OnPoint by Keith Ng

Read Post

OnPoint: Don't put words in our mouths, Rob

146 Responses

First ←Older Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 Newer→ Last

  • linger, in reply to BenWilson,

    there’s seasonal variation for whatever reason. It should be adjusted for in a better analysis

    Maybe so; but modelling previously observed seasonal variation, without knowing why it happens, is persistence forecasting: better than nothing, but subject to surprising errors.

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1889 posts Report Reply

  • Lucy Telfar Barnard, in reply to BenWilson,

    But I do think that the potential ability to influence prices is several orders of magnitude greater in the pool of buyers that outnumbers the population of NZ investers by perhaps a thousand-fold.

    Yes. I have now gone and looked at the date and numbers of the sales data, and see that:
    a) the sales were February to April, which is the period of peak sales. According to my earlier hypothesis, if overseas investor demand is steady through the year, that would mean that the B&T figures underestimate the presence of overseas investors in the market.
    b) The B&T figures include 3,922 sales. I was going to query what percentage of the overseas investor market B&T covered – if they were really good at attracting that market, their figures would overrepresent overseas investor sales. However, 3,922 sales represent 45% of Auckland sales for that period. If we accept that 30% of the B&T sales were PRC-based (possible), then even if no other B&T sales were overseas investors, and no other agency sold to a PRC-based or other overseas investor (extremely unlikely) then overseas investment would still represent 13% of the Auckland market. That's a meaningful chunk, and certainly enough to drive up local prices, even if it wasn't an absolute minimum estimate of overseas investor presence in the market.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 580 posts Report Reply

  • william blake,

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11199519

    I know I'm on very thin ice using Mr Jones as a reference but this is his area of expertise. (I was actually searching to see if he invests in residential property and it would seem he does not)

    Since Mar 2010 • 378 posts Report Reply

  • Sofie Bribiesca, in reply to Katharine Moody,

    you meant B and T.

    oh yes, typo.

    here and there. • Since Nov 2007 • 6796 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody, in reply to william blake,

    I think Bob Jones misses a possible conclusion as to “why” such a “dumb” proposal is being offered locally. The investment model is likely being run for Auckland properties (and likely by jurisdiction/geographic location for many of the ‘bubble’ cities) in mainland China for mainland Chinese investors. It’s a betting (as opposed to an investing) market – like the horse races, only the house races.

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • william blake, in reply to Katharine Moody,

    Which supports Jones’ point that there has to be an ultimate buyer / owner of the property for the seller / gambler to sell to. There must be an ultimate loser. In the mean time the houses will be tenanted or empty, and the true “winners” are the real estate agents clipping the commission and the City Council raking in the rising rates.

    It would also seem a risky proposition for speculative builders to enter into, to produce the buildings needed to stifle demand. A self contradicting proposition.

    Since Mar 2010 • 378 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha,

    Lew comments on the politics of this fiasco.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19686 posts Report Reply

  • Jeremy Andrew, in reply to Katharine Moody,

    like the horse races, only the house races.

    Yes - I'll have a million bucks for the place on number 14 (Smith St) at Ellerslie please.

    Hamiltron - City of the F… • Since Nov 2006 • 900 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody,

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to Katharine Moody,

    Barfoot’s have another problem – if the letter is authentic, that is;

    Yes, big if. Although you'd hope Garner would have taken some action to satisfy himself of that.

    The letter doesn't say offshore Chinese buyers either. The "despite official denials" part is weird – would a Barfoots agents say that? If it's real, it certainly cries out for follow-up.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22754 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody, in reply to Russell Brown,

    The letter doesn’t say offshore Chinese buyers either.

    I think you can glean offshore by the reference to end of semester and ‘during on holiday’. The student is likely returning to mainland China for the semester break and the agent is referring to any friends/family etc. you come across during the holidays who would like to buy property here. Refer them to me and I’ll pay you a commission (although I love the very politically correct way that is framed):

    I shall show you my appreciation in a tangible way

    It’s been reported as common practice in Aus. No reason not to expect it here as well. That said, have you seen the fees an overseas student gets charged to study here?

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • SHG,

    NEW ZEALAND'S BEST PIES

    Gold Award Winners

    Mince and Gravy: Khemara Yin, The Bakehouse Café, Thames

    Steak and Gravy: Bunchoeun Keo, One Tree Bakery, Mt Maunganui

    Chicken and Vegetable: Srieng Choeu, Fresh Bun Café, Tuakau

    Gourmet Fruit (Blueberry and Spiced Apple): Sao Bunarith, Dairy Flat Bakery, Albany

    Gourmet Meat (Butter Chicken): Srieng Choeu, Fresh Bun Café, Tuakau

    Vegetarian (Bok Choy, Carrot, Parsnip and Kumara): Bunny Te, Angkor Wat Bakery and Café, Bay of Plenty

    Bacon and Egg: Vong Hean, Mairangi Bay Bakery, Mairangi Bay

    Mince and Cheese: Sopheap Chouk, Te Awamutu Bakehouse Café, Te Awamutu

    Steak and Cheese: Roger Cathro, Pak n Save, Petone

    Potato Top Pie: New World Greenmeadows, Napier

    Commercial Wholesale: Phil Lyons, Couplands Bakeries, Christchurch

    Café Boutique (Caramelised Walnuts, Pear and Blue Cheese Tart): Zaqeeyan Zakhiyan, Divine Cakes and Desserts, Christchurch

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/food-wine/70431289/New-Zealands-best-pie-announced

    Rob Salmond's going to shit bricks

    nup • Since Oct 2010 • 77 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody,

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • simon g, in reply to SHG,

    Don't be so infantile.

