Polity by Rob Salmond

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Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland

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  • Mark H, in reply to Stephen Judd,

    Sorry Stephen I'm not sure which of your posts you're referring too, but I agree absolutely about the Boomer generation benefiting most from the speculative bubble. I just find the situation incredibly frustrating regarding the housing market. To underscore the point and belying by own liberal sensibilities I care little of the ethnicity of foreign buyers, but I do care that National is doing nothing to regarding demand in the market or even accurately track the economic forces within the housing market. Frankly really frustrating that the left can't actually attack National on this without it becoming about race.

    Since Sep 2014 • 10 posts Report Reply

  • Idiot Savant, in reply to Katharine Moody,

    Aside from the marriage equality bill, I can't think of another Member's Bill that was passed into law recently. Can you?

    It doesn't need to be passed. It doesn't even need to be drawn (but that helps, a lot). The mere presence of a bill in the ballot, the provision of an alternative solution, crystallizes policy alternatives and strengthens pressure to act.

    Labour and the Greens have changed government housing policy this way (I'd say they'd changed zero-hours contracts as well, but it looks like National is trying to pull a fast one there). Oppositions aren't helpless. Anyone who says they are is trying to sell you something.

    Palmerston North • Since Nov 2006 • 1716 posts Report Reply

  • Matt Crawford,

    Further supporting the hypothesis of offshore money becoming a greater actor in NZ housing is the lack of reaction exhibited by the realestate market to changes in the NZ offical cash rate.

    It was clear during the middle of last decade that ever higher interest rates did little to slow the gain in house prices. From 5% in 2004 the cash rate was cranked to a high of 8.25% in 2007/8, yet housing continued to inflate miles above the level of the rest of the economy.

    Overseas buyers do not borrow from NZ banks, and do not heed NZ rate rises. This, in an of itself, is a problem. Inflation is inflation, and the Reserve Bank is obliged to ratchet the cash rate higher, with corresponding negative effects on business and exports.

    We know that the NZ realestate market is unique in that gains are entirely tax free, and the market is uniquely open to foreign speculation. We know that there are large pools of foreign capital seeking investment. The question isn't are offshore investors buying NZ realestate, but how large a chunk of the market they are.

    I do regret that Twyford was inelegant on his appearance on The Nation. This is a subject that needs more than a little elegance, what with NZ's sordid history of fear and loathing.

    But to pretend that Twyford has invented a racist dog whistle ignores the evidence. Whether speculators from China are buying 40% of available stock is another question, but I absolutely guarantee they're buying some of it. Because our market encourages it by design.

    And in the context of a supply crisis is this good for NZ exporters? For people desperate to get off the rental treadmill? For stretched homeowners struggling with high borrowing costs?

    Wellington • Since Dec 2006 • 58 posts Report Reply

  • Mark H, in reply to steven crawford,

    saficticated

    I don't think that's unreasonable assumption to be able to buy a house in Auckland without taking stupid levels of debt especially when the government intervene on the demand side of the market.

    Since Sep 2014 • 10 posts Report Reply

  • Stephen Judd, in reply to Mark H,

    Frankly really frustrating that the left can’t actually attack National on this without it becoming about race.

    Sure, it's frustrating. I find I can live with it rather than just bursting into the Herald, myself.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 3122 posts Report Reply

  • AdrienneK,

    Amid all the kerfuffle, this study came up in my timeline about global land acquisition - and it seems like actual science - can someone a bit more scientifiky have a look and interpret the date cos it looks very relevant to this current debate.
    http://www.kimnicholas.com/land-acquisitions.html

    BTW China, the UK and US dominate global "land grabbing"

    Auckland • Since Jul 2015 • 1 posts Report Reply

  • Mark H, in reply to Stephen Judd,

    Well the quoted text is more frustration than anything else, frustration with the market, frustration that National is doing nothing with the demand side of the market, frustration with the fact the left can't even attack National about this without being called racist.

    Since Sep 2014 • 10 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to Matt Crawford,

    But to pretend that Twyford has invented a racist dog whistle ignores the evidence. Whether speculators from China are buying 40% of available stock is another question, but I absolutely guarantee they're buying some of it. Because our market encourages it by design.

    Nope - Twyford is being pilloried because he's still going out there and trying to spin dodgy conclusions drawn from weak evidence that I pray wouldn't pass muster in a halfway decent first year university paper.

    And every time I hear Twyford chirp "this is just confirming what everyone knows is true" I despair that he's likely to end up holding a Cabinet portfolio where leading with his gut rather than sound evidence-based policy could do real and lasting harm.

    frustration with the fact the left can't even attack National about this without being called racist.

    Well, I kinda share your frustration there Mark, but not in a way you're going to like. If a certain segment of "the left" don't like being called racist anymore than certain segments of "the right," that's all on them. Stop making it so damn easy. It really is that simple.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 12370 posts Report Reply

  • steven crawford, in reply to Matt Crawford,

    And in the context of a supply crisis is this good for NZ exporters?

    Only if the exporter owns a house out right, in Auckland which they could sell for squilions. See my previous comment regarding manufacturing plant equipment.

    As an aside, I haven’t had a lot of luck with Chinese equipment. But my friend has an old school Chinese lathe, which is easily as reliable as a Russian one from the same period.

