Hard News: Last Words
203 Responses
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Ben McNicoll, in reply to
or even just convince people to vote
Well, getting out a voter is one point, but every mind you change is a vote less for the other side, plus a vote for your <edit rel='let's not reinforce entrenched gender pronouns'>candidate/party/political leaning</edit>, so counts twice in a way.
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Craig you are a complex man…Green party vote as they are the stable coalition party that National need?
I'm not 100% down with the policy agenda, but Russell Norman and Metiria Turei are doing better impersonations of competent grown-ups (and the idea of being an effective check and balance) than Doctor No and his ghost chips front bench.
And, frankly, it's been disturbing watching people who should know a lot better swooning over Winston Peters like a pack of Twi-twits trapped in a lift with Taylor Lautner.
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Bart Janssen, in reply to
I’ll vote how I always vote :-)
Yeah and I think interestingly that's probably the way it will be for most people.
Somehow despite actually having policies to argue about and having some truly awful candidates to be horrified at (looks at ACT) - I think most folks will vote the way they've always voted.
I think that says something important but I'm not sure what.
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Sacha, in reply to
the dubious economic justifications surrounding the sales
Gordon Campbell's latest on that is recommended.
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Richard Aston, in reply to
t is a charade where the citizens have been reduced to spectators in a horse race reported by a media that is completely decadent and morally dysfunctional, yet we call it “democracy”.
+1 to Tom
My feelings as well -
Bart Janssen, in reply to
I think that the Greens should get everyone’s party vote.
That would be amusing. Greens with 100% party vote and no electorates - we'd have something like 200 MPs with that.
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Here’s what I wrote in my Facebook status the other day:
In Saturday’s election I’ll be voting Green for my party vote because they focus on taking care of our environment and all our people in a sustainable, socially responsible, community-based way. In short, they care about the things I care about.
I’m voting for Grant Robertson because I think he’s done a great job for Wellington Central over the past 3 years.
I’ll be voting to keep MMP because I believe that our representatives in Parliament should reflect the diversity of the people of New Zealand – and that the fairest and most effective way of governing is by consensus.
Rich said:
I would have voted Green, if they removed all the equivocation from this page and just said that they will not support National on confidence and supply during the next parliament and will consider any legislation against their policy and principles.
This is how I see it. There is a possibility that National might not get enough seats to govern alone (please God make it so!).
If Banks loses in Epsom (a strong possibility, looking at the gap between him and Goldsmith in the polls) then ACT is toast. If Charles Chauvel can roll Dunne in Oariu (running neck & neck in the polls) then UF is toast too. That leaves the Maori Party as National’s only buddy in Parliament.
As Winston has already said he won’t work with either side (and assuming he can resist the baubles of office if they do get over the 5%), I can see some scenarios where National might actually need the Greens to at least abstain on C&F in order to get things passed.
Initially that completely freaked me out – the thought that the Greens might actually help National. OMG. However, I now see it in a much more pragmatic light. My biggest concern (of many) about National is that they will try to get asset sales pushed through Parliament. The Greens have said that “no asset sales” is an absolutely bottom-line issue for them – one that they won’t budge on.
This means that a strong Green vote, with as many Green MPs as possible, may be a powerful foot in the door that prevents National from having the numbers to get asset sales approved. Labour won’t be able to do anything to prevent it happening directly, because they’re the opposition – but a strong Green Party in a position where National have to bargain something away in order to get something else from them – just might.
I trust the Greens not to bargain away any of the big things that really matter to me – opposing asset sales and opposing deep sea oil drilling for example – and they have already shown that they can work with National on things like home insulation without selling their collective soul to the devil, as it were.
Although ideologically I guess my preference would be for the Greens to stick to making agreements with other left-wing parties, if it’s a question of agreeing not to disagree with some policies that you may not like much but which you can live with – in exchange for getting the really really really bad policy (asset sales) off the agenda, I think I can live with that.
ETA: Of course in an ideal world I'd like to be looking forward to a left-leaning coalition winning the day tomorrow, but that ain't gonna happen, so having a strong Green party in place to mitigate a really really bad result (for me) is the best outcome I can hope for
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Can I interject at this point (probably not for the first time) and say how much I’d like to see an MMP option with Preferential Voting for electorates. Those two systems are not mutually exclusive.
It would probably make tactical voting easier/more predictable, so would probably need the 5% threshold removed or lowered to compensate.
But on the plus side, more of the community would be happy with their choice of electorate MP which must be good for engagement and local representation. And it might mean smaller party candidates actually get a shot at some electorate seats.
Or would it lead to larger parties being guaranteed the electorate seats? Are there some downsides I’m missing?
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Sacha, in reply to
a strong Green vote, with as many Green MPs as possible, may be a powerful foot in the door that prevents National from having the numbers to get asset sales approved
True. Where do people see the Maori Party standing on that now, as the other potential minority partner?
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Ben McNicoll, in reply to
Where do people see the Maori Party standing on that now, as the other potential minority partner?