    As I've repeatedly said on here, Rob/Phil & co have handled the whole matter very poorly, and they deserve the criticism they've been getting for that.

    What you're (unsubtly) doing is taking cheap shots for views they don't hold and haven't expressed. As I'm sure you know.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1321 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to SHG,

    NEW ZEALAND'S BEST PIES

    For whatever it may be worth, seven out of eleven appear to be probably Cambodian. I for one am appreciative and mildly intrigued by the Cambodianisation of NZ's small bakeries. Product and Angkor-wall-art-wise, the establishment at the South end of Waiourou is almost interchangeable with Chch's Sockburn Bakery. You want a glad-wrapped pair of white bread cheese & onion to go with that pie, they got it.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4591 posts Report Reply

  • Kumara Republic, in reply to simon g,

    Don’t be so infantile.

    As I’ve repeatedly said on here, Rob/Phil & co have handled the whole matter very poorly, and they deserve the criticism they’ve been getting for that.

    What you’re (unsubtly) doing is taking cheap shots for views they don’t hold and haven’t expressed. As I’m sure you know.

    Seconded. Maybe SHG should try the test at All Look Same. Funny thing is, these bakers likely hail from SEA countries that traditionally haven't see eye-to-eye with mainland China.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5418 posts Report Reply

  • chris, in reply to Katharine Moody,

    Thanks for that Katharine:

    The most mind-numbing element of this story is the amount of money flooding out of China illegally. The numbers are obscene. Last week the major French bank, BNP Paribas, published an analysis of financial flow statistics for the first quarter of this year tabled by the People’s Bank of China. The French bank concluded that in the first three months of 2015 over $80 billion had been spirited out of China illegally.

    It is necessary to question whether the Chinese offshore investment deregulation will create quite as marked a shift as Liam Dann surmised or whether we’re already well into the choppy seas.

    http://www.mingtiandi.com/real-estate/outbound-investment/china-rationalising-outbound-capital-flows-as-investors-head-overseas/

    Mawkland • Since Jan 2010 • 1302 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to simon g,

    What you’re (unsubtly) doing is taking cheap shots for views they don’t hold and haven’t expressed. As I’m sure you know.

    Indeed. There's been plenty of that sort of cheap self-indulgence on social media, but I have no use for it here.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22754 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody, in reply to chris,

    Chinese offshore investment deregulation

    Think of that as the opportunity for the Chinese proletariat - the poor masses - opening up. The vast majority of the big money of the corrupt ruling elite has already fled.

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz, in reply to Kumara Republic,

    SEA countries that traditionally haven’t see eye-to-eye with mainland China

    I'm trying to think of a country in SE Asia that * has * had traditionally friendly relations with China.

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • Alfie, in reply to Katharine Moody,

    Gee - this is relevant to both/all of the issues canvassed in this discussion;

    That's a very good article Katherine. Does the last line remind you of anywhere?

    For those who can, there is every reason to get out of China. And the perfect landing spot is somewhere where the people don’t ask too many questions and are easily manipulated through flattery.

    Dunedin • Since May 2014 • 1386 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody, in reply to Alfie,

    lol – the whole article reminds me of somewhere. Substitute VAN for AKL and CAN for NZL.

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • chris, in reply to Katharine Moody,

    I don’t think it’ll have an impact on the proletariat for quite some time, they’re struggling to buy homes as is. It will afford the middle class more opportunity, but comparing:

    current rules allow Chinese residents to convert $50,000 worth of renminbi to foreign currency annually.

    with:

    Individuals with net financial assets of at least Rmb1m ($161,000) will qualify for the programme, with total outbound investment limited to 50 per cent of the individual’s net assets.

    I doubt it will do as much to stem the illegal transfers as one might expect or hope. From experience, due to the way these types of regulations are enforced or not, it’s easier to get money into New Zealand than to get money out of China – legally. The NZ Banking sector is neck deep in all of this.

    The vast majority of the big money of the corrupt ruling elite has already fled.

    Or perhaps we’re only seeing the tip of an iceberg.

    Mawkland • Since Jan 2010 • 1302 posts Report Reply

  • chris, in reply to chris,

    The NZ Banking sector is neck deep in all of this.

    I should probably add:

    Chinese residents to convert $50,000 worth of renminbi to foreign currency annually.

    The easiest bypass for that is to send RMB direct via those International money transfer companies you see around the place and convert it offshore.

    Mawkland • Since Jan 2010 • 1302 posts Report Reply

  • Lucy Telfar Barnard, in reply to chris,

    The easiest bypass for that is to send RMB direct via those International money transfer companies you see around the place and convert it offshore.

    Seriously? If it's possible to do that, then it doesn't sound to me like there's any kind of effective ban on taking money out of China at all. Not that I'm saying there should be, of course, only that there isn't.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 580 posts Report Reply

First ←Older Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 Newer→ Last

Post your response…

Please sign in using your Public Address credentials…

Login

You may also create an account or retrieve your password.