Hard News by Russell Brown

Read Post

Hard News: Time to Vote

261 Responses

First ←Older Page 1 7 8 9 10 11 Newer→ Last

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to mark taslov,

    Stranger things have happened in an erection.

    I was living in Sydney at the time of the Witlam dismissal in 1975. Strange days. In a poll taken in the lead up to the following election people were asked who they felt deserved to win, as well as their voting intention. A clear majority endorsed the ousted Labor Party as deserving to be returned to power, but declared they’d be voting Liberal.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4592 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to Sofie Bribiesca,

    Ah, so you consider pity from polls. Ah, so you consider pity from polls. Brilliant. Polls that noone can understand at the best of times?

    No, Sofie, but if I was in Auckland Central I’d seriously consider splitting my vote in a similar way if it increased the odds of returning two women I have an enormous amount of respect for. For the record, I probably wouldn’t have because Adern is effectively top of Labour’s list at #5, as it’s highly unlikely Cunliffe, Parker, King and Grant Robertson would all lose their electorates. (We've also had the secret ballot since 1870, so I have no idea who most people voted for and why, and that's as it should be.) The return also strongly suggests a lot of Auckland Central voters might have split their votes between Ardern and the Greens -- which probably pissed off Labour HQ but helped secure Green candidate Denise Roche a second term.

    Like it or not (and you obviously don’t) vote splitting is perfectly legal and legitimate – even the ones that probably cost National Napier.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    It's not that ,I just don't understand the strategy. You Craig may have logic but the right in general and by instruction through ads and press release and many journos support are told otherwise , vote Seymour in Epsom, Dunne in Ohairau (sp ??), So it's clear instruction. "Crucial" became evident last week. Deflection has worked well for National nopolicies. They kept ramping up there view that a sideshow was interfering but still No policy. I had friends say "only interested in policy" I said "what's National got, supporter, I'm keen to know.?" They didn't know of any." It's all Labours fault." ER yeah mkay."There was sheeple everywhere ,too scared to read up. Insane in the membrane.

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • mark taslov, in reply to Sofie Bribiesca,

    The only plausible thing I can think of is given mum and dad Kiwis’ love of property investment, the CGT was either too big a pill to swallow or it wasn’t fully understood.

    Having a little income from a rental to help tide things over is (though not mentioned here) a part of the real New Zealand dream, which is great for the older generations who’ve been able to exploit others’ need for accommodation but for younger generations faced with daunting house prices, well, that’s one of the problems in New Zealand.

    Meaning it was National’s lack of policy that won them the election and actually having some kind of policy that lost it for Labour and the Greens.

    For me, one issue I grappled with this election were these promises to build new homes, when there are 1,651,542 unoccupied dwellings in New Zealand. Mightent it be better to actually settle the country.

    Te Ika-a-Māui • Since Mar 2008 • 2281 posts Report Reply

  • mark taslov, in reply to mark taslov,

    Sorry, posted the wrong number, what I meant was 185,448 unoccupied dwellings. Building 100,000 new houses or using that money to stimulate the provinces, I know what I’d do, it wouldn’t involve marzipan, but there might be the odd rollercoaster.

    Te Ika-a-Māui • Since Mar 2008 • 2281 posts Report Reply

  • Ian Dalziel, in reply to WH,

    a 1970s’ vintage left wing text

    sounds like Saul Alinsky’s ’Rules for Radicals’
    a community organisers handbook

    the job of the organizer is to maneuver and bait the establishment so that it will publicly attack him as a ‘dangerous enemy.’” According to Alinsky, “the hysterical instant reaction of the establishment [will] not only validate [the organizer’s] credentials of competency but also ensure automatic popular invitation."

    He threatened to organise a ‘Piss-in’ at O’Hare airport one time:

    According to Alinsky, once again the threat alone was sufficient to produce results. In 'Rules for Radicals', he notes that this tactic fell under two of his rules: Rule #3: Wherever possible, go outside the experience of the enemy; and Rule #4: Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon.

    Allegedly Drone-Lord Obama was an adherent to these methods in his earlier incarnation as a community organiser in Chicago, and his 2008 campaign was influenced by Alinsky’s teachings…
    source: wikipedia

    [edit] unfortunately I think Key & Joyce may have read it too...

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7939 posts Report Reply

  • Ian Dalziel,

    They walk among us...
    A new morning,
    bah humbug!
    It's perhaps the crappest Christmas yet,
    I didn't get any of the presents I wanted!

    Here we go then, another 1,094 days to look forward to
    where the only hope on the horizon, is the rising sun...

    I do hope they will be carefully checking all votes, for multiples, and other irregularities, etc when they reconcile the various booth roll books into one...

