Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: Trump's Dummkopfs

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  • nzlemming,

    Nate Silver's 538 has Clinton at 85% to win, with 325.4 electoral college seats to Trump's 211.8

    Even if he wins the 3 "battleground states" - Ohio, Indiana* and North Carolina - he can't get enough seats to win. Still, it ain't over till it's over.

    EDIT: Iowa, not Indiana
    My bad.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2929 posts Report Reply

  • John Farrell,

    What I find interesting about this whole schemozzle is the number of Trump supporters infesting New Zealand based web forums, bombarding them with strange pictures of Clinton, and spreading the latest "facts" from project veritas. They don't seem to realise that, to Trump, they are unwanted aliens.

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 483 posts Report Reply

  • andin, in reply to nzlemming,

    Worth a look.

    Prophetic indeed!
    ignorance is not bliss

    raglan • Since Mar 2007 • 1878 posts Report Reply

  • John Farrell,

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 483 posts Report Reply

  • Rob Stowell, in reply to John Farrell,

    What I find interesting about this whole schemozzle is the number of Trump supporters infesting New Zealand based web forums, bombarding them with strange pictures of Clinton, and spreading the latest “facts” from project veritas.

    It's all very strange - and even stranger to consider these anti-Clinton stories emerge from an unholy mash-up of alt-right Breitbartian propagandists and Russian troll-farms.

    Whakaraupo • Since Nov 2006 • 2090 posts Report Reply

  • Hilary Stace, in reply to Rob Stowell,

    Fuelled by some very deep misogynism.

    Wgtn • Since Jun 2008 • 3189 posts Report Reply

  • linger,

    Time to point you at Rich Hall’s US Election Breakdown.
    Available to stream and as MP3 download until Nov 18.

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1885 posts Report Reply

  • Rob Stowell, in reply to Hilary Stace,

    Yeah. Misogyny is definitely a deep strand. The double standards are right there in your face.
    But there's definitely more to it. I reckon it's misogyny plus ... a combination of 20+ years of GOP dirt-digging and Oppo research, throwing so many tonnes of mud, some has stuck, and some things about Hilary that make her hard to like - esp, it seems, if you've only met her on TV, where (I think) she's not good. (People who have known her well, and worked with her, seem to mostly have a far more favourable opinion.)
    I have my own theory about the TV perception (she doesn't enjoy it; she feels self-conscious, which leads to a whole range of things including a perception of fakeness; and she is, for to some degree very good reasons, highly suspicious of media scrutiny. Plus she has definitely been coached to the max, and the misogyny also hits here: when she smiles - and she smiles a lot, because if she doesn't she gets a heap of 'angry woman' nonsense - it can look smug or a little misplaced.)

    Whakaraupo • Since Nov 2006 • 2090 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to linger,

    Time to point you at Rich Hall’s US Election Breakdown.
    Available to stream and as MP3 download until Nov 18.

    Excellent! Thanks

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2929 posts Report Reply

  • Rich Lock,

    So this is....interesting.


    The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff posts an open letter
    essentially saying 'all serving members must remember that the armed forces are politically neutral'. Is this a normal pre-election reminder? Because there are some interesting implications to be read into that, if this is a reminder he has felt it is necessary to issue as a one-off for this year in particular.

    back in the mother countr… • Since Feb 2007 • 2728 posts Report Reply

  • Joe Wylie, in reply to Rich Lock,

    'all serving members must remember that the armed forces are politically neutral'.

    If the next Edwin Walker is out there, surely Trump would be the one to embolden him.

    flat earth • Since Jan 2007 • 4591 posts Report Reply

  • Ian Dalziel, in reply to Joe Wylie,

    If the next Edwin Walker is out there, surely Trump would be the one to embolden him.

    Scratch that itch and we get a Lee Harvey Oswald as well...

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7880 posts Report Reply

  • Tom Semmens, in reply to Rob Stowell,

    What I find interesting about this whole schemozzle is the number of Trump supporters infesting New Zealand based web forums,

    I think we under-estimate the influence of alt-right US based online media here on our NZ right wing. Increasingly the sort of aggressive, paranoid style of the US right pops up here as well.

    Sevilla, Espana • Since Nov 2006 • 2210 posts Report Reply

  • andin, in reply to Tom Semmens,

    aggressive, paranoid

    Group think rears its ugly head

    raglan • Since Mar 2007 • 1878 posts Report Reply

  • Rob Stowell, in reply to Tom Semmens,

    Increasingly the sort of aggressive, paranoid style of the US right pops up here as well.

    It’s here in force. Of course our very own whale thing and kiwiblog (and a few more …) run the same engines. Propaganda/agit-prop with different flavours for different tastes (‘pretending to be calm and rational’ and ‘more-or-less barking mad’) stoking the same fires.
    (Te Std and Daily Blog also howl with the wild dogs. Fevered conspiracy thinking and the hyper partisan screams are everywhere. It’s depressing.)

    Whakaraupo • Since Nov 2006 • 2090 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to Rob Stowell,

    It’s here in force. Of course our very own whale thing and kiwiblog (and a few more

    Farrar once told me that his main regret, when he did the White House tour, was that Karl Rove wasn't available for a meeting.

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2929 posts Report Reply

  • Rich of Observationz, in reply to nzlemming,

    In his dreams...

    Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to Rich of Observationz,

    In his dreams...

    Now that's a place you couldn't pay me to visit...

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2929 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson,

    Trumps chances have been rising rapidly in the final run in. It’s become scary close again. Yes, Clinton has the lead, but as far as I’m aware the probabilities that FiveThirtyEight assigns (currently putting it about 65:35 for Clinton) are true probabilities, to be interpreted as such. They’re essentially saying this has become a game of Russian Roulette with two bullets in the chambers.

    Yes, there are more likely events coming which are not factored into the models, which are based on current polling and historical volatility*. The get-out-the-vote machine for Clinton is better organized.

    But I’m definitely much more nervous than I was a few weeks ago. The weirdest part about the Trump support bouncing all over the place is that it’s not a function of polling noise. In each case it’s been actual trends. Trump has actually trended up and down and up and down and up. It’s like very large number of Americans literally change their minds about Trump vs Clinton based on the latest round of scandals.

    *And turned into probabilities using Monte Carlo simulations based on the underlying distributions.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10629 posts Report Reply

  • Ian Dalziel,

    This Guardian piece, 'Ghastly Trump', is a wonderful use of the font Gorey.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/gallery/2016/nov/02/a-z-of-trump-26-illustrators-picture-a-ghastly-future-in-pictures?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=197693&subid=7516316&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

    and Trevor Noah takes a post-puckerlip-tic take on the next US election...Determinator!

    Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7880 posts Report Reply

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