Hard News: Last Words
203 Responses
First ←Older Page 1 2 3 4 5 … 9 Newer→ Last
-
Greens are getting my party vote. Although some of their policy is anti-science, more of it is evidence-based than any other party. Also, their MPs behave like adults.
I was surprised that this didn't make the MSM :
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1111/S00500/ombudsman-points-to-nationals-agenda-for-more-asset-sales.htm
Is it a non-story or just too hard to fact-find on ? -
Apropos the polls -- I think the landline issue is very real. The polling companies claim they correct for this, but they don't say how. I find it hard to imagine a way of doing this that isn't voodoo, because by definition, we know nothing about the preferences of people we cannot contact, and extrapolations from people who are otherwise demographically similar might be very wrong.
Another thing that we should take into account is the very large number of people who simply refuse to participate. Up to half the people rung in a typical polling run, I believe.
If we look at the work of Bryce Edwards' students we see that there is a distinct possibility that polls are both inaccurate AND influential on voter choices. I find this quite worrying. I think polling companies should be required to state the proportion of calls refused, the number of undecideds, and the methods used to weight their samples for demographics.
My plan for tomorrow, assuming I'm not in bed with a burgeoning cold, is to be spending the day at Rongotai Labour HQ, running errands, making tea, reheating sausage rolls, whatever.
-
Apropos the polls – I think the landline issue is very real. The polling companies claim they correct for this, but they don’t say how. I find it hard to imagine a way of doing this that isn’t voodoo,
I think what they do is simply weight the opinion of those people they do get on landlines more heavily. For example, if they need 24 beneficiaries under the age of thirty but they can only find twelve who answer a landline, then they just double their opinion weights.
i am open to correction on this, but I think that is what happens.
-
Mark Easterbrook, in reply to
Stil, can’t complain about the MP I have. David Shearer, who should canter home in Mt Albert, strikes me as one of the most genuine people I’ve met in politics. He’s hardworking, humble and intelligent.
I had a quick chat with him outside Pak N'Save the other day and that's exactly how I felt too. He seemed to be feeling just a little bit awkward about having to do the handshaking/babykissing stuff, which I think says good things about a politician.
-
It might be interesting here in Palmy Vegas. The Nats have gone pretty hard on trying to roll Lees-Galloway but it has been so long between drinks for them that you have to wonder about how much real chance they have but they got to within 1,000 vote last time. Certainly the National candidate has been very noticeable around the town but I dunno whether that translates into votes.
I think that after 9 years of the last Labour government and the shambolic last year, in particular, people were entitled to a change but enough, eh? How much more do we have to endure to know that this is the same old slash and burn National party. Nice suit, lovely hair but why are you carrying a flame-thrower? -
James Butler, in reply to
But if I’m thinking about that, how much of Green’s soft support will think the same way?
If you're thinking that, don't you also have to think about how much of the Greens' soft support will also think about how much of Green’s soft support will think the same way, and thus vote Green? Or how much of the Greens' soft support will also think about how much of the Greens' soft support will also think about how much of Green’s soft support will think the same way, and thus vote Labour? (:
-
webweaver, in reply to
The Greens got my party vote
Craig, you have no idea how inordinately happy I felt when I read this. You rock!
-
Russell Brown, in reply to
I had a quick chat with him outside Pak N’Save the other day and that’s exactly how I felt too. He seemed to be feeling just a little bit awkward about having to do the handshaking/babykissing stuff, which I think says good things about a politician.
I mentioned on Twitter that I'd seen him doing the same outside the Pt Chev Countdown and someone said they'd seen him a few days before, planting trees down at Oakley Creek. On his own. No crowd, no photo-op.
I think that says a lot about the man.
-
Russell Brown, in reply to
Good Lord, if DPF’s latest hysterical attack on Winston Peters isn’t proof NZ First is over the 5% threshold according to National’s internal polling I don’t know what is.
I think Farrar tipped over into the simply maniacal about two weeks ago.
-
I think I'll be voting King/Greens in my Rongotai zone. I'd like to vote for Russell Norman (people named Russell rule after all...and Norman is just #nzmusic #mint topical) but I have always thought that King was a decent politician and I fear a big split vote in this hood (I am surrounded by hippy loonies everyday; they are the young parents of my peer group and my good friends).
This whole campaign has been so strange. Neither Goff nor Key have the oratorial presence of Lange, Muldoon or Clarke or even Bolger for that matter. I think Goff is much better in front of a live audience than a TV one. In saying that he took the debates seriously and Key did not. I don't like Nationals policies on many levels but it's the arrogance of that man that really freaks me out. He used to perform as the nice guy to distract the centrists from what English was up too. He's lost his composure over the teapot tapes and just seems to be generally a bit pissy and sick of campaigning. He is polling so high he just sort of doesn't want to lose as opposed to trying to win. He is the ABs at half time in twickenham 99...but Labour aren't France me thinks.
