Polity by Rob Salmond

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Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland

506 Responses

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  • Michael Homer, in reply to nzlemming,

    but there’s a hoop or two to jump through first, and a licencing agreement to accept

    The "hoop" is providing an email address and the licence just agreeing not to retain certain data that may have become hidden. It's not an obstacle.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 85 posts Report Reply

  • Lucy Telfar Barnard, in reply to Stephen Judd,

    The flipside of an overseas landlord not being around to do shit to help you is they can’t hurt you as easily either.

    The Residential Tenancies Act 1986 requires landlords who are out of the country for 21 days or longer to appoint a local agent.

    'Course, the tenant has to know about that to complain about it.

    Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 585 posts Report Reply

  • Ian Dalziel,

    Chinatown redux...
    a quote from Paolo Bacigalupi's The Water Knife that seems apposite:

    "Pure data: you don't believe data, you test data... If I could put my finger on the moment we genuinely fucked ourselves, it was the moment we decided data was something you coud use words like believe or disbelieve around."

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7950 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    The guy who just sold me some beer is trying to buy a house with his wife.

    They've been to nine auctions so far and all nine have been won by telephone bidders.

    He did feel like he was up against it.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22848 posts Report Reply

  • John Farrell,

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 499 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood, in reply to John Farrell,

    With the houses thing only being with one day of the polling period, it can' that've had much effect.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody, in reply to David Hood,

    Agree – my perception is that the opposition collectively have been driving government policy for a few months now. Winston’s win in Northland really giving the other side of the house a collective confidence boost.

    JK called the election early for a reason.

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • John Farrell,

    The Barnum Effect must be wearing off. (Whoops - I was meaning this as a comment on PT Barnum's famous comment - but now I find psychologists use the term for something quite different).

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 499 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to Katharine Moody,

    JK called the election early for a reason.

    because Joyce and English both knew the downturn was coming

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 19740 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody, in reply to Sacha,

    Yep, and he did too. Made the basis of their campaign on a return to surplus all that more despicable to my mind.

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • Kumara Republic, in reply to David Hood,

    With the houses thing only being with one day of the polling period, it can’ that’ve had much effect.

    Twyford’s political MOAB will either go horribly wrong and cause considerable team-kill casualties, or it’ll go horribly right and a lot of shady characters will propel Labour to victory in 2017.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5441 posts Report Reply

  • Kumara Republic, in reply to Sacha,

    because Joyce and English both knew the downturn was coming

    And if Tiwai Point shuts down, Tim Shadbolt will naturally blame the Govt in power, making things more interesting still. In any case we’ll probably have cheaper electricity, and powerco investors will take a bath, making a mockery of the Mixed Ownership Model.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 5441 posts Report Reply

  • Alfie, in reply to Kumara Republic,

    And if Tiwai Point shuts down... we’ll probably have cheaper electricity...

    Unfortunately that's unlikely, unless you live in Bluff. The Manapouri power goes direct to Tiwai and there are no high capacity lines to ship it north when (not if) the smelter closes.

    Meanwhile, Steve Braunias opens The secret diary of ... A non-resident foreign investor for a bit of light relief.

    Dunedin • Since May 2014 • 1438 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz,

    The Manapouri power goes direct to Tiwai and there are no high capacity lines to ship it north when (not if) the smelter closes

    There are lines - the current problem is that they don't have capacity to ship power South, not North. Obviously, power doesn't have to be transmitted all the way from a generator to a user. If Tiwai Point closes, Manapouri will (e.g.) supply all the power to Dunedin and points south, so they won't sink power from Christchurch, which will mean there'll be more power for the North Island, etc.

    There's also a difference between peak power and continuous energy - even if the lines are at full capacity at peak times, they won't be at off peak times and it will be possible to export power north, avoiding the use of water in the Clyde and other dams.

    Also, the system is already being enhanced, both in the lower South Island and the Cook Strait interconnector:

    http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/if-tiwai-point-smelter-shuts-no-problem-getting-power-auckland-ck-138278
    https://www.transpower.co.nz/sites/default/files/plain-page/attachments/LSI%20Reliability%20GUP%20Attachment%20C%20-%20Power%20System%20Analysis_1.pdf

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • Kalka River,

    <i>Well, we have a good comparison case to test this idea: the ethnically Indian population in Auckland. It has 8% of the population, 6% of the high-earning population, and it is growing even more quickly than the ethnic Chinese population, including through immigration at similar rates. That means the Indian population is subject to similar dynamics of incoming capital for new residents, and has the same need to find new places to live.</i>

    Effing stupid that is....the Indian age, earning profile is heaps different. For example Indians are allowed large families. Quite possibly for every one productive Indian investor in the country there are more kids, and brothers and sisters here through chain migration.