    How would they know if people's easy vote cards had been misused?
    after all, all they'd have to do is lie, no biggy on top of electoral fraud.

    The Press didn't help yesterday with a page 3 retraction of voting disinformation on Friday:

    No ID required
    In Friday's Press, in the A8 story 'Remember to make your vote count' it stated you need identification to vote today. You do not. Anastasia Turnbull of the Electoral Commission said: "You do not need identification to vote in New Zealand, and never have. Taking your Easyvote card makes it quicker and easier, but you can still vote without it. You'll just need to give the issuing officer your name and address so they can find you on the roll."

    I'm thinking some lackwit out there will decide to go to a couple of booths, just as long as they fit the demographic of whomsoever they are purporting to be...
    ...it's the only explanation I can think of for Central Chchch!

    The big fear I got from the few Joe-National voters I have met lately, was the looming Capital Gains Tax Fear - Baby Boomers worried about losing out on some of their return on their parents' house, in a nutshell - better open taxation than tax by stealth in other ways, in transactions like that everything is quantifiable, Key has got back in by gesturing hypnotically at some insubstantial looking mist in the distance, smiling to the camera "she''ll be right, trust me!"
    ...that and the Status Quo fan club!

    and just before I go and burn some toast, and worry about the crows gathering on the power lines, and other omens...
    - didn't y'all think David Cunliffe looked the most relaxed you have ever seen him on camera, virtually since taking office, when he conceded with his well crafted capitulation.
    He finally looked alive...

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7939 posts Report Reply

  • steven crawford, in reply to BenWilson,

    I’d guess they lost some votes to IM. I know they lost mine to it. Not really that bummed about any of this, though.

    I voted mana last election and this, which was the right thing to do. Now I am beginning realize that I'm going to lift my game and do a little bit more for people who can't do it for them selves. The election results don't have anywhere near the same impact on my well being as they do for people, that don't for what ever reason, are unable to see out of a hand to mouth existence.

    Alternative education could be it. I went to the Fab lab opening seminar a wee while back, where I learned about some American research that found people in lower socio economic positions, are less likely to see there intelligence as having potential.

    And there is something I know anecdotally. If we get ten fucked up alcoholics out of canons creek and into a Hazelden treatment centor, we will get at least one of them that will pay back the effort one hundred fold.

    Atlantis • Since Nov 2006 • 4411 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to steven crawford,

    And there is something I know anecdotally. If we get ten fucked up alcoholics out of canons creek and into a Hazelden treatment centor, we will get at least one of them that will pay back the effort one hundred fold.

    You appear to be describing the power of self-respect, which I still believe to be the true dividend of social justice. From other posts of yours I get the impression that you know that to be a hard-won thing, though all the more effective for being so. What we’ve seen last night is the triumph of its toxic substitute, namely snobbery, which provides a quick fix at someone else’s expense.

    Claims of widespread revulsion for Cameron Slater among National supporters conveniently ignore that the same people usually hold an equal level of fear & loathing for Nicky Hager, whose work they’ll never sully themselves with by actually reading.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4592 posts Report Reply

  • DexterX,

    I feel it was the capital gains tax - "The Majority" don't want it and the opposition Lab/Green are married to it - I don't think KDC is the reason for Labour's or the left's woes.

    Key is as bent and viscous as they come - the word "Dirty" fits - "The Majority" will no doubt be uncomfortable with the result.

    The left message seemed to be "Equality through Taxation" and the Nat message was "That won't work" - which the Majority considered to be true.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1224 posts Report Reply

  • Bart Janssen, in reply to mark taslov,

    the CGT was either too big a pill to swallow or it wasn’t fully understood.

    I don't think it's that simple. Yeah there will be a small number of people who actually would have lost significant wealth to the CGT but far far fewer than the number of voters who turned away from Labour this year again. The farmers may well have uniformly opposed the CGT for purely financial reasons but again it's a lower number than explains the massive failure in the Labour vote.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 4458 posts Report Reply

  • Bart Janssen, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    couldn’t carry the party vote in their own patches

    This!

    Seriously the Labour party need to get out on the streets and go door knocking right now and ASK and LISTEN. They need to know what message people were giving when they voted for Goff but against Labour.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 4458 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood,

    Looking at the figures compared to last time. National more or less held their support from last time. Greens more or less held there support from last time. Collapse in support for Labour a bit of which went to NZ First. I think, from the outside of Labour, are not what National did to not lose it's support but what Labour can do to bring back the people staying home who used to vote Labour.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report Reply

  • Ian Dalziel, in reply to Joe Wylie,

    Esteempunks…

    You appear to be describing the power of self-respect, which I still believe to be the true dividend of social justice.

