Hard News: Decision 2014: Where to watch and listen
37 Responses
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The advance votes look very strongly Blue. Can we assume that early voters tend to skew elderly or more financially secure and are therefore unrepresentative of the electorate as a whole? Because if they are representative, this is looking a bit bleak for the Left.
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Don't toss in the towel yet. Most of the margins are wafer thin.
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National are actually about 1.5% behind in the advanced vote compared to last election. It is being talked up on the TV though.
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Early counts are from smaller boxes. The last few boxes counted are from the biggest polling turnouts, which are in the big cities, particularly Auckland. Country towns can skew a long way National, city centres get about 30% Green, 30% Labour, 30% Nat.
Edit: So 28% counted is 28% of polling places. All the small ones first, just a few hundred votes. The big ones get thousands each. Small places are broadly rural, wealthy, isolated, they vote right quite a bit. Fear, innit. -
Paul Henry, who's been rabbiting on about buying influence all night. As if that isn't what his favourite parties have been doing for years. They screamed treason when the free conversion of money into political influence was briefly regulated, and they changed the law to promote it as soon as they could.
Hypocrites.
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nzlemming, in reply to
Hypocrites.
Well, yes. Were you expecting more from them?
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more of the same, yes.
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The attacks on Dotcom are rather hilarious when you consider the sort of person who hides behind the infamous National not-so-secret trusts.
Again, congrats to the Nats. Hope they lose a couple on specials yet, but either way it's three more years of nothing like as good as it could be. I'm really going to have to get my bike fixed, because a gigantic bike ride would have felt pretty good tomorrow.
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I am 100 percent convinced now, that media bias, that is by core persons in the mainstream media, is facilitating the kinds of election results we are getting, and have been getting since at least 2008.
This is not a coincidence, it is a repeat occasion and business, most media are corporate and privately owned and run, and they live off advertising. They tend to follow the "business line", that is in line with what the right and National promote.
Even "public media" have been forced to earn from advertising, such as TVNZ and Maori TV, so no wonder then, that they are "mindful" of the advertisers and their interests, which are more in line with the National Party.
I think we need not just a rethink of what media policy we have in NZ, we need to reclaim media, that is the users of it, to at least have a strong, balanced, neutral and informing public broadcasting sector, as all else we get is crap.
We get so much nonsense already, people are inundated with commercial advertising, with dumbing down programs, with shallow and stupid shows and bits, we have a very poorly informed voter base, hence the results we get.
Of course the new government will have nothing of what I just wrote, as they and their mates are in control, and want us to be dumbed down further.
For heaven's sake, I wish the progressive minds and forces in this country finally wake up and take decisive steps to challenge the horrible status quo, as otherwise you may as well arrange your own funeral now.
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Joe Wylie, in reply to
The attacks on Dotcom are rather hilarious when you consider the sort of person who hides behind the infamous National not-so-secret trusts.
Dotcom of all people would be aware of that. After all, It's not so long ago that he was endorsing that paragon of virtue John Banks. From his apparently noble exit I'd like to think that he's above scraping some semblance of a martyr status from the Internet Party wreckage.
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Marc C, in reply to
TV commentators these days have as much credit as a Mr Goebbels a few decades ago!
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Marc C, in reply to
I am afraid that early voting is now pretty across the board, as many consider it to be convenient to do so. Hence I did the same, two or three days before the official election date. The votes cast as such are probably more in line with what the general vote will be, more so than years ago.
The main worry is the mainstream media, and I commented on that already. It is clear to me, that there is substantial bias, and it has shown for months if not years, to some key persons in the MSM have been very favourable of Key and the Nats, and have at the same time been using every opportunity to rubbish, question and discredit Labour, Greens and definitely David Cunliffe. It was a huge mistake by the left and progressives, to not take this serious enough, and even try to "play" the media game, by appearing on certain shows, with attempting to "please" the media commentators and the public.
This has NOT worked, the MSM deserves to be robustly criticised, even attacked, discredited and sidelined. It is time that Greens, Labour and others develop new media strategies, and run campaigns that do not rely on the "corrupt" media.
