Polity by Rob Salmond

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Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland

521 Responses

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  • nzlemming, in reply to BenWilson,

    There’s lots and lots of contributing factors

    I did say "partially" ...

    It's just as plausible that the problem is too many people watching Homes Under The Hammer on the Living Channel and deciding to build a property portfolio for their retirement. I don't say that's the cause, but it's equally plausible. The point is we don't know and, minus that information, it was completely irresponsibly of Labour to pump out a message that a) takes external investment as a prime cause, without being able to prove it and (more reprehensibly) b) sheets that "cause" home on a particular nationality.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2930 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to nzlemming,

    Pretty much my point. Which is why Labour shouldn’t have gone ahead in the manner they have.

    Well, my point is that when you want to make it clear that good analysis is virtually impossible, maybe doing the best you can and everyone seeing just how weak it really is isn't a bad way of showing that better data should be kept. At this point, it's almost like the data shows most by far of the foreign investment coming from one region. The challenge is down - if you want to show that isn't true, then please keep some official stats on it. Looking at you, National, as the actual government.

    Any other ideas on how to find the numbers would be cool - I don't personally know. But what isn't cool is a situation where the government literally refuses to allow the numbers to be known by anyone who isn't prepared to conduct a very comprehensive survey and analysis (and probably a very expensive one at that), the kind of thing that governments have both the power and the money to do.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10641 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to nzlemming,

    It's irresponsible of National to make it impossible to even have a debate about this based on more sensible facts. Which one matters more? A possible racial gaffe by the Labour Party, or the entire nation unable to understand the potentially biggest drivers of the largest and most dynamic part of its economy?

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10641 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to Katharine Moody,

    But to do nothing in the face of the Government’s refusal to collect proper data .. is that what you see as a more appropriate response to the Auckland affordability crisis?

    Absolutely not. But what they have done is made it more unlikely that the Government will collect proper data, because now they can yell "race card" instead. Really looking forward to the next Question Time and the supercilious responses from Ministers #not

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2930 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to BenWilson,

    Well, my point is that when you want to make it clear that good analysis is virtually impossible, maybe doing the best you can and everyone seeing just how weak it really is isn’t a bad way of showing that better data should be kept.

    When you want to make such a thing clear, then that is what you say. You don't say "our analysis shows that Chinese buyers are buying out of proportion to their population, therefore they are non-resident and thus the problem" - that is so what you don't do if you have any moral integrity and respect for facts, as well as for the people you are targeting. That is, however, what Labour chose not to do. I doubt they could have managed it worse if they'd got Farrar and Slater to write the release.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2930 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to nzlemming,

    But what they have done is made it more unlikely that the Government will collect proper data, because now they can yell “race card” instead.

    We'll see. At this point, it could be race card or it could be actually true. Which one do you think most National supporters think it is? We're talking about the demographic I personally most regularly hear groaning about all the Chinese buying up their investment properties. The other one I hear it from is Labour supporters. That's the bit that's scary about this. If your official policy is to refuse decent information, then you do rather leave yourself vulnerable to decent misinformation.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10641 posts Report Reply

  • Danielle, in reply to Katharine Moody,

    But to do nothing in the face of the Government’s refusal to collect proper data .. is that what you see as a more appropriate response to the Auckland affordability crisis?

    But it's not an either-or! "Instead of doing nothing, we should do the only other thing available: a racebaity thing!" I refuse to believe that those were Labour's only options.

    Charo World. Cuchi-cuchi!… • Since Nov 2006 • 3828 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to nzlemming,

    You don’t say “our analysis shows that Chinese buyers are buying out of proportion to their population, therefore they are non-resident and thus the problem” – that is so what you don’t do if you have any moral integrity and respect for facts

    I don’t really follow. That actually looks like it could be a fact. As close as we’ve got to one, anyway.

    ETA: I guess I should ask my other question again. We can argue till we're blue about what Labour shouldn't have done. But what do you think they should have done regarding this issue that is, after all, a pretty big part of the current public mood? Just thrown up hands in despair at the lack of information and let National get a free pass?

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10641 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody, in reply to nzlemming,

    I think your wrong on that. I think the Government will be forced to collect data. The opposition in Parliament is driving the agenda these days. Look at zero-hour contracts. Under pressure from opposition parties and the union movement - Woodhouse first said he'd outlaw zero hours. Sure, now they are wiggling around on that commitment - but even the Chamber of Commerce guy on telly this morning criticized them for that (and for their stance on work safety amendments). The tide is turning - thanks to the opposition finally becoming more effective.

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • talkie_toaster, in reply to Sue,

    Don't worry. Since you are the second person to call me a "troll" without any attempt to discuss or address my points, and one of the many people who've revealed that you're not really statistically literate, I'll definitely fade away. There's really no point. You got me: I give up. Clearly, this is not a blog that welcomes new ideas or discussion points. This is clear.

    So, you can all go back to your heartfelt discussions of identity politics and how any analysis that uses race is racist and feel self-satisfied and smug and happy in the knowledge that even while the Labour party is losing over and over again, at least you're losing in a way that can't possibly be construed as racist. In other words, you'll continue to do the National Party's job for them. by uncritically accepting their framing of events, and not even backing your own goddamn ministers when they use entirely uncontroversial statistical techniques to make entirely uncontroversial statements that everybody here secretly agrees are actually true (Chinese money is flooding the Auckland property market).

    It's a shame though, because this country is genuinely going to crap while you're engaged with your self-satisfied navel-gazing and I'd really like a genuine opposition that actually talks about things that non-political non-academic normal kiwis give a shit about and does so in an unapologetic manner.

