Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: Democracy Night

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  • tussock,

    At that rate he could sell the super fund to the ACC, and then sell the ACC to the superfund. Think of the profits!

    So, turnouts in National seats are 35k or so, turnouts in Labour seats are 28k or so. Basically, National wins by default when poor people stay home.

    Just 22k in Māngere: that alone costs Labour two seats. Do they not know this? Is there just a fundamental lack of enrolment and engagement there? Language barriers? What? How does that keep happening?

    Since Nov 2006 • 379 posts Report Reply

  • Sacha, in reply to tussock,

    sell the ACC

    to Australian and other foreign insurance companies, as planned

    Ak • Since May 2008 • 16585 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia,

    First thoughts:

    1) Must walk my talk, and respect the 135,000 electors who cast their party votes to return to Parliament a man I hold in utter contempt. OK, media get off your knees, wipe your chins and hold Winston Peters and his ghost chips caucus to account.

    2) Am I the only person who loves Christchurch even more after ChCh Central handed down the most awesome election night WTF EVER?

    3) Shitters for Chris Auchinvole, but Labour re-taking West Coast-Tasman was probably about the only bright spot in a pretty dismal night.

    4) 27.13% actually good for Phil Goff. Seriously.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 11885 posts Report Reply

  • DeepRed, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    4) 27.13% actually good for Phil Goff. Seriously.

    Roughly their 1996 level, so they managed to cut their losses to a certain degree.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 4214 posts Report Reply

  • Tim Hannah,

    Feeling a little weird being in Wellington Central. We're different and kind of freaky. But I'd like to think it's in a good way.

    Conservatives didn't get into parliament. They got substantially more votes than four parties that made it. That's ludicrous.

    Wellington • Since Jan 2007 • 224 posts Report Reply

  • Conrad Lake,

    National has the potential to dip below 48%. In my opinion that is near disaster. Yes we'll be the government and I'm thankful for that. Turnout was dreadful. But more alarming I think is that the right-wing vote has not increased from 2008 and that is terrible. I do not understand some of the thinking that occured from commentators on both TV One and TV Three. Chris Trotter was sulking and frankly being pathetic.

    National may have won but despite that it was not a good night for the right.

    CHCH • Since Apr 2009 • 10 posts Report Reply

  • thegirlstefan, in reply to Tim Hannah,

    The Wgtn Central party vote (provisional) still went to the Nats

    Aotearoa • Since Oct 2011 • 42 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    4) 27.13% actually good for Phil Goff. Seriously.

    When the prospect loomed of an actual collapse, yes.

    I think Labour has to transform now. The union movement doesn't justify its constitutional status in the party at the moment. It's just wrong that Darien Fenton is safe and Carmel Sepuloni is gone. And that Labour's only new list MP is Andrew Little, who ran a useless campaign in New Plymouth.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 18800 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson,

    I'm still reeling in shock at the voter turnout. My guess is that it's not going to be so much the poor in South Auckland, as kids all around the country, who have not shown up. They're unemployed, face an extremely expensive country with low wages, are indebted if they want to train, and have to deal with the fact that there are no socially liberal parties on offer any more.

    I spent the evening with my family, and an old friend of theirs, a pure-blood Waitakere Man. Small business owner, making bags, but since retired. Initially I was a bit worried he was going to turn out to be a Nat with a stonk for Pullya Benefit, but no, turned out he'd voted Labour+Green+MMP+abstain. We kept checking Sepuloni all night and the brief blaze late in the piece where she was ahead looked sweet. Specials might help her...349 is not much of a lead.

    This shit is still close, people. It is a bumout, of course, but suddenly Key really does look like he's leading the legion of the damned. No way is he going to fix the economy - his three pledges in his premature victory speech, more jobs, better wages, less debt, would need to be the precise reverse of what he has achieved to date. How those can credibly be achieved by lowering the minimum wage, dropping taxes, and selling off productive assets, whilst doing nothing at all about the baby boomer bulge hitting retirement, and an impending property crash, is utterly beyond me. His only true ally, ACT, has been destroyed, leaving only that Prime Fuckwit Banks to pretend that there was once a party there. He mentioned that he'd spoken to the leader of the ACT party already that evening, without realizing that Brash had already resigned. Sharples must be a bit shocked too, and wondering if cozying up to the Nats really was worth the fleas that have bitten him - 746 majority is not a happy position to be in as one of the top guys.