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Kumara Republic, in reply to
Dotcom of all people would be aware of that. After all, It's not so long ago that he was endorsing that paragon of virtue John Banks. From his apparently noble exit I'd like to think that he's above scraping some semblance of a martyr status from the Internet Party wreckage.
Got to hand it to Dotcom for admitting screwing up.
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Craig Ranapia, in reply to
This has NOT worked, the MSM deserves to be robustly criticised, even attacked, discredited and sidelined. It is time that Greens, Labour and others develop new media strategies, and run campaigns that do not rely on the “corrupt” media.
I'm sure the "blame the media" meme is going to be very tempting for large sections of the left, just as it was for too many bloody Tories after we got our arses slapped with a "RETURN TO SENDER" sticker in 2002 and deservedly so.
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So the Key Nats not only have a mandate to do whatever they want but the have a mandate to carry on with dirty politics. I’m really ashamed of us tonight.
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Caleb D'Anvers, in reply to
Your comparison doesn't stand up, Craig.
We now know from documentary evidence that media attack lines on the Left are directed and coordinated by the Nats and their funders. Those documents reveal only a tiny part of the story, from one narrow time slice, and presumably this has been going on for much longer. This is in no way comparable to the 2002 result for National, for which no corresponding evidence of media collusion exists.
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Steve Barnes, in reply to
Did anyone else notice Don brash dressed in drag at the Conservative party function?
No.That was ACT Headquarters and it was just a shirt without a tie, very Brotherly of him though but.
This lot will be gone by lunchtime, I may have to skip lunch for a few months but it will be worth it when the inquirers finish their task and hold the man's feet to the last glowing embers of justice. -
Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to
After all, It's not so long ago that he was endorsing that paragon of virtue John Banks.
What I remember was Banks told him how difficult it was to get funds for support and Com thought as a friend he would back his mate. They had got to know each other along with hundreds of others at Hendersons penthouse on the Hilton. DC had just offered a fire worx display for NYE which incidently we all had a good time at. Now, had Banks said "I'm a shifty bugger but I have a cuppa tea planned in the future that is part of our master plan..... who knows? KDC may have thought "oi oi oi, leave it out ....." Of course the shit hit the fan when John Banks was johnny no mates to Kim when in Epsom, he needed his bro.Yeah, paybacks are your bitch, scorned an'all.
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Joe Wylie, in reply to
Did anyone else notice Don brash dressed in drag at the Conservative party function?
No.That was ACT Headquarters and it was just a shirt without a tie, very Brotherly of him.
One of those early 90s Australian shows, possibly The Comedy Company, did a parody of the Alf show, about the annoying alien, where he revealed to his host family that all along he'd been nothing but a sock, onto which they'd projected their fantasies. Initially they refused to believe him, but once he insisted they turned nasty, even stomping on him for having deluded them. I guess that's why Brash - or the hollow tieless shirt that he turned out to be - doesn't socialise much these days.
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Steve Barnes, in reply to
I'm sure the "blame the media" meme is going to be very tempting for large sections of the left, just as it was for too many bloody Tories after we got our arses slapped with a "RETURN TO SENDER" sticker in 2002 and deservedly so.
The difference is that your lot did deserve it, as they do now. The difference is that the left don't do the dirt like the professionals, they don't do sneaky. They fucked up one thing this election that wouldn't have made a blind bit of difference anyway. They failed to play sneaky enough, it would have been easy to engineer a win for Hone, they could have done enough to get Internet Mana to 5% but they played it the old fashioned way, a fight to the death. They could have made up with the Greens, well, if it weren't for BRussell Norman making whoopie with Bill English, how fucked up was that? But anyway, the Greens and Labour were so pilloried as to make any kind of rational decision to vote for them the province of hard line supporters, not the gullible.
And don't bother looking that last word up, its not in the New Zealand Dictionary. -
Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to
Got to hand it to Dotcom for admitting screwing up.
