Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: It's worse than you think

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  • David Hood, in reply to nzlemming,

    Those polls are taken of ~1000 people who use landlines (as they are only conducted on landlines). They generally have a margin of error of 3%-ish.

    New Zealand polls within a few days of each other often show a difference of support for National outside the combined margin of errors for both polls. So I would never read to much into individual polls. I tend to think of it as a long term trend, then mentally adjust the result by how much the polls were overestimating National support at the last election.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report Reply

  • Phil,

    It's all coming out now. People have forgotten the incident where the disturbed person tried to climb/fall into the debating chamber. This was leading up to the last general election. Telling footage of John Keys appalling response was censored from the parliamentary video tape within 30 minutes. Never to be seen again. I estimate 2 seconds was censored. I wonder who did that PM?

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 2 posts Report Reply

  • Hilary Cameron,

    So... Key just apparently used the teapot tapes in HIS defence. My god.

    http://www.3news.co.nz/Vance-already-has-apology---Key/tabid/423/articleID/307761/Default.aspx

    If the seized texts really do show that the recording was inadvertent, then, you know..Pants on fire...

    Christchurch • Since May 2013 • 15 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to Hilary Cameron,

    So… Key just apparently used the teapot tapes in HIS defence. My god.

    I know, right?

    But this is clearly the line they’ve settled on. It’s the one Steven Joyce was hammering on The Nation:

    Transcript here, if you’re a glutton for punishment.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22761 posts Report Reply

  • Matthew Poole, in reply to Pete Sime,

    GCSB is certainly gaining as a search term on Google, and is slightly ahead of the April peak for the search term “Marriage equality”, but is quite far behind the search term “Gay marriage”. It doesn’t appear to be the political story of the year, but interest is growing.

    Only in Wellington and, to a lesser extent, Auckland, however. The "search volume index" is 100 for Wellington, and somewhere around 55-59 for Auckland depending on the precise search phrases used. Everywhere else in the country it's zero.

    Auckland • Since Mar 2007 • 4097 posts Report Reply

  • Matthew Poole,

    the warning issued against Ambrose by Police Assistant Commissioner Malcolm Burgess

    (emphasis added)

    Those two words highlight exactly the problem. Out here in mortal land, a crime which carries a sentence of only two years would struggle to attract the attention of a detective sergeant. Out here in mortal land, such a lowly offence as unlawful interception of communications would be fobbed off onto the desk of the nearest detective constable (or maybe a full detective if there was one with time to spare) and ignored by anyone holding any kind of commissioned office except inasmuch as it is a singularly unusual crime so would stand out in reported statistics.

    Assertions that all complaints are treated equally by the police ring very hollow when an officer of the very highest non-politically-appointed rank (whose holder will, without question, have designs on offices higher still) is involved in the investigation into a very low-level crime. Even the likes of Richie McCaw would be lucky to get a detective senior sergeant speaking about the outcome of an investigation into someone tapping his phone.

    If the police had handled this like any other investigation, without undue high-level involvement, there would've been much less egg to be thrown around on discovery that Ambrose was telling the truth the whole time. By turning it into an exercise in political favour-seeking, it was never going to be impartial in its findings.

    Auckland • Since Mar 2007 • 4097 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Russell Brown,

    I know, right?

    I'm not quite proficient enough in duckspeak to understand Key's point there.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10641 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Russell Brown,

    Attachment

    I wonder if this was inadvertent as the initial image for the stream

    ETA: Sorry, I think "inadvertent" in Keyspeak is "invertant", which might mean something different to what I think.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10641 posts Report Reply

  • Kumara Republic, in reply to Phil,

    It's all coming out now. People have forgotten the incident where the disturbed person tried to climb/fall into the debating chamber. This was leading up to the last general election. Telling footage of John Keys appalling response was censored from the parliamentary video tape within 30 minutes. Never to be seen again. I estimate 2 seconds was censored. I wonder who did that PM?

    Still online, although it's only a distant shot.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5426 posts Report Reply

  • Matthew Poole,

    Also, I would like to nominate "metadata" as the PAS WOTY. WOT decade, probably, but certainly WOTY.

