Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: 2015: The Budget of what?

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  • Russell Brown,

    Hi guys – I’m busy with the day job today – and this year Keith’s doing his data thing for NBR, who will pay him with actual money. So consider this an open thread and make of it what you will.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22834 posts Report Reply

  • George Darroch,

    Is this a ‘climate change budget’, or a ‘child poverty budget’? My early guess is that it isn’t, but that there will be small ($1-10m) token initiatives in either.

    The other big question for me: will the NZDF get $400m+ to buy new jetplanes? (C-17 or A400 heavy freight vehicles).

    WLG • Since Nov 2006 • 2264 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody,

    I heard a prediction the spies are gonna get a budget increase given we all know that terrorism is a greater threat to social cohesion than hunger.

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Katharine Moody,

    Hungry spies are a dangerous thing. Feed em, I say.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19719 posts Report Reply

  • Alan Perrott,

    I can't disclose my source, but we're all getting ponies.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 438 posts Report Reply

  • Jeremy Andrew, in reply to Sacha,

    Hungry spies are a dangerous thing. Feed em, I say.

    Meat pies and Penthouses all round!

    Hamiltron - City of the F… • Since Nov 2006 • 900 posts Report Reply

  • Jeremy Andrew, in reply to Alan Perrott,

    I can’t disclose my source, but we’re all getting ponies.

    Small typo there - I think you meant 'pennies'

    Hamiltron - City of the F… • Since Nov 2006 • 900 posts Report Reply

  • Brent Jackson,

    I heard it was ponytails ...

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 615 posts Report Reply

  • Steve Curtis, in reply to George Darroch,

    The other big question for me: will the NZDF get $400m+ to buy new jetplanes? (C-17 or A400 heavy freight vehicles).

    Question answered. YES. But details not announced but cloaked as being for for defence commitments and humanitarian aid. Need more money later as this is probably only a first up payment.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 314 posts Report Reply

  • Bart Janssen, in reply to Brent Jackson,

    I heard it was ponytails ...

    Dammit where is the like button?

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 4458 posts Report Reply

  • william blake,

    Since Mar 2010 • 380 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    Public Broadcasting Services funding cut for the seventh straight year. Down 1.3% to $129.5m. This after the NZ On Air board warned that it could not maintain services on this basis.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22834 posts Report Reply

  • Rosemary McDonald,

    So, from Vote Health....http://www.budget.govt.nz/budget/pdfs/estimates/v6/est15-v6-health.pdf

    "Current and Past Policy Initiatives'

    Family Caregivers 2014/15 $23 million, same yearly amount projected through to 2019....YET...the uptake of this dog of a scheme has been less than 10%.

    SO...where the hell is the unspent millions????

    Waikato, or on the road • Since Apr 2014 • 1344 posts Report Reply

  • Stewart, in reply to Russell Brown,

    the NZ On Air board warned that it could not maintain services

    Isn't this a bit like putting a 'Kick Me' sign on one's own arse?

    Te Ika A Maui - Whakatane… • Since Oct 2008 • 577 posts Report Reply

  • Kumara Republic, in reply to william blake,

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11452450

    Ponies and balloons.

    Those video livestreams don't have any playback controls at all. And I'm running the latest Flash too.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5430 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz, in reply to George Darroch,

    And you'll notice a large number of articles in the NZ Herald of limited interest to a general audience (one would have thought) and with a definite slant in favour of buying the expensive US product. Not that the paper might have been induced at some level to take this line, of course.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • izogi,

    I can't be bothered reading details. Does anyone have pointers to any nice, colourful visualisations?

    Wellington • Since Jan 2007 • 1139 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to izogi,

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19719 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha,

    Haven't seen any pundits discuss this wrinkle yet: compulsory part-time hours worked by beneficiaries goes up by 5 hours. Because of savage abatement rates on every dollar earned, I wonder how much of the headline $25 benefit increase will remain? Someone in MSD/Treasury must have modelled it.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19719 posts Report Reply

  • Rosemary McDonald, in reply to Sacha,

    But! But!

    This guy reckons....http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/opinion/68755709/a-budget-for-the-battler-family-on-struggle-street

    that...

    "National's $790 million family hardship package is unquestionably the poster-child of Budget 2015, a far-reaching financial top-up that few pundits foresaw."

    So there!

    Waikato, or on the road • Since Apr 2014 • 1344 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody, in reply to Sacha,

    Here’s some of the type of analysis you’re looking for:

    As usual, however, the devil was tucked away in the detail. Although many low income families will benefit from the increases to Working for families tax credits (“WFTC”) from 1 April 2016 the sting in the tail is an 5.9% increase in abatement rates from 21.25 cents to 22.5 cents in the dollar.

    From 1 April 2016 WFTC will reduce by 22.5 cents for each dollar earned over $36,500 of gross income (a term which has itself been widely expanded in recent years). What this means is for families receiving WFTC their effective marginal tax rate (“EMTR”) will increase by a combination of tax and abatements.

    For a small group of about 4,000 families on low income their EMTR is 100% that is every extra dollar they earn will be lost in tax and abatements of WFTC and other benefits such as accommodation supplement. Until the interaction between the tax and social spending systems are overhauled this intractable problem will remain.

    http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/75612/terry-baucher-finds-few-surprises-budget-2015-around-working-families-tax-credits

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • Rob Stowell,

    $25 a week is not likely raise many families out of poverty. I’m torn between saying it’s a token bone thrown – and admitting that for some it will surely make a positive difference.
    What it really is is a kick in the teeth to Labour. They haven’t been a party friendly to or favouring beneficiaries since the 70s. National just threw that into stark relief.

    Whakaraupo • Since Nov 2006 • 2109 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Katharine Moody,

    Yes, saw on Twitter. Add what I'm talking about to that. And now someone's saying that the obligations may kick in earlier than the extra $25 does. Will check it out.

    Here's Blinglish being challenged by Mary Wilson on RNZ Checkpoint.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19719 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Rob Stowell,

    What it really is is a kick in the teeth to Labour.

    Yes, nine long years. And won't their reaction tomorrow be interesting ..

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19719 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to Rob Stowell,

    What it really is is a kick in the teeth to Labour. They haven’t been a party friendly to or favouring beneficiaries since the 70s.

    They still made friendly noises as recently as the 80s. Back then, the DSW sent out facsimile missives to its clients signed by Ann Hercus, addressing the recipient as Dear Beneficiary. Of course there was a bit of opposition carping that it was a kind of thinly-veiled off-season electioneering.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4593 posts Report Reply

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