Hard News: Time to Vote
249 Responses
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bmk, in reply to
Greens always underperform polls. Last election they ended up with 11% and I think that's where they will end up again after specials.
In terms of Labour the problem is simply Cunliffe. I knew so many people who said they simply couldn't bring themselves to vote for him. Under Shearer, as incoherent as he could be, Labour was always above 30% and often in the mid-30s. Sadly I'd been dreading this result and while hoping it wouldn't eventuate kind of knowing it would - I just hope Labour can use it to get rid of Cunliffe or they will be confirmed to this result again in 2017.
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Green voters tend toward affluent, opinionated, educated, and proud of their vote, so they poll really high.
Clutha-Southland has got about 75% turnout, after specials.
Rangitata about the same. The big rural safe national seats are getting a somewhat low turnout and being counted first. It will swing left from here, just a matter of how much. Probably not enough, especially lacking Hone, as National gets one of those seats.
Edit: Invercargil is more like the nationwide balance, but only 74% turnout. If it's low in the big cities National could be in alone. -
Caleb D'Anvers, in reply to
Seriously, what don’t people like about Cunliffe? He’s (apparently) literate? Occasionally speaks in complete sentences? Doesn’t have John Key’s face?
For me, though, this is making the decision to apply for indefinite leave to remain in the UK and move on later this year much easier to make. What Mark Taslov says in the other thread about the 700,000 New Zealanders who have left the country really resonates. Why are New Zealanders so politically naive? So easily lied to? It can’t just be the media, surely?
Ah well, I guess if I ever get homesick, I can always Google pictures of Wellington seascapes. :/
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Having trouble understanding how, even in a strong Labour electorate, party vote goes to National. Just seems wrong to me.
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If we're looking at three years of a national owned parliament crowing about a mandate to break the law, lie, cheat, and steal the nations assets... yeah I get why people leave the country.
I know the precedent is watergate, and nixon's resounding re-election after the story broke, but god it's depressing. It is the sort of thing that makes you wonder just how little you know the people you live with.
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tussock, in reply to
In terms of Labour the problem is simply Cunliffe.
I don't think that's true, you know. Cunliffe held the party share of the undecided once he got campaigning, the last six weeks labour held and National lost nearly 10% in the polls. Before then the National Party attack machine was on and anyone would have failed at that.
The mass media (which, BTW, gets millions of views every day, unlike here or any other blog) simply bought into the National-Slater newsfeed like it was a real series of independent leaks. All labour voters saw was this appearance of a deceitful man. The basic idea is they attack them for their strengths, with Shearer they'd have dug up something to ruin his humanitarianism, with Cunliffe they targeted his honesty and policy numbers, with blatant lies that the media simply print en masse, because that's who he is.
Plus, votes aren't counted yet. -
Looking like a National win. Its amazing what some people will do for money. A Nation of whores? Or a rigged election?
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bmk, in reply to
Seriously, what don’t people like about Cunliffe? He’s (apparently) literate?
What I repeatedly hear from my partner, co-workers etc is that he 'looks fake', 'smarmy'. I get the feeling he says what he thinks people want to hear. He seems smug and pleased with himself. I would hear him on National Radio and think no way can i vote for this guy (and this was without even seeing him). Whereas the moment David Shearer stopped being leader he sounded so articulate - I think the party only needed to stick with him and give him more media training.
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NZ used to have reputation as a place that believed in "fair play". I wonder if some of what we've seen here is that fair play spirit working to defend the local boy against the attacks of a suspect foreigner.
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Alfie, in reply to
I wonder if some of what we've seen here is that fair play spirit working to defend the local boy against the attacks of a suspect foreigner.
With a good deal of media support for that view.
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80% Dunedin South turnout. It is higher in the more Labour areas (though both Dunedin electorates are mixed now, rural and city).
Hone Harawira is out by the look of it, that's a big cost to the left.
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tussock, in reply to
A Nation of
Language, sir. Manners, and it's not done yet. Big boxes come last, and they come hard for the left.
Having said that, last election what I heard from them was "well, yes, but I trust John Key". This election is was "well, yes, but we're doing alright".
Thus the "don't rock the boat" ads. It was a good campaign they ran, avoided the policy like crazy, because no one likes them. But we are a nation of boomers just passing retirement age, with their houses paid for and everything in family trusts for the kids to dodge all the taxes, and the rest of us are going to be supporting them with everything we've got for a long time yet at this rate.
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83% Palmerston North. Trend is good for the cities. National seats have had a poor turnout, they usually have the better of it by quite a bit.
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Joe Wylie, in reply to
But Kelvin Davis took the seat, is that good?
Depends on whether you reckon another Shane Jones is a good thing.
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krothville, in reply to
Big boxes come last, and they come hard for the left.
I don't think it'll be anywhere near enough. Word is that there are a lot of special votes this election, but I don't think it'll be enough to sway any of the seats. Most look like they have gone by a margin of over 1000.
Also, I have a feeling those special votes are from first time voters who actually somehow or another managed to not complete the enrolment process. -
The local Internet Party candidate’s Facebook page has suddenly vanished. Anyone know if Dotcom’s still in NZ?
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Joe Wylie, in reply to
The post-mortem on Christchurch Central will be interesting.
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krothville, in reply to
Yes, it was bloody ridiculous! I can't even understand what they were even thinking.
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Trevor Nicholls, in reply to
Anyone know if Dotcom’s still in NZ?
He was standing behind Leila Harre a few minutes ago, so I guess the answer is either yes, or he has a very expensive holographic representative
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Oh, 65% turnout in Manurewa. Yeh, never mind. Overs. Well done National, congratulations to the right. Played the man, not the ball, but it won you the game, so that's that.
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Joe Wylie, in reply to
or he has a very expensive holographic representative
If anyone would, he would.
(Disclaimer: I party voted IM, and I’m bloody old. Now what about all the yoof that fiftysomethings who really should have known better were predicting would be motivated & mobilised by Dotcom’s shitemusic?)
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I'd quite like the opportunity to scream at John Key, too.
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Sorry, actually, I see that there are 250,000 special votes, and they won't be finalised til Monday. It could be that a high proportion of them are for the left, so it could change, but I'm not holding my breath.
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I feel pretty much the way I do when the All Blacks lose.
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NZ has voted for hungry kids. Dirty rivers and disgusting politics. More for the wealthy and unscrupulous. Unspecified 'reforms' for welfare and education.
I'm feeling a bit sick.
Bugger. Going to sleep in tomorrow.
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