Hard News: The Big 2012 US Election PAS Thread
389 Responses
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If it isn't Obama by a landslide, I'll be surprised. The big takeaway from this campaign is that the US has learned a lot from the Iranian elections. In a bad way.
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David Hood, in reply to
What if there's three in there with a T first?
Ahah. I just checked and there is (or at least was) only one horse starting with T. Anyway, disaggregating it to the second letter would lose the statistical significance and the signal would get lost in the noise :)
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David Hood, in reply to
I bet T is very common, Z very uncommon.
Based on my sample size of one year (and that is all the full fields I'm willing to invest time in looking up on this) I conclude Z is exactly as common as T, making Z horses a particular bad bet.
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BenWilson, in reply to
I just checked and there is (or at least was) only one horse starting with T
This time. Was that the case for the past data though? :-)
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BenWilson, in reply to
and that is all the full fields I'm willing to invest time in looking up on this)
Aw...there could be real money to be made here.
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Kumara Republic, in reply to
From what I know, nothing has topped the Rajneesh cult’s poisoning attempt during Oregon county elections. And it didn’t even involve Republicans or Democrats.
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Andrew Geddis, in reply to
Craig,
Not sure you can say Brown has "bungled" Massachusetts - it's more that he performed well against a poor candidate in the 2010 special election, while this time around the State has returned to form in favouring the Democratic candidate (who happens to be a very strong one). It's worth remembering that prior to Brown's victory, Massachusetts hadn't elected a Republican to the Senate since 1979!
As for other Senate races to watch, Salon has a list of them here: http://www.salon.com/2012/11/06/ten_senate_races_too_close_to_call/
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Rich of Observationz, in reply to
If horseraces were organised like the US election, all horses whose name didn't start with T would be let go into the infield to eat oats.
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Propublica is on the case of polling irregularities.
There seem to be quite a few polling places demanding ID in states where voter ID laws have been struck down. Sheesh.
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Rich of Observationz, in reply to
Also, the voting machines would select the winner as shown here:
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Andrew Geddis, in reply to
I cannot understand how the “World’s Greatest Democracy” can be so bad at the basic provision of voting.
To understand this, you have to understand how incredibly decentralised the process is. You are dealing with 50 different states, each of which can (by-and-large) make their own rules around how the vote will be held. Then, within those states, the actual mechanics of holding the vote is devolved down to the very local level, so that responsibility for setting up polling places/staffing them/running the process lies with a local election board (often consisting of members of a particular party). This, quite obviously, can create wide discrepancies in the basic competence of those involved.
Why do this? Well, if running an election were centralised under a single agency (like it is here in NZ), someone would get control of that agency and manipulate it to get themselves (or their guys) elected. (This is not a fear, it is treated as being a given.) So, it is thought better to have lots and lots of local folks doing an often incompetent job than one big agency competently screwing the process in someone's favour.
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David Hood, in reply to
From what I know, nothing has topped the Rajneesh cult’s poisoning attempt during Oregon county elections. And it didn’t even involve Republicans or Democrats.
I vaguely remember reading an article in 2008 or 2010 on voter intimidation in early America (esentially when it was an East Coast country. To paraphrase my hazy memories of the article and an early politician "If a man isn't prepared to dodge a bit of musket fire to cast his vote, it is not worth having"
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Rich of Observationz, in reply to
That could happen in NZ: buy a farm in Waikekemukau, ship hundreds of supporters in, adulterate the beer in the local pub right before election day (the Tui/Lion they sell in most rural pubs is pretty adulterated anyway when it leaves the factory), elect some kind of wierd cult leader as mayor.
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Paul Brislen, in reply to
you're a gentleman and a scholar and I thank you kindly.
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David Hood, in reply to
Aw…there could be real money to be made here.
That’s all that separates me from Nate Silver. (My not) Going the extra mile on my model.
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Miche Campbell, in reply to
I expect Z to do well in the next few years as Zabeel's offspring start to prove themselves.
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David Hood, in reply to
I expect Z to do well in the next few years as Zabeel’s offspring
That's punditry opinion, at complete odds with the aggregated historical data.
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As a stress baker with no time to bake today, all I can bring to this discussion is a copy and paste of how I coped last election. With carbs.
Made some $$ for the PTA (our local school was a polling booth) and maybe helped win it for Obama, who knows…
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Nothing subliminal about the icing, nuh-uh.
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Voting machine not allowing Obama votes now taken offline but my takeaway,
if you're turned away at the polling place for any reason, ask to file a provisional ballot, ask for the name of the person who turned you away, and call 866-MYVOTE1.
I'd wish that message was wider spread.
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the voting machine that switched a person's vote from Obama to Romney has been recalibrated
What, it's an analogue computer or something? Calibration?
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nzlemming, in reply to
From the context, I think they mean they haven't properly set the touch areas. But "calibration" probably sounds more sciency.
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And amongst other issues the inverse has appeared in Colorado.
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From the Twitter parody account @fivethirtynate : Molten variables hiss and roar. On my mind-forge, I hammer them into the greatsword Epistemology. Many are my foes this night.
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This made me laugh... hopefully it embeds rather than links.
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