The Future

7:57 Mar 14, 2016 22

by John Palethorpe

The latest Coen Brothers offering, Hail Caesar!, is a screwball homage to fifties cinema, a careering narrative where in the end almost nothing has changed significantly. Integral to the story are a group of communist screenwriters who first befuddle and then convert George Clooney’s wonderfully gormless matinee star, Baird Whitlock.

To anyone who has attended a left study group or party meeting, it would have all seemed hilarious and yet utterly haunting. The faith in the all powerful dialectic, the academic sterility of the arguments and the unshakeable belief in the theories which explain the past, the present and also predict the future.

The sheer inscrutability of it all to someone not fully immersed and saturated, leaves newcomers with two choices; either fully commit or get the hell out. It’s a gorgeous microcosm of politics as a whole in fact, or at least it seems that way sometimes. Politics is a hierarchy of the serious where your position within the hierarchy is often determined by how seriously other people in politics take what you say.

Politics is attritional. The vast majority of the public seldom care about the daily grind, the seemingly never-ending warfare of examining every interview, commenting on every issue and become increasingly angry, frustrated and isolated when nobody listens to you. This oft-mentioned beltway, or bubble, extends far beyond the Beehive and encompasses the whole grinding industry of political commentary. And most people, most people, don’t have the time to commit.

But we’re all committed, in a helpless fashion, to the future. The future provides us with the particular pleasure of prediction, the chance to exercise the art of telling a story that hasn’t happened and may never. Possibility lies in the future, hope too. And dread, mind you.

Prediction is a game we can all play, it’s a game we all play. There are no losers, unless you consider guessing wrong a dreadful affront to your intellect. So here’s some questions about the future to consider, I’d be fascinated to have your opinion on them;

Government

National

What does a post-Key National look like and who is in charge?

United Future

Will Peter Dunne become the Hone Harawira of the 2017 election? What does that mean for coalition maths.

Maori

Will the Maori Party be able to continue its role as everyone’s coalition partner if they lose any more seats?

ACT

Can David Seymour revive the party in an electoral sense, and is he relying on peeling off soft National voters to do so?

Opposition

Labour

Are they ready to win yet, or, can they establish the look of a Government in waiting by 2017? If not, is it Jacinda time?

Greens

With Green issues increasingly going mainstream, how can that be translated into electoral success? If it can, where do those votes come from?

New Zealand First

Can NZF continue to punch above its weight without the redoubtable Mr Peters in charge?

Mana

Can they come back?

22 responses to this post

Graeme Edgeler, 08:24 Mar 14, 2016

Maori
Will the Maori Party be able to continue its role as everyone’s coalition partner if they lose any more seats?
This one’s easy: no.
The Māori Party only has one electorate. If they lose that, they’re not in Parliament.
Also, the Māori Party cannot *continue* a role as everyone’s coalition partner.They have only ever been a coalition/confidence&supply partner of National. Maybe they could start, though?

Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 3215 posts Report
John Palethorpe, in reply to Graeme Edgeler, 08:33 Mar 14, 2016

I think that's the idea, that the Māori Party would partner with whoever is the majority party in a Government - beyond left and right, representing Māori. Uncertain if they can actually pull that off as a tactic though.

Auckland • Since May 2015 • 83 posts Report
David Hood, 08:34 Mar 14, 2016

ACT
ACT
Can David Seymour revive the party in an electoral sense, and is he relying on peeling off soft National voters to do so?
(Admittedly this is based on the data for one election back) If your voters like National more than your own political party, and the majority of your voters from the previous election remember themselves as voting for National, then you are not a political party with genuine support. You are a National backed strategic voting initiative.

Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report
Andrew Geddis, 08:36 Mar 14, 2016

The Māori Party only has one electorate. If they lose that, they’re not in Parliament.
But the Māori Party can retain the Waiariki electorate while losing so much of its share of the list vote that it does not qualify for an additional list seat, thereby remaining in Parliament while being reduced to a one seat party (in the same way ACT and United Future have been).

