Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: Art with a job to do

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  • Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to izogi,

    combinations of each vote is not a massive undertaking for any random person to process in this day and age.

    I noticed an article in Herald (I think, but can't locate now) that stated National Electorates voted overwhelmingly for John Keys favourite, and no mention of any other Electorates but then again, how can one really tell according to this Stuff article..
    Fern first, whatever colour

    "I like the particular blue that's on the blue and black, but it's just personal choice, I mean the red and blue one, as, the blue and black one as opposed to the red and blue one. I like the blue on the red...on the black and blue - Jesus, get it right."

    he said.

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • william blake,

    Is this flag going to stand for tangata whenua and manuhiri and the principles of partnership written into the treaty of Waitangi, or will citizens be voting along party lines? A vote for the ponga flag is a vote for John Key.

    Will the flag be republicanism by stealth with Key as the first president? And will the ‘get in behind’ attitude of Matthew Hooten be amplified in this brave new world?

    Since Mar 2010 • 378 posts Report Reply

  • izogi, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    I wouldn't know about legality of the EC to analyse, but if the information were collected as part of the process, and not disposed of, then I'd have thought it should be queryable under the OIA. Obviously it'd still be subject to the criteria for determining release vs refusal.

    It's a fairly minor concern for me, anyway. I was just curious if it's possible to look at some of the other voting patterns that didn't directly impact the final result.

    Wellington • Since Jan 2007 • 1139 posts Report Reply

  • Jason Kemp, in reply to Steve Todd,

    Thanks Steve - the PV system is indeed more complex than it seems.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 363 posts Report Reply

  • izogi, in reply to Sofie Bribiesca,

    From the count it did seem the black-flag vote seemed to be initially split, eventually converging on the Lockwood-with-black preference over the Lockwood-with-red preference. Especially when the Black and White Silver Fern was eliminated, those went overwhelmingly to the eventual winning option which seems to be what nudged it in front.

    But yeah. From the provided info there’s no way to tell where all of the Red/White/Blue votes would have gone if it were eliminated earlier, or the Black/White/Blue votes for that matter. For all we know, every one of the Lockwood Red/White/Blue voters might theoretically all have next-preferred Red Peak (ooooh lotsa Red!) over the other Lockwood design (oooh giant Fern), even though those votes were never going to transfer over under the counting system, with RP already having been eliminated. It seems unlikely, though. :)

    Wellington • Since Jan 2007 • 1139 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to izogi,

    But if one would vote say hypno, black white fern then red peak, once they start getting eliminated your vote ends up lockwood no matter what if you number all choices

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • linger, in reply to Sofie Bribiesca,

    Indeed. Thus I ended up voting “for” the eventual winner, even though I ranked it 4th.

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1886 posts Report Reply

  • izogi, in reply to Sofie Bribiesca,

    Yes, it does. (Everybody wins because eventually they all voted for the winner!)

    I was really just considering the theoretical possibility that people who voted for Lockwood/Red might all utterly hate Lockwood/Black, for some reason. Which is contrary to what I thought Matthew Hooton was stating. Assuming why people vote as they do without actually knowing is a risky thing, and just because people like one fern rendition doesn't mean they like any others.

    The counting system means that if the next-preference alternatives can't survive long enough on their early preferences, then those alternatives are wiped out before the massive number of Lockwood/Red voters' votes can transfer to them. So Lockwood/Black might have won by combining second-third-forth preferences of the alternatives, but theoretically another of the alternatives might have overtaken it if second prefs of Lockwood/Red had been attributed to its first prefs.

    But that's the counting system we've decided on. None's going to be perfect, and it's still much better than FPP.

    Wellington • Since Jan 2007 • 1139 posts Report Reply

  • Hilary Stace, in reply to Sofie Bribiesca,

    Best to only number the ones you really like. I urged people not to number the Lockwoods at all so there would be no preferences to transfer. In Wellington we are getting more used to STV as it has been used in local body elections for several years now, and for wards with only a few candidates. Mostly I only number one or two candidates - those I really want to win - and leave the rest unnumbered.

    Wgtn • Since Jun 2008 • 3194 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz,

    This sez that if you have a single candidate you dislike above all others, leaving them unranked or ranking them last is equivalent.

    I’ll leave whether this extends to multiple disliked candidates as an exercise for the reader.

    (Of course, one might feel better by not ranking X, but it won’t stop them winning any more effectively).

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • izogi, in reply to Hilary Stace,

    Best to only number the ones you really like. I urged people not to number the Lockwoods at all so there would be no preferences to transfer.

    If you don't rank them then their final count won't go so high, because your vote's never transferred, but your vote can only have an impact if all of your prior options have been eliminated and so you're just gifting the final choice between what remains to other people. I think the only benefit of not ranking is if you want to avoid aiding an impression that more people actually really really liked a particular option, but those impressions come from a misunderstanding of how the system works more than anything else.

    My own view is that I might as well rank all options according to the order I'd actually prefer them, unless I genuinely don't have a preference between them.