It’s my belief that Maori Party would vote for asset sales if there were some preferential treatment for Iwi investors. I think they would sell that as a win for their constituency.
And I’m pretty sure I recall Pita Sharples saying something similar, or at least hedging his bets in that direction, recently.
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Another important poll result.
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Sam F, in reply to
And I’m pretty sure I recall Pita Sharples saying something similar, or at least hedging his bets in that direction, recently.
Yup, on NatRad earlier in the week. He didn't confirm whether or not they'd support sales if consideration to iwi investors wasn't on the table.
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Sacha, in reply to
preferential treatment for Iwi investors
which Key duly refused, to avoid upsetting the Orewa vote..
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Rob S, in reply to
My understanding is that there is a line of thought in the Maori Party that various Iwi would take up the offer of these utilities.
I'm in 2 minds in regard of this as I view them as long term holders so that a portion of NZ gets the economic benefits from them instead of overseas carpetbaggers.
However I feel that Government ownership is preferable as the benefits flow to the country as a whole.
I can see the Maori Party voting for partial sale as long as some ownership quid pro quo was dropped in to make political capital that they can show to their voters -
More than a little glum about all this. Perhaps naively, I thought Joyce's bullying disregard for public transport would have more of an impact on the party vote up here, but seems not.
And I can't help but feel that asset sales - if they actually go ahead - will be one of those 'that's a f**k up for the ages' type calls we'll only regret more as the years trundle by.
Hey ho. The Greens have got my party vote again; like a lot of others, I think they've run a good campaign. Metiria Turei, in particular, has really impressed me and the (likely) new MP's look to have plenty of talent - kia kaha Denise!
All of which means this time round I'll happily vote for Jacinda Ardern in Auckland Central. Wish there were more like her at the right end of Labour's list.
From what I can tell, Nikki Kaye's been competent, visible and very hard working. Astonishingly - to me at least - she *phoned* my wife back in response to one of our regular rants about the clowns who run Fullers. Didn't change a thing, mind, but still...
So, I have felt some sympathy for her over the awful, awful policies they keep trying to biff our way. Not much though. Anybody know what the polls look like in Auckland Central?
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hamishm, in reply to
I thought that their " Iwi not Kiwi" billboards might have blown it, but evidently not.
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Ben McNicoll, in reply to
which Key duly refused
For now. Before the "actually, this is the only way to do what we need to do, so this why you should vote out MMP" talking point.
It works both ways for him.
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Kumara Republic, in reply to
…unless it’s for uneconomical white elephant motorway projects that are counterproductive to NZ’s long-term economic development and expose our economy to future oil shocks. Those are fine to spend money on.
In a few words: socialism for the rich.
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merc, in reply to
Joyce knows that his highway is a ribbon of oil to carry bigger diesel trucks to carry the petrol from the offshore oil rig to go in the cars that pay the tax on the oil that pays for the police and the soldiers...you get what I mean.
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Ian MacKay, in reply to
Farrar’s exclusive has been destroyed as an anti-NZF ploy, by Sprout and Graeme Edgler who have pointed out that Winston is eligible under the Electoral Act and nothing to to with the Incorporated Societies Act 1908.
So of course they must know that NZF is over the threshold and in a piece of poetic justice Winston will be able politely be in a stronger position than had they left him alone this time, and last time for that matter. Some strategic NZF votes coming up. -
Peter Darlington, in reply to
He is the ABs at half time in twickenham 99...but Labour aren't France me thinks.
*Polite applause*
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Carol Stewart, in reply to
Astonishingly - to me at least - she *phoned* my wife back
She phoned me too, Richard, in response to an irate email from me about National Standards (which she was defending). I was very taken with her even though I continued to disagree. And I'm not even remotely in her electorate.
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Gordon Campbell's final column before te election carries on the rugby analogy.
Thanks to the abysmal standard of the refereeing, John Key – the Richie McCaw of New Zealand politics – was allowed to trap the ball and get away with murder. On (a) asset sales, (b) the Epsom tape and (c) the employment (non) effects of raising the minimum wage, the Key government did not release information – including Treasury advice and research paid for by the taxpayer – highly relevant to the main issues of trust and substance in this campaign, and yet no-one penalised them for doing so.
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I will be spending the entire day knocking on doors and asking people politely if they have voted and whether they would like a lift to the polling booth. Sounds like a lot of fun, doesn’t it?
I will be voting for Team Red. I like the Greens, and I think a Labour/Greens government would do wonders for the country. But I still see Labour as the main party of the left, and once they’ve sorted some of their shit out I think they will return stronger than before.
I’m also motivated by the fact that where I live in Te Atatu the National candidate is worse than useless, and the Labour one Phil Twyford is excellent. Twyford’s in danger of losing his list seat if Labour bombs badly and if he doesn’t win the electorate, so there will be a big contingent in Te Atatu fighting hard on the day.
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Gee, it has been a while since I posted here. I can attach stuff to my comment now.
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