Dunedin • Since Nov 2007 • 206 posts Report
Ian Dalziel, 08:47 Mar 14, 2016

So here’s some questions about the future to consider, I’d be fascinated to have your opinion on them;
Why do I get the feeling we are helping you do your homework?
Perhaps you could put up your thoughts in the same space, as well…
…and surely any exposition on future deals between party members and parties would risk being labelled, and dismissed, as ‘conspiracy theories’?

Christchurch • Since Dec 2006 • 7953 posts Report
John Palethorpe, in reply to Ian Dalziel, 08:49 Mar 14, 2016

I'm a primary school teacher Ian, not a researcher or politico - my homework currently is devising multiplication problem solving questions, working out the national standards for the 6 year olds in my class and getting through Ka Whawhai Tonu Matou (one chapter before bedtime)
I'll give my reckons on this later though, and that's an absolute promise.

Auckland • Since May 2015 • 83 posts Report
Alex Coleman, 08:51 Mar 14, 2016

Events dear boy, etc.
Coming up at some point soon, for example, is the whole water rights debate around Iwi and the Treaty and what 'ownership' means and how any such Iwi ownership will be recognised by the government, if at all.
How ACT, Labour, National, NZF and the Maori Party choose to answer those questions will obviously affect many of these questions.
Could be the Maori Party walks from the coalition. Could be Labour shoots its Maori voters in the back and itself in the foot. Could be the National supports its Maori party ally and ACT and National pick up votes from National's core. Could be something else.

Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 247 posts Report
John Palethorpe, 09:11 Mar 14, 2016

1. Post- Key National
National have some reasonable communicators, but nobody up to Key's standard. The Bill English puff piece in the Herald at the weekend emphasised his boringness (plus he's been there, done that, taken the 20%), Judith is too easily riled. Much like when Auntie Helen left, it'll reveal that the trick to good leadership is to ensure your lieutenants are perfect examples of the Peter Principle. That's not to say there isn't talent there, it's just not ready for the big job.
If Key wins next year, I reckon he'll take a twelve month victory lap to rack up his decade and be gone the end of 2018. If Key loses next year, he'll be gone next year.

Auckland • Since May 2015 • 83 posts Report
Bart Janssen, 09:42 Mar 14, 2016

I think there's a question here that is missing.
Will the youth engage sufficiently to change NZ politics?
There are some odd things going on in politics at the moment. Sanders in the US has somehow (god knows how for such an old white guy) captured the imagination of a group of voters who can't be arsed answering poll questions but are actually getting out to vote for him.
Auckland city has two strong youth lobby groups who are both competent and active. If either group (let alone both) stood behind a group of candidates there is every chance the whole makeup of our largest city's council could utterly change.
Consider what happens to the national stage if somehow the youth vote is engaged - I don't think any of the current parties (yes including The Greens) have any traction with the youth vote.
I really do wonder what happens if they vote and if one group can give them something for which they really want to vote.
As for your questions
National under Collins or Joyce is much less appealing
The Maori party ceases to exist and gets replaced by the new Maori party
Act remains as scapegoat for extreme National policy
Labour undergoes 3 more leadership changes before the next election and dies
The Greens campaign on alternative health care and promote policy by astrology
Can't say I'm impressed by any of them.

Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 4461 posts Report
BenWilson, 10:33 Mar 14, 2016

But we’re all committed, in a helpless fashion, to the future.
Great line, dude.

Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report
tony j ricketts, in reply to Alex Coleman, 10:41 Mar 14, 2016

Could be the Maori Party walks from the coalition.
It will be in National's interest, as well as Maori Party's, if just a few months before the election they have a parting of the ways.
The Maori Party will have a little more cred that they are not National stooges, which could increase their parliamentary representation.
The National Party would be able, if they need coalition partners after the election, to make 'concessions' to bring the Maori Party back to the top table. Their stance on zero-hours contracts show how this could work.
Listening to Marama Fox lately, I'm picking she's the one charged with setting up this narrative over the next year.
And John Key has the choice of election date to consider - look at how he used the early date last time to such effect, especially on Labour with its then-new leadership.

wellington • Since Aug 2012 • 41 posts Report
John Palethorpe, 10:41 Mar 14, 2016

2. United Future.
Dunne's done, I think. I can't see that 750 majority increasing and the manner in which Labour, NZF and others coordinated in 2014 could be repeated.

