Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: The Big 2012 US Election PAS Thread

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  • Will de Cleene,

    If it isn't Obama by a landslide, I'll be surprised. The big takeaway from this campaign is that the US has learned a lot from the Iranian elections. In a bad way.

    Raumati • Since Jul 2011 • 107 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood, in reply to BenWilson,

    What if there's three in there with a T first?

    Ahah. I just checked and there is (or at least was) only one horse starting with T. Anyway, disaggregating it to the second letter would lose the statistical significance and the signal would get lost in the noise :)

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1443 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood, in reply to BenWilson,

    I bet T is very common, Z very uncommon.

    Based on my sample size of one year (and that is all the full fields I'm willing to invest time in looking up on this) I conclude Z is exactly as common as T, making Z horses a particular bad bet.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1443 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to David Hood,

    I just checked and there is (or at least was) only one horse starting with T

    This time. Was that the case for the past data though? :-)

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10633 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to David Hood,

    and that is all the full fields I'm willing to invest time in looking up on this)

    Aw...there could be real money to be made here.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10633 posts Report Reply

  • Kumara Republic, in reply to Russell Brown,

    From what I know, nothing has topped the Rajneesh cult’s poisoning attempt during Oregon county elections. And it didn’t even involve Republicans or Democrats.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5418 posts Report Reply

  • Andrew Geddis, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    Craig,

    Not sure you can say Brown has "bungled" Massachusetts - it's more that he performed well against a poor candidate in the 2010 special election, while this time around the State has returned to form in favouring the Democratic candidate (who happens to be a very strong one). It's worth remembering that prior to Brown's victory, Massachusetts hadn't elected a Republican to the Senate since 1979!

    As for other Senate races to watch, Salon has a list of them here: http://www.salon.com/2012/11/06/ten_senate_races_too_close_to_call/

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2007 • 200 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz, in reply to David Hood,

    If horseraces were organised like the US election, all horses whose name didn't start with T would be let go into the infield to eat oats.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    Propublica is on the case of polling irregularities.

    There seem to be quite a few polling places demanding ID in states where voter ID laws have been struck down. Sheesh.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22754 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    Attachment

    Also, the voting machines would select the winner as shown here:

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • Andrew Geddis, in reply to Russell Brown,

    I cannot understand how the “World’s Greatest Democracy” can be so bad at the basic provision of voting.

    To understand this, you have to understand how incredibly decentralised the process is. You are dealing with 50 different states, each of which can (by-and-large) make their own rules around how the vote will be held. Then, within those states, the actual mechanics of holding the vote is devolved down to the very local level, so that responsibility for setting up polling places/staffing them/running the process lies with a local election board (often consisting of members of a particular party). This, quite obviously, can create wide discrepancies in the basic competence of those involved.

    Why do this? Well, if running an election were centralised under a single agency (like it is here in NZ), someone would get control of that agency and manipulate it to get themselves (or their guys) elected. (This is not a fear, it is treated as being a given.) So, it is thought better to have lots and lots of local folks doing an often incompetent job than one big agency competently screwing the process in someone's favour.

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2007 • 200 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood, in reply to Kumara Republic,

    From what I know, nothing has topped the Rajneesh cult’s poisoning attempt during Oregon county elections. And it didn’t even involve Republicans or Democrats.

    I vaguely remember reading an article in 2008 or 2010 on voter intimidation in early America (esentially when it was an East Coast country. To paraphrase my hazy memories of the article and an early politician "If a man isn't prepared to dodge a bit of musket fire to cast his vote, it is not worth having"

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1443 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz, in reply to Kumara Republic,

    That could happen in NZ: buy a farm in Waikekemukau, ship hundreds of supporters in, adulterate the beer in the local pub right before election day (the Tui/Lion they sell in most rural pubs is pretty adulterated anyway when it leaves the factory), elect some kind of wierd cult leader as mayor.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Brislen, in reply to Hadyn Green,

    you're a gentleman and a scholar and I thank you kindly.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 198 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood, in reply to BenWilson,

    Aw…there could be real money to be made here.

    That’s all that separates me from Nate Silver. (My not) Going the extra mile on my model.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1443 posts Report Reply

  • Miche Campbell, in reply to David Hood,

    I expect Z to do well in the next few years as Zabeel's offspring start to prove themselves.

    Dunedin • Since Feb 2011 • 79 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood, in reply to Miche Campbell,

    I expect Z to do well in the next few years as Zabeel’s offspring

    That's punditry opinion, at complete odds with the aggregated historical data.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1443 posts Report Reply

  • Jolisa,

    Attachment

    As a stress baker with no time to bake today, all I can bring to this discussion is a copy and paste of how I coped last election. With carbs.

    Made some $$ for the PTA (our local school was a polling booth) and maybe helped win it for Obama, who knows…

    Auckland, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 1472 posts Report Reply

  • Jolisa,

    Attachment

    Nothing subliminal about the icing, nuh-uh.

    Auckland, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 1472 posts Report Reply

  • Tim Michie,

    Voting machine not allowing Obama votes now taken offline but my takeaway,

    if you're turned away at the polling place for any reason, ask to file a provisional ballot, ask for the name of the person who turned you away, and call 866-MYVOTE1.

    I'd wish that message was wider spread.

    Auckward • Since Nov 2006 • 614 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz,

    the voting machine that switched a person's vote from Obama to Romney has been recalibrated

    What, it's an analogue computer or something? Calibration?

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    From the context, I think they mean they haven't properly set the touch areas. But "calibration" probably sounds more sciency.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2930 posts Report Reply

  • Tim Michie,

    And amongst other issues the inverse has appeared in Colorado.

    Auckward • Since Nov 2006 • 614 posts Report Reply

  • Miche Campbell,

    From the Twitter parody account @fivethirtynate : Molten variables hiss and roar. On my mind-forge, I hammer them into the greatsword Epistemology. Many are my foes this night.

    Dunedin • Since Feb 2011 • 79 posts Report Reply

  • JP Hansen,

    This made me laugh... hopefully it embeds rather than links.

    http://i.imgur.com/lK21B.png

    Waitakere • Since Nov 2006 • 206 posts Report Reply

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