    Whereas for every one Chinese there are hardly any kids, brothers sisters etc.

    Does Twatford not know that not only in China where it is enforced, but most East Asian places including Hong Kong and Taiwan have the lowest friggin birthrates int eh world? Whereas the subcontinent has much higher birthrates.

    You need to consider the age profile, the earning potential, and the average net worth.

    By the way this analysis is bullshit.

    Don't want foreign buyers of land. Just friggin ban it then. Probably won't make a difference to prices.

    Banning land sales to foreigners is not racist.

    But Twatfords pathetic little stunt is.

    Auckland • Since Jul 2015 • 18 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood, in reply to Kalka River,

    Where are you getting your evidence for that from, because from what I could find in the public census Chinese nfd and Indian nfd are actually pretty similar?

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody,

    In relation to getting accurate data - here is a source/method suggested by a poster on another site;

    http://www.interest.co.nz/news/76601/latest-roy-morgan-poll-sees-national-suffer-sharp-fall-their-main-rivals-benefiting-first#comment-821036

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood, in reply to Katharine Moody,

    I think it is missing the murky world of trusts (and that is something to look out for in whatever figures the government eventually releases form the information it is going to start to collect in October), but I would agree with the general idea that there are a bunch of ways the government could get reasonable data if it really wanted to.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody, in reply to David Hood,

    Yes. I’ve been thinking that this wish to conceal by the government goes way beyond simply wanting to protect an ideological position (i.e., foreign investment is good). I actually think that if a major correction is on the cards (meaning the likelihood of our Aus banks foreclosing on a big chunk of the local private debt), then the last thing the government wants is any restrictions/disincentives toward direct foreign investment.

    Presently, offshore purchasers are competing with kiwis, but what if there are no kiwis to compete (i.e., virtually no local credit and little local cash) – we are a very, very indebted nation (private debt levels that is – public debt less a worry, but we still rely in that regard on foreign masters as well). And the bond markets will punish us based on sentiment and opportunity - little guys are lovely to pick off.

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • Kalka River,

    "But can Labour conclude on the preponderance of all available evidence from the aggregate data that there is likely a large impact of offshore investment from China in Auckland’s real estate market? Yes."

    No.

    What a effing stupid conclusion.

    All you can conclude, is that people of Han Chinese ethnicity are disproportionately involved in house buying, relative to their percentage of the population in Auckland.

    You then cannnot simply jump to the conclusion that this is is “likely a large impact” on the market—–cause the market is affected by a whole lot of other factors.

    What has the large impact requires a far more fine grained analysis - not this babyish crude shit that you and Twatford put out.

    Auckland • Since Jul 2015 • 18 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood,

    In the last quarter REINZ reports about an increase of 4 billion dollars in house price sales compared to the previous quarter. The reserve bank reports that the total value of mortgages loaned by banks increased by about 1.5 billion in the same quarter. That is a rather large difference to account for without overseas money. Note: I am purely working with increases here.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to David Hood,

    Nice digging! That is more than just indicative. It does presume that mortgages are the main way that residents buy houses. They could buy outright from other assets they sell. But that's a heck of a lot of money. If they were switching from, say, shares, then you'd expect to see the sharemarket take a 2.5 billion hit.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood,

    Going and looking at the share market, it looks to have been pretty flat in the grand scheme of things this year, in what measure the index is calculated by. Wages have also been pretty flat, Particular since only a few people's wages contribute to buying a particular price, the magic money didn't come from true remarkable wage growth either.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody, in reply to BenWilson,

    Exactly. But mortgages (I suspect) are also the way most foreigners buy houses as well. So, I'd say, that's one heck of a lot of highly leveraged QE/ZIRP created money finding its way here.

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Katharine Moody,

    Would we even notice 4 billion in debt increase in the Chinese banking sector? Especially since shadow banking there seems pretty big?

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

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