    Atlantis • Since Nov 2006 • 4411 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Matt Crawford,

    I do regret that Twyford was inelegant on his appearance on The Nation. This is a subject that needs more than a little elegance, what with NZ’s sordid history of fear and loathing.

    Andrew Little has no regrets.

    "We understood the risks but we thought that having got information that clearly highlights an issue that is consistent with what we've been saying, we made the judgment it should be disclosed. I think people need to know."

    But finally rolls out a little more nuance.

    "Our first moral duty is to those who live here, and that includes those of Chinese ethnicity who have chosen to live here, or whose parents or grandparents chose to live here. They are the people we care about."

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19706 posts Report Reply

  • Alfie, in reply to steven crawford,

    As an aside, I haven’t had a lot of luck with Chinese equipment. But my frend has an old school Chinese, which is easily as reliable as a Russian one from the same period.

    Car? Manservant?

    Dunedin • Since May 2014 • 1434 posts Report Reply

  • Mark H, in reply to Stephen Judd,

    We can do something, but the left has given up on economics but that's cool. I'll retreat back into my little cave. But when the music stops, that's when we all going to really hurt.

    Since Sep 2014 • 10 posts Report Reply

  • Mark H, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    True Labour made too easy for National to attack them on this

    Since Sep 2014 • 10 posts Report Reply

  • steven crawford, in reply to Alfie,

    Car? Manservant?

    Thanks for that. I manages to edit, in the nick of time.

    Atlantis • Since Nov 2006 • 4411 posts Report Reply

  • Rob Stowell,

    FWIW I don't think Labour/Twyford were dog-whistling. Labour stuffing up the framing is sadly unsurprising. But I'm still shocked this is a story about Labour fuelling racism and not the govt sitting on its hands with its eyes shut while out-of-control foreign investment fuels Auckland's property bubble.

    ‘hard-working Kiwis’

    Jeez I hate this. Any party that doesn't want the votes of laid-back lazy-ass kiwis is alienating a lot of us. But seriously: it feeds a nasty self-righteous work-is-the-only-thing-we-value narrative that's as dishonest as it is bigoted.

    Whakaraupo • Since Nov 2006 • 2108 posts Report Reply

  • Stephen Judd, in reply to Mark H,

    the left has given up on economics but that’s cool.

    Well... some of us haven't, but the post 84 consensus has a lock on the discourse. In the course of this discussion, I've started to feel that a possible reason we keep having the OH NOES IDENTITY POLITICS thing blow up is that this is the only area where change feels possible any more; questioning the underpinnings of our current economic arrangements can only be done in the gentlest way before you're considered crazy.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 3122 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to Stephen Judd,

    questioning the underpinnings of our current economic arrangements can only be done in the gentlest way before you're considered crazy.

    Or you take the path of terminal political geekery. Why Barnett's bizarre brainfart generated so little reaction compared to Twyford's own goal is outside of my limited comprehension. As far as I know, it's not something that Barnett's resiled from yet.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4593 posts Report Reply

  • Rob Stowell, in reply to Stephen Judd,

    questioning the underpinnings of our current economic arrangements can only be done in the gentlest way before you’re considered crazy.

    The usual suspects will cry ‘crazy’. But the level of support Bernie Sanders is getting in the US raises the possibility there could be a sea-change in the offing.
    Labour and even the Greens’ tendency to buy into market gospel has pushed more than a few votes Mana’s way. It’s sure frustrating.

    Whakaraupo • Since Nov 2006 • 2108 posts Report Reply

  • Swan,

    If this is a bubble, as some are suggesting, that is great for nzers. When the foreign investors sell up en masse we will have ended up with a large transfer of wealth from China to NZ. Also house prices dropping is what we want, right?

    Birkenhead • Since Feb 2011 • 86 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha,

    Twyford doubles down, misrepresents critics.

    Aucklanders from all walks of life have offered their views. Many have welcomed what they see as a long overdue debate. Others, notably in the Twittersphere, have been quick to accuse me of racism because I have talked about a particular ethnic group.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19706 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Matt Crawford,

    Further supporting the hypothesis of offshore money becoming a greater actor in NZ housing is the lack of reaction exhibited by the realestate market to changes in the NZ offical cash rate.

    Yes. Also changes to leverage ratios. We insisted that people have much higher equity. The market didn't even pause. All it did was lock out the poorest aspirants. Our problem is not a sub-prime bubble.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10650 posts Report Reply

  • Mark H, in reply to Stephen Judd,

    Well that's positive, yes I tend to agree that the left is more 'comfortable' talking about the identity politics thing rather than economics. Further National knows it and exploits it.

    Since Sep 2014 • 10 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to Swan,

    If this is a bubble, as some are suggesting, that is great for nzers. When the foreign investors sell up en masse we will have ended up with a large transfer of wealth from China to NZ. Also house prices dropping is what we want, right?

    Trouble is that if it's happening, it's being influenced by an even bigger bubble. If a lot of capital flees the two Chinese stock markets, it's going to go somewhere.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22825 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Sacha,

    Andrew Little has no regrets.

    Far out, what a ridiculous equivocation by Nick Smith. Because Pacific Island immigration is exactly like massive capital coming from China, and Labour is proposing dawn raids on Chinese workers here.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10650 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha,

    Race Relations Commissioner comments.

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19706 posts Report Reply

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