Ah well. It's a bit awful for a liberal wimp such as myself. Luckily people like Toby Manhire, Hayden East, David Slack, Keith Ng and Russell have been so entertaining on twitter during the whole campaign. How come it's all guys getting super crazed over the election in my twitter feed, is it like RWC part 2? Not that the numerous women I follow aren't talking about the election, they just seem less umm insane....
-
Ben McNicoll, in reply to
If you’re thinking that, don’t you also have to think about how much of the Greens’ soft support will also think about how much of Green’s soft support will think the same way, and thus vote Green? Or how much of the Greens’ soft support will also think about how much of the Greens’ soft support will also think about how much of Green’s soft support will think the same way, and thus vote Labour? (:
Yep. Recursive.
This is about the point I remind myself that one vote does far less than how many people you can convince to vote in a particular direction.
-
Ben McNicoll, in reply to
... it’s the arrogance of that man that really freaks me out. He used to perform as the nice guy to distract the centrists from what English was up too. He’s lost his composure over the teapot tapes and just seems to be generally a bit pissy and sick of campaigning. He is polling so high he just sort of doesn’t want to lose as opposed to trying to win. He is the ABs at half time in twickenham 99…but Labour aren’t France me thinks.
Labour could be France, but the game started at 50-28, and the ref looked the other way for the first half. And has been trying to apply penalties equally, so as not to appear biased.
-
Party vote Greens. Here in Wigram the electorate vote doesn't mean much, but that's ended up gong to the Green candidate as well. Keep MMP with STV as an alternative.
For the detailed reasoning behind my votes - here's one I prepared earlier -
Good Lord, if DPF’s latest hysterical attack on Winston Peters isn’t proof NZ First is over the 5% threshold according to National’s internal polling I don’t know what is.
It could also be a very reliably indication that Peters has a blindingly obvious track record of being a divisive, toxic and unreliable presence in every government he's been a part of. Just to throw a crazy idea out there.
We need to seriously address issues of real, organic democracy in this country, from how to re-create mass-participation political parties to reform of the media, party funding and lobbying laws. Otherwise, we will are on a path to revist the 1930s when democracy was seen as discredited in the light of economic crisis and political failure and people will seek other political structures to replace it.
Since I doubt Russell wants to have to charge up the cattle prod of loving correction today, I'll just say I find your analogy fundamentally flawed.
The Nats have gone pretty hard on trying to roll Lees-Galloway but it has been so long between drinks for them that you have to wonder about how much real chance they have but they got to within 1,000 vote last time.
As I understand it, boundary changes have made Palmerston North more marginal on paper - but I think National would be pretty pleased if Leonie Hapeta shaved Lees-Galloway's majority back to three figures and won the party vote.
-
FletcherB, in reply to
I think question 2 is wrong.” Under which system do you vote for a party and an electorate MP?”
correct answer PV!?
I've just re-taken it and they have corrected it... SM&MMP it is...
-
Heather Gaye, in reply to
(**FULL DISCLOSURE**: The Greens got my party vote. Got a problem with that? Tell someone who gives a shit – that ain’t me.)
au contraire, I want to give you a big hug, although you'd likely find that equally offensive. It's confirmed every good thing I already believed about you, for what that's worth. Is there a "happy tears" emoticon?
-
Sacha, in reply to
Norman is just #nzmusic #mint topical
heh
-
Sacha, in reply to
one vote does far less than how many people you can convince to vote in a particular direction
+1
or even just convince people to vote
-
oh yeah...and this was awesome; what the two major party leaders were thinking about at the same moment this morning;
https://dl-web.dropbox.com/get/Public/IMG_6121.jpg?w=02601469
-
I think that the Greens should get everyone's party vote. To keep the other bastards honest.
-
Sacha, in reply to
Labour could be France, but the game started at 50-28, and the ref looked the other way for the first half. And has been trying to apply penalties equally, so as not to appear biased.
and one team has managed to convince the other (and the ref) that they're actually playing netball
-
This has been a disappointing election, police raiding media up and down the country, the pm kicking off the campaign with misleading parliament over the s+p comments, the country being held to ransom to hive off assets despite our dire history with asset sales and the dubious economic justifications surrounding the sales
Further the machinations of act, and Epsom, from apparently the most ‘popular’ pm we have ever seen, just demeans us all
-
Craig you are a complex man...Green party vote as they are the stable coalition party that National need? Gareth Hughes can show them all how to text and email and stuff. And I'm sure the Greens in coalition with National could share some mean mix tapes. Out with that The Feelers song about counting people (but only if the stand up, easier to see them whilst counting), in with Skeptics Affco (nah actually probably in with some bbq reggae or *gulp* some mellow indy pop).
-
Labour could be France, but the game started at 50-28
you just improved my bad analogy ten fold!
-
merc,
One bonus, if the Nats get in and the Greens perform really well over the next 3 years, I don't see National back in power for a very very long time. That's how it works here no?
Post your response…
This topic is closed.