Hard News by Russell Brown

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Hard News: The Day After Tomorrow

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  • Doug Hood,

    And I’m not alone in just wanting the bloody thing to be over-true that, me too

    Kingsland • Since Oct 2009 • 28 posts Report Reply

  • Trevor Nicholls,

    Our information waterways have been inundated with billshit.

    Wellington, NZ • Since Nov 2006 • 290 posts Report Reply

  • william blake,

    Not so much, it feels like buying a lotto ticket and dreaming about all of the good things possible, but after Saturday night you will probably have to live with the same old bullshit.

    Since Mar 2010 • 350 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Campbell,

    I'm trying to be positive ... still hoping for the first real progressive govt in my lifetime (well maybe Norm Kirk's was, I was young)

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 2550 posts Report Reply

  • dave stewart,

    These recent Al Jazeera documentaries about waterways are compelling viewing (part 1 looks at the Ruataniwha Dam proposal, while part 2 is more about Canterbury/ECan):


    The evidence presented does not enhance the reputations of Irrigation NZ, HBRC, MoE/Nick Smith.

    Since Aug 2014 • 35 posts Report Reply

  • Rosemary McDonald,

    As someone who had to be dragged kicking and screaming to change the habit of a lifetime and actually engage with and vote in this election, I am quite frankly shocked at the cornered feral cat response from the incumbents at the merest hint that there might be a Labour/Green government and a real possibility that the train of neoliberalism might just be derailed.

    I sometimes feel that I'm living in some sort of a bubble...or an echo chamber..as nearly all of the people around me see that there absolutely needs to be change.

    Yet, it appears we are in the minority.

    Waikato, or on the road • Since Apr 2014 • 1283 posts Report Reply

  • simon g,

    My optimism/pessimism level fluctuates like the spring weather, but anyway:

    Optimistic - because post-Helen the Labour party has been varying degrees of disappointing, sometimes depressingly so, and it now looks better (not just in polls but in general "vibe") than it has for over a decade, more like first term Helen

    Pessimistic - because the Greens were supposed to go into a Lab/Green gov't in a position of strength (10%+) but now won't, and since every minor party in the MMP era has lost support in government, they will have a real battle even (or especially) if they finally get what they've always wanted

    Optimistic - because if National win, it will be very unpopular very soon, and soon Peters will join Dunne in retirement and the left will win a landslide next time

    Pessimistic - because National will have won in the worst way, and all the wrong lessons will be learned

    Optimistic - because if Labour aren't going to move on tax until 2020 anyway, win or lose, better to do it properly from opposition, with a bold reform programme, instead of having it defined and diluted by ruling in/out things that need to be addressed. Give the "working group" a blank sheet, nothing off the table, and if they say "CGT on everything, and cut income tax or GST" then that can be considered properly, not on the hoof

    OK, enough already.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1203 posts Report Reply

  • Jason Kemp,

    I wonder how much having 600,000+ early votes may have counter balanced some of the late swings. I expect the real gap to close as the election approaches but I do think this is the first time extended early voting has been used to this extent.

    Elections notes that out of 3.2m potential voters as at 21st September there are still 320k not enrolled. Actual votes on the day are usually lower but conservatively perhaps 25% of votes may have been cast already?

    RNZ Nearly half a million NZers have cast their vote on the 18th and notes daily tallies so by today 21st – I’d guess we can at least match the 700k of early votes from 2014 but I think overall turnout will be higher.

    My calculations 80% turnout of 3.2m is 2.56. We don’t know the actual number of early voters before the election but in"2014, 717,579 people voted early.”

    Good points about TOP. They need to have the “don’t be a dick” rule as their first rule. I had hoped some of their policies might be picked up by other parties but the personality of Morgan has obliterated any beneficial contributions they might have had.

    All of the people complaining about the Jacinda effect seem to have forgotten about the John Key effect. I’m pretty sure Key carried 10-15% of the total vote personally and got many swinging voters across the line. The effect might be slightly higher with Jacinda because Labour has been artificially low after years of “no hopism” and in fighting.

    I hope overall vote numbers are up because the trend in recent times has been quite low – but this time there is a fighting chance to change the government.

    NZ Voter turnout trends

    Update: Just found out that Early voting reached 674,000 on 20th September. Voters mark Suffrage Day with record turnout so my calculations at the top of the comment will be on the low side.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 346 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown,

    Rod Oram fact-checks English's claims on income and the economy – and finds them mostly bogus.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22227 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to Jason Kemp,

    Good points about TOP. They need to have the “don’t be a dick” rule as their first rule. I had hoped some of their policies might be picked up by other parties but the personality of Morgan has obliterated any beneficial contributions they might have had.