Auckland • Since May 2015 • 83 posts Report
Graeme Edgeler, in reply to John Palethorpe, 12:16 Mar 14, 2016

Dunne's done, I think. I can't see that 750 majority increasing and the manner in which Labour, NZF and others coordinated in 2014 could be repeated.
Whom is Labour running against him? Does this factor into your conclusion at all?

Wellington, New Zealand • Since Nov 2006 • 3215 posts Report
Rich of Observationz, 12:31 Mar 14, 2016

Will the Chinese economy avoid a banking collapse / FX crunch / rioting and if not, how will NZ parties cope with a new normal of bank failures, negative equity, zero demand for milk and a property crash?

Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report
Rich of Observationz, 12:35 Mar 14, 2016

Dunne is MP for the most white-bread part of the Wellington region. I think his constituency knows to vote for him over National and National know not to try to hard.
Harawira lost because Labour regarded keeping fat Germans out of NZ politics as more important than denying Key a clear majority.
Mana won't come back under current conditions, but if those conditions change (see above) and Labour / Greens fail to offer an alternative to austerity, then a Syriza/Podemos type party will fill the gap (unless TPTB just ban them).

Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report
simon g, 13:49 Mar 14, 2016

Playing the politician's game of not answering your questions but asking/answering mine instead, I'd suggest there's a continuing gap on the conservative right. A succession of failures (Christian Coalition 1996, Dunne's brief expansion of caucus post-2002, Colin Craig etc) but the voters are still out there - see any online forum or talkback. One of Key's political achievements has been to keep them in his column while ignoring their causes (smacking law, Treaty, gay marriage). They jump up and down in anger and then ... vote National. (Although flag-waving Winston keeps some on board).
Absent Key, will they find a more favourable leader? Or will they start yet another project, doing God's work for Godzone? Preferably with 4.9% of the vote ...

Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1333 posts Report
andin, 18:40 Mar 14, 2016

we’re all committed, in a helpless fashion, to the future.
Time isnt on our side at present. As for your questions...well... short termish seems to me. Our present way of organising ourselves is a rod we have created for our own backs, and its breaking us.
We cant carry on like this squabbling, pushing our multitudinous individual agendas as if they are an end in themselves.
But everyone putting aside their differences and consciously working on altering the course and direction of not only our societies but of our species is just too big an ask, because presently we are incapable of it.
That may change I dont know, but not as long as we are locked into party politics

raglan • Since Mar 2007 • 1891 posts Report
Mr Mark, 06:17 Mar 15, 2016

I've set out the details of various public polls conducted over the last 5 years on who people prefer as the next National Party Leader here ...http://subzpsubzp.blogspot.co.nz/

Wellington • Since Dec 2009 • 128 posts Report
Rich of Observationz, in reply to Mr Mark, 08:59 Mar 15, 2016

They're polling the wrong electorate, surely? It's the National MPs who choose the leader.

Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report
Brent Jackson, in reply to Mr Mark, 09:49 Mar 15, 2016

I think that any poll of the general public will suffer from limited knowledge. Many people would only be able to name English as a potential leader, because they don't actually know any other National MPs.

Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 620 posts Report
linger, in reply to Brent Jackson, 11:02 Mar 15, 2016

The framing of the question makes a huge difference. Was it an open-ended question, or was it a list of selected nominees?
In the latter case, the list would presumably be drawn up based on name recognition, e.g. a count of media references within the preceding year.
(It might also be informative to add a complete outsider, e.g. some inoffensive Labour backbencher, to check the limitations of name recognition.)
Also, the question is a hypothetical, so the answer is not guaranteed to be meaningful. A lot could change as soon as some other candidate is introduced as a potential new leader. Would anyone have named John Key as a preferred leader in 2005?

Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1944 posts Report
Rich of Observationz, in reply to linger, 11:05 Mar 15, 2016

I believe that sort of thing gets you drummed out of the market research association lest you unveil the fundamental bogosity of much of their output.

Back in Wellington • Since Nov 2006 • 5550 posts Report