    I'm thinking a Nat minority government might be the smartest move that every party other than ACT could make. They can then actually represent as representatives should, on each and every issue attempting to forge consensus. If National won't play ball, they'll be the ones seen as uncooperative fools. Only 2 people outside of the National party were elected just because they support the National party - Banks and Dunne. Dunne might even swing with the numbers, that's just how he rolls.

    If Key truly did suggest putting the assets into the super fund it's about the only sensible thing the guy has said all year. It's a new idea, something his party has been short on for 15 years.

    For the real humor of the night, to see Horan has entered Parliament actually cracks me up. I used to play in the same team as him. He's the perfect understudy for Winston, many was the night I recall him pissing on, making sexist and racist jokes, pressuring me into tipping a waitress so he could get into her panties, etc. I also remember the odd psychotic tantrum he'd have, usually at women or kids, which was no joke coming from someone who looked like they either spent a lot of time at the gym, or supplemented a small time spent there chemically. I felt sorry for him, after I'd left the club primarily because I couldn't stand him, when on New Year's night rambling around Christchurch after a tournament, he trailed my group like a lost puppy, as his own team had ditched him at the first opportunity. Last seen cornering some drunk girl. The only line of his I can clearly remember was when one of the older guys told me a girl in the women's team fancied me, he laughed and said "yeah, well, Ben, she's a nice girl. But I fucken can't stand fat chicks". All class, Brendan, you've made it to the bigtime now.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 8416 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Russell Brown,

    It's just wrong that Darien Fenton is safe and Carmel Sepuloni is gone.

    Oy, wait for them specials before you call it. It's damned close.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 8416 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to Russell Brown,

    And that Labour’s only new list MP is Andrew Little, who ran a useless campaign in New Plymouth.

    Especially when we're talking about flipping the most marginal seat in the country from, let's face it, an incumbent who isn't exactly from the deep end of the National Party gene pool.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 11885 posts Report Reply

  • Rachel Prosser, in reply to DeepRed,

    Oriental Bay Band Rotunda was also available for Oriental Bay.

    Christchurch • Since Mar 2008 • 225 posts Report Reply

  • DeepRed, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    Especially when we’re talking about flipping the most marginal seat in the country from, let’s face it, an incumbent who isn’t exactly from the deep end of the National Party gene pool.

    I most certainly agree that it’s dead wood time. And if I were Andrew Little, I would have invoked the Skynet factor during the town hall debates. Seriously though, getting a real campaign manager wouldn’t hurt.

    The fact that the PSA never put up a serious fight against the public sector cuts speaks volumes of the wider movement’s malaise. And it’s allowed a big wedge to be driven between them and so-called ‘middle NZ’ – the Hobbit War was a case in point.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 4214 posts Report Reply

  • PaulC,

    an interesting election, where are we at?

    Auckland • Since Nov 2011 • 19 posts Report Reply

  • martinb,

    I thought we were in favour of organised labour over disorganised Labour?

    Any way: this is why I like unions

    this is why I dislike weakening unions

    Are we really up for a race to the bottom? And if we were as the TVNZ article suggests what on earth would it really achieve??

    Apart from one silly comment I’ve always found Darien Fenton to be a good shadow minister for labour. Why the dislike of her? Is it more than one ill judged comment on facebook during Whaleoil scrutiny?

    Auckland • Since Jul 2010 • 157 posts Report Reply

  • PaulC,

    the most popular pm won, but without dunne and the mp and good old bankies he's toast, what does that tell you

    election 11 man, its been a blast

    Auckland • Since Nov 2011 • 19 posts Report Reply

  • DeepRed, in reply to martinb,

    Any way: this is why I like unions

    So does Robert Reich, one of the more enlightened speakers to visit NZ. He basically correlates strong unions (not too-big-to-fail ones like 1970s Britain) with a strong middle class.