    +1
    Imagine a whole country powered by such a thing…
    (and we are talking self-respect
    and not just self-involvement)

    What we’ve seen last night is the triumph of its toxic substitute, namely snobbery, which provides a quick fix at someone else’s expense.

    Which is why I still can’t bring myself to go and look at anything in hard copy that shows Judith Collins may have been voted back in by her happy electorate…
    No, no don’t tell me! LALALA
    - I can’t hear you…

    The humility of Kim Dotcom, his personal epiphany on social responsibility, came at quite a cost to the country…
    What price to put on that 'bucket list' streak?

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7939 posts Report Reply

  • Bart Janssen, in reply to Sofie Bribiesca,

    Tell me how or why does someone vote person Labour and Party National?

    The people who need to be asked are those that live in Roskill and New Lynn.

    But Labour need to both ask and listen. The answer may not be pleasant but it is important if Labour want to be anything other than just another minor party.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 4458 posts Report Reply

  • Bart Janssen,

    Do we have the demographics on the voter turnout?

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 4458 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to Bart Janssen,

    The people who need to be asked are those that live in Roskill and New Lynn.

    It’s a pattern that seems to have been repeated in Wigram and Christchurch East.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4592 posts Report Reply

  • Ian Dalziel, in reply to Bart Janssen,

    …the demographics on the voter turnout?

    I heard someone on the telly, talking about how the Elderly and Asian vote broke down, and I was wondering how they could know things like that without back referencing individual votes’ voter detail…

    I can see how they’d be able to generate turnout by collating who has ‘elected’ to vote from their database – before said vote is cast – but to then say which way each sub group jumped seems to be skimming that meta-data awfully close to the reefs of privacy…
    Though when reconciling each cancelled vote against each voter’s cancelled roll name that data could be harvested relatively anonymously…
    (of course this may be all old school methods,
    there’s bound to be a whizzy program…)

    or was that info from exit polls?

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7939 posts Report Reply

  • steven crawford,

    Tell me how or why does someone vote person Labour and Party National?

    Mabe, it’s people anxious about change, but want ethical people in parliament to keep an eye on the corruption that’s been documented in Dirty politics. I would say these people are to chicken shit, to get off the couch and change the channel.

    Atlantis • Since Nov 2006 • 4411 posts Report Reply

  • Bart Janssen, in reply to Ian Dalziel,

    I can see how they’d be able to generate that by collating who has ‘elected’ to vote from their database

    No you can get there fairly well by correlating regional differences in demographics with the voting in each electorate. All public data and no need to go near the privacy issues.

    I was mostly interested in % turnout for each group as well as overall turnout.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 4458 posts Report Reply

  • Stephen R,

    From time to time I forget that I despair of my species, and then I am reminded.

    Now I'm cruising the web playing happy music and dancing around the house (with the curtains pulled so I don't scare the neighbours) to try to use exercise as a way of feeling better.

    Wellington • Since Jul 2009 • 259 posts Report Reply

  • steven crawford,

    No you can get there fairly well by correlating regional differences in demographics with the voting in each electorate. All public data and no need to go near the privacy issues.

    Metadata.

    Atlantis • Since Nov 2006 • 4411 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson,

    What was the turnout, btw? I didn't hear any stars on it last night at all.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10650 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson,

    I had the misfortune to be with my folks who stubbornly and masochistically insisted on watching the TV3 coverage. Their glee that Mana was gone was cut short by my explanation about who would pick up the redistribution. To my surprise it seemed like it was the first time they had ever understood how MMP works.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10650 posts Report Reply

  • izogi, in reply to Chris Waugh,

    I’m also surprised how slim Peter Dunne’s margin is. Only 930. It was my impression he was a reasonably popular local MP

    My impression of Ohariu (currently renting here) is that although it’s very in favour of National, it’s also very polarised for and against Dunne.

    It shows when a guy who did everything but clearly instruct everyone to vote for Peter Dunne, and was virtually guaranteed a place via National’s list, still managed to pick up 5000 votes against Dunne’s 12000. If National hadn’t given people a candidate to neutralise all their supporters who despise him, they very possibly would have gone to Virginia Anderson. Chauvel nearly knocked Dunne over in the previous two elections for the same reason.

    I might be mis-reading it, though. Maybe it’s just a case of many National supporters (well, voters in general) not getting the strategic voting thing or not wanting to do it, or not paying attention to anything beyond the logo next to their tick on the ballot paper.

    Wellington • Since Jan 2007 • 1139 posts Report Reply

First ←Older Page 1 7 8 9 10 11 Newer→ Last

Post your response…

Please sign in using your Public Address credentials…

Login

You may also create an account or retrieve your password.