to find out they weren't on the printed roll, is there any way to tell if your vote has been discounted because the electoral commission thinks you weren't enrolled, yet your letter was sent and you thought everything was ok?
It just seems awfully strange this year, and there were a lot of people on both the Maori roll and the general roll in my area who turned up and found out they weren't on the roll and then turned up and they weren't. Much, much more than in other years.
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krothville, in reply to
adolescent Prime minister
Link please, I must have missed that, I need cheering up this evening.
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Best we can hope for right now is for the special votes to kibosh Key's outright majority.
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I'd really like to understand what happened to the Green vote. They seemed to be in a stronger position than 2011, with a better campaign and policy platform, and Labours weakness playing to their favour. And yet.
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Sam F, in reply to
It's here - a quote from Greenwald rather than the Grauniad's own description.
It's strange attempting to follow the election via the Herald app plus PAS, but the quiet on here tells its own story, I guess.
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So, the greens usually grab 1/2 a point on specials, and there's a bunch of them, so they'll get that last seat off National most likely, though it could come off Labour yet. NZF could grab a 2nd off National. They're still in though.
Hey, just got reminded. Colin Craig is not in parliament. That, my good folk, is really a gigantic relief, even though it's tragically unfair to those voters and he damn well should be in. This could have been very much worse though. -
and now paul henry is going on about loyalty...
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krothville, in reply to
Ah, bugger, I'd hoped it was the Graun's.
Also, guys, that special vote block is enormous this time around (~10%), and I think it will have a fair number of conservative votes in it, I think they only need around 10-15k more, easily doable out of 250k or so.So things could get worse.
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So, Nikki Kaye has Auckland Central by 647, Trevor Mallard has Hutt South by 378. What are the chances of specials overturning those?
I'm also surprised how slim Peter Dunne's margin is. Only 930. It was my impression he was a reasonably popular local MP, hence his longevity, but I guess it's not that simple. Had all those votes for Tane Woodley gone to Virginia Andersen....
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Trevor Nicholls, in reply to
It was my impression he was a reasonably popular local MP
He turns up to everything in the electorate. Handy that it's so close to Parliament so it isn't the burden it is for an MP out of Wellington. I don't think he actually does anything tangible or helpful except vote with John Key's National Government.
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krothville, in reply to
So, Nikki Kaye has Auckland Central by 647, Trevor Mallard has Hutt South by 378. What are the chances of specials overturning those?
I'm also surprised how slim Peter Dunne's margin is. Only 930. It was my impression he was a reasonably popular local MP, hence his longevity, but I guess it's not that simple. Had all those votes for Tane Woodley gone to Virginia Andersen....
Huge chance of change for both Dunne and Kaye, as both electorates are close to 30% specials.
Dunne's electorate weren't very happy with him about the drugs law, apparently, a lot of people said they would never vote for him again.
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One for the very unfortunate name (or spelling of the name, at least) file:
Electoral Commission spokeswoman Stasi Turnbull said a number of complaints had been lodged over breaches.
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WH,
While disappointing, the result was in the polling and I suppose it has been for many years.
It won't be easy for Labour to reclaim the support National has accumulated. My own view is that the parties to the left of Labour are complicating its effort to present the image it needs to attract broad-based, non-partisan support. Maybe it's a function of the rainbow coalition that makes up the modern progressive movement. I hope Labour can find the personnel and the vision to turn it all around. Its job won't be made easier by the dominant narratives that exist about the left.
I think it has to be conceded that Key is a remarkable figure in New Zealand's political history. Even his interview with John Campbell was really likeable, and I was supporting the other guy.
So, sad face. Back to the drawing board.
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Steve Barnes, in reply to
Disclaimer: I party voted IM, and I’m bloody old.
+1
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Sheep still dominate in NZ, despite our desperate focus on Dairy.