    Not particularly confident that this will happen, so I guess I'll go back to the Greens, who at least know what they stand for. G'night!

    Aucks • Since Jul 2015 • 30 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to BenWilson,

    Any other ideas on how to find the numbers would be cool

    You could do it, relatively easily, by using the data I suggested from various agencies and cross-referencing it to eliminate residents. That would require changes to legislation and I would be very circumspect about letting National change the privacy aspects of the Revenue Act or the Privacy Act - be careful what you wish for.

    Or, you could require property purchasers to declare residency status, set up an information trail via LINZ to the Overseas Investment Office who would compile a register of non-resident purchasers (might need some tweaking of the Overseas Investment Act and Regulations) which would be a metric shit-load simpler.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2930 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to BenWilson,

    It’s irresponsible of National to make it impossible to even have a debate about this based on more sensible facts.

    I literally choked on my tea when I read this. This is the National Government you're talking about.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2930 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody, in reply to nzlemming,

    nzlemming - you need to be the Government to do either of those two things!

    What could the parties in opposition do - right now - to find the numbers?

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to BenWilson,

    That’s the bit that’s scary about this. If your official policy is to refuse decent information, then you do rather leave yourself vulnerable to decent misinformation

    National don't care. If you haven't learned this fact thus far, we must not be reading the same media.

    THEY DON'T CARE:
    - about facts
    - about evidence-based decision making
    - about reasoned analysis or criticism
    - about transparency
    - about actually having a meaningful discussion about anything.

    They prefer other people spouting misinformation because then they can be all-wise and say "if you knew what we know, you'd understand why you're wrong" without any intention of ever sharing the information. They're happy to have people spouting misinformation because then they can call them on it without having to reveal anything, most of all, that they don't have the information themselves.

    Disabuse yourself of any belief that the Key government (besides whom the Bolger government is like unto a pane of glass) has any intention of revealing anything if it can make their opponents wriggle on a hook of their own making.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2930 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to Katharine Moody,

    What could the parties in opposition do – right now – to find the numbers?

    They can’t. It’s really that simple. The mechanisms are not in place.

    [edit] and if you can't find the real information, that should be the point of your release, not to say some "leaked information" shows something to be the case when it's a partial subset of one vendor's customer set. For every leak, someone had a motive for leaking it. If you don't know what the motive was, you don't run with it unless you can confirm it from a secondary source. Journalism and Politics 101. Both the Herald and Labour have forgotten this.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2930 posts Report Reply

  • Danielle, in reply to talkie_toaster,

    That was a bloody long flounce. Could have done with some judicious editing, I reckon.

    Charo World. Cuchi-cuchi!… • Since Nov 2006 • 3828 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to Katharine Moody,

    I think your wrong on that. I think the Government will be forced to collect data.

    We'll have to see. I doubt it, though.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2930 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to Danielle,

    That was a bloody long flounce. Could have done with some judicious editing, I reckon.

    As long as it's permanent. He's already on my "nothing to see, scroll along" list.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2930 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to nzlemming,

    I literally choked on my tea when I read this. This is the National Government you’re talking about.

    LOL, well, true. I forgot their free pass to be irresponsible, which Labour has to pay good votes for. I didn't expect to have to be the one stamping it, though.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10641 posts Report Reply

  • Yamis,

    I'm 'with' the toaster. While you might not agree with them, they've made made some points but the PA regulars are pumped up on something and have the gloves on. KO.

    Play the ball not the 'man'.

    Since Nov 2006 • 903 posts Report Reply

  • Danielle, in reply to Yamis,

    Which points? The consistent misrepresentation of everyone else's nuanced arguments about data analysis, non-resident property speculation and racism? That great moment when he said "so what?" to Tim feeling othered in his own country? Um, OK.

    Charo World. Cuchi-cuchi!… • Since Nov 2006 • 3828 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to nzlemming,

    My feeling is that we have a public already predisposed to believe the analysis. Just denying it won't be good enough. And I would include most of the local ethnic Chinese I know in that. They're at least as likely to groan about all the foreign Chinese driving up prices as anyone else.

    Also, just because I dislike National doesn't mean I think Labour has got some moral high ground, some onus to give only the purest academic grade research every time they crank out an opportunistic statistic. It's not going to get my vote, but they'd be having to work pretty hard on that anyway.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10641 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to BenWilson,

    I dislike bullshit opportunism by any party. I'm not and never have been a member of any political party, though I was a union rep in an earlier life. You may be right about the predisposition but that doesn't mean we should give Labour a pass for pandering to it. I'll settle for a morally higher ground than National, which doesn't take much doing and so is all the more miserable when they fail.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2930 posts Report Reply

  • Kumara Republic, in reply to BenWilson,

    Also, just because I dislike National doesn’t mean I think Labour has got some moral high ground, some onus to give only the purest academic grade research every time they crank out an opportunistic statistic. It’s not going to get my vote, but they’d be having to work pretty hard on that anyway.

    Thankfully we have a political system that allows 3rd parties to get a foot in the door.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5420 posts Report Reply

  • linger, in reply to Danielle,

    TT had, I think, an entirely valid point in (repeatedly) insisting that the racist framing of the issue came from media reports rather than from the wording or interpretation used in the original analysis. This whole snafu really seems much less a matter of “OMG I can’t believe Labour used a racist dogwhistle, WTF were they thinking!?” and more a matter of “OMG Labour totally stuffed up their media strategy yet again” – as a result of which it got turned into a racist dogwhistle.
    Labour really have been tone-deaf and clueless enough in their dealings with the media over the past few years that I’m perfectly willing to believe it’s (another) cock-up rather than a conspiracy.

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1889 posts Report Reply

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