    Auckland • Since Mar 2007 • 4097 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    COMING DOWN THE PIKE ….

    It appears that the police getting Ambrose’s texts wasn’t the only news in that case file.

    Winston Peters says it shows that the police tried to get his phone records too.

    He alleges that Key’s office was “in the loop” on the investigation. And that police were told to brief Wayne Eagleson on everything they did.

    He says the reason given for police interest was the spotting of someone in a NZ First t-shirt near the cafe.

    Holy shit. I see why the police tried so hard to prevent release of that file.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22761 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to Matthew Poole,

    Also, I would like to nominate “metadata” as the PAS WOTY. WOT decade, probably, but certainly WOTY.

    You'll need to join the queue on that one, buddy.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22761 posts Report Reply

  • Matthew Poole, in reply to Russell Brown,

    You’ll need to join the queue on that one, buddy.

    It's not written down. It didn't happen. If there's a queue, I appear to be at the head ;)

    Auckland • Since Mar 2007 • 4097 posts Report Reply

  • Matthew Poole, in reply to Russell Brown,

    He alleges that Key’s office was “in the loop” on the investigation. And that police were told to brief Wayne Eagleson on everything they did.

    Believable? Oh yes, it surely is. Even from Winston. Key's grubby paws are all over that investigation, right the way up to an assistant commissioner looking over things and running point.

    However, [citation needed].

    Auckland • Since Mar 2007 • 4097 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Matthew Poole,

    It's a priority queue, not FIFO.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10641 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to Matthew Poole,

    However, [citation needed].

    Currently, it’s on Winnie’s Facebook page (interesting method of press release) but I see Stuff have picked it up now as has the Harold

    EDIT: I see he said it in the House, during General Debate.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2930 posts Report Reply

  • Matthew Poole, in reply to nzlemming,

    The denial from the police doesn't say it was never considered, only that it was never attempted. Something about angels on the head of a pin.

    Auckland • Since Mar 2007 • 4097 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to Russell Brown,

    Transcript here, if you’re a glutton for punishment.

    Was anyone able to read that? The page said "Download PDF" but gave you a docx file which I haven't been able to either open or convert :'-(

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2930 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    I tweeted the police's nothing-to-see-here response to Peters, which also says this:

    Police note that Mr Ambrose was not subsequently charged with an offence in this matter, as Mr Ambrose took the pre-emptive action to write a letter of apology to the affected parties. Mr Ambrose was then given an official warning by NZ Police.

    And then Bradley Ambrose indicated to me via Twitter that he had made no such apology.

    This doesn't seem to be over yet.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22761 posts Report Reply

  • Matthew Poole, in reply to Russell Brown,

    And then Bradley Ambrose indicated to me via Twitter that he had made no such apology.

    This doesn’t seem to be over yet.

    Has he pursued a defamation action yet? With the release of this information about his text messages, it sounds like it'd be a slam-dunk with no possible defence.

    Auckland • Since Mar 2007 • 4097 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Russell Brown,

    And then Bradley Ambrose indicated to me via Twitter that he had made no such apology.

    I wonder where that idea came from.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10641 posts Report Reply

  • Alfie,

    AUT journalism lecturer Greg Treadwell has started a Givealittle campaign to raise the $38k necessary for Bradley Ambrose to file a defamation claim. He explains his motivation on the Spinoff.

    In an interview with Toby Manhire Ambrose confesses that until the teapot debacle, he'd always voted National and thought Key was a good prime minister. I suspect Key's disproportionate and ill-advised abuse of power may have changed his mind.

    Here's the Givealittle page.

    Dunedin • Since May 2014 • 1388 posts Report Reply

  • Brent Jackson,

    It'll be interesting if this gets to court during the election campaign

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 615 posts Report Reply

  • Alfie, in reply to Brent Jackson,

    I doubt the powers that be would allow that. After all, has Mike Sabin's case been heard yet?

    Dunedin • Since May 2014 • 1388 posts Report Reply

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