And the winner on the day was corruption and denigration and the scum rose to the top of the swamp. -
Sacha, in reply to
the parties to the left of Labour are complicating its effort to present the image it needs to attract broad-based, non-partisan support.
perhaps Labour needs to relinquish its claim to the whole of the left rather than whatever parts it actually deserves to keep?
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tussock, in reply to
So things could get worse.
Hone could win on specials too, but it's not likely.
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Joe Wylie, in reply to
Hone could win on specials too, but it’s not likely.
I think Bryce Edwards claimed earlier that he did well on specials last election.
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BenWilson, in reply to
I’d really like to understand what happened to the Green vote.
I'd guess they lost some votes to IM. I know they lost mine to it. Not really that bummed about any of this, though. It's not like I was expecting the Left to win. The best I was hoping was that Winston would get JK to blow him before giving him the keys again. Yes, it's a bummer for Labour. But I'm not going to move to the right just to make Labour feel better, and if they want to move to the right (as Jose Pagani and Matthew Hooten, presumably chosen to go against each other for "balance", agreed about all night long) then I will be even less likely to vote for them. Furthermore I think it would be bad for the country. They did the right thing, to provide genuine opposition, but unfortunately this country just isn't ready for that yet. Maybe they won't be ready for it again, ever, but that's never going to change me into thinking we should all just get with the program and turn right wing.
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Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to
When people get over the emotion of individuals competing against each other thus splitting that vote A Party vote is essential as a concentrated effort for one side to include all on the Left. Pick an individual for Electorate and make a plan with the biggest Party (labour) to bring everyone together.
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WH,
perhaps Labour needs to relinquish its claim to the whole of the left rather than whatever parts it actually deserves to keep?
On a night National claimed 48% support, I have to believe Labour can improve on 25%.
Key's leadership is aggregating the right's support, but total progressive support is currently below 40%. The space from the centre (NZ First) to the right has 60%.
I know we all very broadly want the same things.
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Labour either needs to
1: Get massive turnout, which they've had a go at a few times now and it's just not the same as with Auntie Helen. It wasn't the same as with Auntie Helen even when it was, really, 2005 wasn't exactly glorious, and that's a long time ago now anyway. The crowds from 99/02 are older.
2: Get a very small number of the people who voted National today, to vote Labour or Green in 3 years time instead. Or NZF. Which doesn't actually seem to be about hurting their turnout, because that didn't work either. They just need to steal away 2% or so, because that's a 4 point shift and that's a left wing government.
Though then National can just give the nod to Conservative in a seat somewhere next time and get a free 4% extra. And give Winston some prizes for another 10% on that. I don't know, maybe they should just promise irresponsible tax cuts for the rich. Despite most people not actually benefiting, most people fucking well vote for it don't they, even if it's for the next election and not this one. Surprisingly (eh?), no one really voted for more taxes to pay for the things they want government to do. Promise economic miracles instead, like the right do. Growth will pick up, you see. Fairy dust, people love it.
Chase that ignorant racist self-centred bigot middle voter like they do in Oz by torturing refugees on the evening news.
3: Figure out why the fuck so many people under 40 don't care either way. That could be the lack of them hearing any difference, you know. National is very quick at pouncing on popular Labour policies and claiming them as their own (in some cruelly watered-down version that gives more to the rich). People used to vote more than this.Again, congrats to the Nats. If only they'd apply their mastery of politic to getting the country behind building a decent future for the place.
Edit: Killing the Alliance. Trying to kill the Māori Party. Killing the Mana Movement. It's not helping. That's where some of that missing turnout is, seats that aren't there to vote against National. There's people like that genuine left wing thing, eh. The war in Afghanistan started the rot, all this shit eating sitting in opposition and getting your people bought off by Murray (present) because they never got Cabinet pay, that's not helping. The internal ideological shit-fights over direction, just apply some fucking science, do some polling, and find out what should work, eh.Stop listening to idiot trolls like me. For goodness sake, Labour.
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