    A big part of the problem is that those with big money have the resources to ‘hire half the working class to kill the other half’. Which is a big part of what Reich's The Truth About the Economy video clip gets at.

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 4214 posts Report Reply

  • Craig Ranapia, in reply to Russell Brown,

    I think Labour has to transform now.

    At the risk of sounding like a downright concern-troll, a good place to start would be to stop using the list as incumbent insurance/the most brutally efficient recycling scheme ever. Yes, it wasn't pretty in National when some dead wood got exactly the list placings they earned but whatevs... Somehow, the party survived the likes of Brian Connell and Brian Neeson having public tanties.

    North Shore, Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 11885 posts Report Reply

  • Graeme Edgeler, in reply to Richard Grevers,

    They lose one vote by providing a speaker but that would leave them 61-60.

    Nope. The Speaker gets to vote, and no longer gets a casting vote: a change introduced to Standing Orders after MMP, now that parties cast party votes in the House.

    Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 2999 posts Report Reply

  • Keir Leslie,

    Graeme, has there ever been a tie on the night before? (That is, all booths reporting, but with put the specials?)

    Jesus, if you think the Central margin was nervy, imagine being at the Chch Labour election night party.

    Since Jul 2008 • 1326 posts Report Reply

  • DeepRed, in reply to Craig Ranapia,

    At the risk of sounding like a downright concern-troll, a good place to start would be to stop using the list as incumbent insurance/the most brutally efficient recycling scheme ever. Yes, it wasn’t pretty in National when some dead wood got exactly the list placings they earned but whatevs… Somehow, the party survived the likes of Brian Connell and Brian Neeson having public tanties.

    In the case of George Hawkins, he was demoted down the list and hence got the signal to stand only for the Manurewa seat. He still wouldn't go quietly despite signals from Helen. In the end he was pensioned off to the new Greater Auckland council. I suspect also it's partly an issue of Labour holding its broad church together.

    Labour just has to achieve the balance between recruiting fresh talent, and hanging onto the best experienced operators. Suggestions?

    The southernmost capital … • Since Nov 2006 • 4214 posts Report Reply

  • thegirlstefan, in reply to DeepRed,

    well, they at least have to blood someone in for Parekura in Ikaroa-Rawhiti, as he is unlikely to serve the full term. I'm trying to think of names, but to be honest this whole campaign shows that Labour's succession planning is, um, not one of it's strong points

    Aotearoa • Since Oct 2011 • 42 posts Report Reply

  • Graeme Edgeler, in reply to Keir Leslie,

    Graeme, has there ever been a tie on the night before? (That is, all booths reporting, but with the specials?)

    Not that I know of. At least not in a while. Wait for specials. I still a tie, automatic judicial recount. If still a tie "draw lots". But in reality, perhaps not before an election petition to determine whether people should have voted where they did and all sorts of things like that.

    Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 2999 posts Report Reply

  • WH,

    I'm watching Stoke play Blackburn in London, feeling a bit nostalgic for Helen and Michael Cullen, and hoping the special votes might change the preliminary results.

    I may come at this from a different perspective, and I don't know the man personally, but I don't think Winston is really so bad. I think of him as being to the left of the National caucus, particularly Williamson and McCully. He made a genuinely serious mistake in using immigration as a wedge issue, which has permanently alienated him from a lot of good people, but he's done some good things. I remember him for the Winebox, his effort to change the Reserve Bank's inflation target, the proposal for compulsory personal superannuation accounts, and his Asian Tiger inspired economic and export policy. He's not the man he might have been, but he's not in the same category as ACT, whose policies are simply objectionable.

    I support Labour, and watched the debates where I could. It's sad to see Key's hollow charisma win people over like this. I hope you guys can stop the Government from selling everything while I'm away.

    Since Nov 2006 • 571 posts Report Reply

  • Lucy Stewart,

    I'll say: having exerted myself to get our votes in from overseas, the low turnout makes me quite irked. It's the future of the country - at least have a goddamn opinion. In a lot of ways I'd be happier if Nact had got back in with a decent turnout, losing that many votes and still getting back in is just depressing.

    Amherst, MA • Since Nov 2006 • 2093 posts Report Reply

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