And why not? People should be able to admit if they think they got it wrong. I have seen nothing but a man who as he discovers the truth, shares it. He has done nothing to any of us except a couple of disgruntled employees. He has tried to help on numerous occasions , seems to be exactly who he says he is . John key isn't. Collins isn't Slater isn't Williamson is looking dodgy Smith has interfered with process. Ede / Keys orifice is dodgy on behalf of the PM. Key can't remember anything . No confidence in the man or his groupies.
KDC is on his own being framed as some sort of scapegoat . Hollywood has won because now after today Key will change whatever law is needed to extradite him. Our democracy has just gone up de Nile. A piece of NZ has died today. RIP -
Steve Barnes, in reply to
I guess that's why Brash - or the hollow tieless shirt that he turned out to be - doesn't socialise much these days.
Oh come on, be fair. He was there at the ACT thing with whatshisname and that bloke. Great socialiser. The kind of guy my Mother would have ignored. She would have described him as the sort of chap that would have "Chewed bread for our ducks"...She would have. Funny woman my Mum.
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Craig Ranapia, in reply to
The difference is that the left don’t do the dirt like the professionals, they don’t do sneaky.
No, professionals wouldn't have done such a bang up job of derailing their whole campaign into a tabloid freakshow. I know this might be beyond belief, but I didn't talk to an awful lot of people who cared less about Cameron Slater and "the left" did a ratshit job of convincing them why they should. But it dominated the campaign, and I actually feel a lot of sympathy for Cunliffe's increasingly visible frustration at the noise exceeding the signal (and I think he performed pretty well when given the opportunity) but it's a little rich to blame the media for the blowback, and condescending to a million-or-so voters isn't really going to cut it either.
You're right about one thing though -- National did deserve a pounding in 2002, because it was failing utterly to talk about things people actually cared about in a manner they found convincing. As The Smiths put it, they just didn't earn it yet baby...
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Ian Dalziel, in reply to
Cockneyed rebel...
...the Alf show, about the annoying alien, where he revealed to his host family that all along he’d been nothing but a sock, onto which they’d projected their fantasies. Initially they refused to believe him, but once he insisted they turned nasty, even stomping on him for having deluded them.
We don't do things
by 'alfs round here
mate...100% all the way
the Ultra-V, that's us
straight up! -
Bart Janssen, in reply to
I’m sure the “blame the media” meme is going to be very tempting for large sections of the left
Agreed. There is an element of frustration in that. But like it or not the media reflected the actual voters. As amazed as some of us were that the media did not attack JK for his deceptions, they essentially replicated what the voters on the night thought as well.
This Labour party failed. It will take some time to understand entirely why but arguing anything other than they failed is pointless and a waste of energy.
For me there are a couple of key issues they disappointed me with:
The relationship with The Greens was toxic to Labour, too many people I spoke with were simply afraid to vote Labour. Rightly or wrongly they perceived The Greens as dangerous to NZs economy. Somehow Labour has to sort out an environmental policy that stands alone independent of The Greens so that those voters can feel they can vote for the environment by voting Labour without the negative perceptions around The Greens.
The parliamentary team in Labour is hopeless and that needs to change. Too often there were different and irrelevant messages coming from MPs. Too often the spokesperson had no ready answer. They were bad and it showed. Too often it was Julie Anne Genter's transport policy that made sense and too often Russel Norman said it better than any Labour MP. It left a confusion in many people as to what Labour was doing in parliament, what issues were they fighting for, what mattered?
They need to get out and understand what people in my electorate (Roskill) were actually trying to say when they voted for Goff but against Labour. There is a message there that Cunliffe and the party leadership is not hearing.
They failed utterly to attack the policies of National, where were the messages reminding people that this National government sold our assets, and asking what will be sold next, ACC, Pharmac? Whoever came up with the mild and meek "vote positive" failed and they need to be sent to the back of the class.
And yeah a lot of the above is all about perception, you can argue blind that I'm actually wrong about those issues but the problem is people perceived something to be wrong about Labour. Ignore that perception again and Labour become just another minor party again - like it is for the next three years.
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