    Wellington • Since Jan 2007 • 1139 posts Report Reply

  • Michael Homer, in reply to Hilary Stace,

    Mostly I only number one or two candidates - those I really want to win - and leave the rest unnumbered.

    This is silly unless all of those other candidates are genuinely indistinguishable to you.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 82 posts Report Reply

  • Ross Francis, in reply to Matthew Hooton,

    For the fern to lose, turnout will have to exceed that of the 2014 election, and pretty much all the non-voters in the first referendum will need to back the Union Jack.

    I don't think that is true at all. I expect many of the non-voters, the informals and quite a few of the fern voters to vote for the current flag.

    Wairarapa • Since Apr 2012 • 26 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to Ross Francis,

    I expect many of the non-voters, the informals and quite a few of the fern voters to vote for the current flag.

    There was a grey-haired guy soliciting toots from passing traffic by waving the current flag outside the Hornby Mall about an hour ago. He seemed to be getting an enthusiastic response.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4591 posts Report Reply

  • George Darroch, in reply to finetoothcolumn,

    To me, the sheer margin of defeat – regardless of abstentions – indicates to me that in the end Red Peak didn’t appeal either to the public at large or as an alternative to those who didn’t like the Lockwoods.

    Or, as I said several pages upthread, very few New Zealanders actually got to see it (or any other) as a flag. They were denied that chance by a hasty* and underfunded** process.

    I'm waiting for someone to dispute or endorse my contention. I don't claim that if 4.6 million New Zealanders had seen it swinging in the breeze it would have captured their hearts, but that it would have gathered slightly more than 130,000 of them.

    *,** I made these points well before votes were mailed, as it was obvious that the process would punish newcomers and reward the status quo.

    WLG • Since Nov 2006 • 2264 posts Report Reply

  • George Darroch, in reply to Ross Francis,

    I expect many of the non-voters, the informals and quite a few of the fern voters to vote for the current flag.

    And a plurality of Red Peak voters.

    WLG • Since Nov 2006 • 2264 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to BenWilson,

    Didn't open my ballot paper. Don't care what happens. Don't care to think about it, let alone debate it, let alone get angry about it. It's Kardashian news to me.

    Ditto.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2929 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Hilary Stace,

    I understand that you also need to number the ones you dislike, under that voting mechanism.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19667 posts Report Reply

  • Swan, in reply to Matthew Hooton,

    Just by the way, New Zealand has grassy-green or snowy-white mountains. Australia has red peaks.

    Ever heard of scoria Matthew? Ever done the Tongariro Crossing? You know NZs most popular and world famous Alpine walk?

    Birkenhead • Since Feb 2011 • 86 posts Report Reply

  • Hilary Stace, in reply to Sacha,

    No - as many (up to a certain number) or as few as you want.

    Wgtn • Since Jun 2008 • 3194 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to izogi,

    Which is contrary to what I thought Matthew Hooton was stating. Assuming why people vote as they do without actually knowing is a risky thing, and just because people like one fern rendition doesn’t mean they like any others.

    Well he is and he can fart over here all he likes but none of us need to put up with bullshit as Russell so eloquently put. No matter this outcome of trivia in my mind, we guys have got the moral high ground and I salute us all for conviction with our behaviour, eh

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to izogi,

    But that’s the counting system we’ve decided on. None’s going to be perfect, and it’s still much better than FPP

    When did this happen ? I dont remember this . Did I miss it?

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • linger, in reply to Sofie Bribiesca,

    True dat -- "we" had about as much input into the selection of the voting mechanism as into the selection of the final official four designs.

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1886 posts Report Reply

  • izogi, in reply to Sofie Bribiesca,

    When did this happen ? I dont remember this . Did I miss it?

    Okay, point taken. “We” didn’t make the decision except to elect representatives to do it on our behalf. As @Rich of Observationz also said to me earlier, the best time to take part in the process in determining the voting and counting process was probably when the New Zealand Flag Referendums Bill was churning its way through Parliament, public submissions and Select Committee hearings. The random sample of the 272 submissions I’ve glanced at just now seem to be almost entirely saying a combination of “leave the flag as it is” and artistic variations of “John Key is a moron”, without any reference to the counting process at all.

    Wellington • Since Jan 2007 • 1139 posts Report Reply

  • tussock,

    Obviously we should run a count that finds the Condorcet winner if there is one, but STV will find the Condorcet winner in almost all real single-winner elections anyway.

    The flag probably isn't an exception to that, there's no divisive argument with a compromise to be found. A lot of people voted for the colours it seemed (which makes sense when two of the options only differed by colour), but the red peak still isn't likely the equivalent of a compromise candidate because people who liked black or liked red still voted mostly for the rugby one first.

    Like, you put the Rugby emblem on the NZ flag, you're there. Most people want to vote for the winner and so there it is, y'all knew it was going to win too. Curia told Johnkey and he told the rest of us, not exactly a secret.

    PS: Our current flag on the internet is a blue smudge with a red box in the corner, and the winning alternative is a blue smudge with a faint white smear on it. I don't think anyone realises how small flags are now. Those little red stars aren't even multi-pixel, let alone the fern fronds.

    Since Nov 2006 • 607 posts Report Reply

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