    I think it's been their problem all along: all about policy, hardly ever about people. Morgan actively refuses to understand how ideas are made manifest in a democracy.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22227 posts Report Reply

  • Jason Kemp, in reply to Russell Brown,

    "hardly ever about people"

    Ironically Both Key and Ardern show what can happen if you are a nice person or in the case of Key very media / people friendly.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 346 posts Report Reply

  • Jason Kemp,

    Apparently latest advance vote numbers are out so it looks like the early (advance) vote may well be 30% or so. Part of this is because more polling booths 485 compared to 295 in 2014 election.

    806k have cast early vote

    Source for Stats is Daily voting stats for future reference. But only 2 days to go for early voting.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 346 posts Report Reply

  • simon g, in reply to Jason Kemp,

    The media focus is on Advance Voting, but it's the enrolment numbers that really matter. For 18-24s they're not encouraging, and there are major differences, e.g.

    Auckland Central and Wellington Central: 27% vs 63%.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 1203 posts Report Reply

  • Jason Kemp, in reply to simon g,

    Sure but Enrolment numbers "3,229,421 eligible voters now on the roll but there are still 340,409 eligible voters who are not enrolled to vote.

    “If you haven’t enrolled yet, you can’t leave it any longer. You must get an enrolment form, fill it in and get it back to us by the end of Friday 22 September,” says Ms Wright."

    It seems like that 34k number might have dropped a little bit.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 346 posts Report Reply

  • linger, in reply to simon g,

    One has to weigh that 340k number against the over 500k adult expat NZers worldwide, about half of whom are not registered to vote. Many would have Auckland as their most recent NZ address, which might explain some of the apparent regional disparities.

    And as I’ve said before, some of the advance votes will also be new registrations – and those figures are not yet included in the official registration stats.

    And as I've also said before, the advance vote total is heading for over 1 million. (I don't think it will get very much higher than that, but it's still comfortably on track for that target.)

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1736 posts Report Reply

  • Grant McDougall, in reply to simon g,

    Optimistic - because if National win, it will be very unpopular very soon, and soon Peters will join Dunne in retirement and the left will win a landslide next time

    Completely agree. Bill English - win or lose - has ran his last campaign as National Party leader.

    If he wins, Nat will indeed become less popular and Judith Collins will stab him in the back, as per Bolger / Shipley. If becoming PM, even if briefly, means taking the Nats down with her, she'll settle for that.

    If he loses, he'll retire to the backbenches, if not altogether, very quickly. He's been in Parliament for 27 years already and he has little stomach for three years in opposition these days, I imagine.

    If Labour does lose this time, nothing is more certain than a) English being rolled and, b) Labour absolutely thrashing National in 2020.

    Dunedin • Since Dec 2006 • 743 posts Report Reply

  • Jim Cathcart, in reply to Rosemary McDonald,

    sometimes feel that I’m living in some sort of a bubble…or an echo chamber..as nearly all of the people around me see that there absolutely needs to be change.

    You are living in a bubble,,,a housing bubble without historical precedent. The problem is that nobody wants to label it as such in public. Unfortunately, change will probably occur, but likely outside the power of any govt initiative. The ramifications of housing bubbles are horrendous and attempts to aggressively promote them as an economic pillar results in warped, high-cost economic structures. Australia is a case in point. Since the GFC, average household weekly disposable income has grown by $27, while house prices have exploded and private debt has gone off the Richter.

    Since Nov 2006 • 221 posts Report Reply

  • Russell Brown, in reply to linger,

    And as I’ve also said before, the advance vote total is heading for over 1 million. (I don’t think it will get very much higher than that, but it’s still comfortably on track for that target.)

    Yep. And double what it was at this point last time.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 22227 posts Report Reply

  • Moz, in reply to linger,

    the over 500k adult expat NZers worldwide, about half of whom are not registered to vote.

    How many of them are eligible, though? Is that 500k who could vote out of 1M total, or 500k total?

    They have to have visited NZ in the last 3 years and I suspect a lot won't. There's the obvious bias there where green voters are much less likely to have flown (let alone internationally), and I'd guess the lower income voters likewise, which might make National a bigger beneficiary of that effect. But I'm going to guess both effects are dwarfed by simple "no reason to go back".

    Sydney, West Island • Since Nov 2006 • 1020 posts Report Reply

  • Zach Bagnall, in reply to Moz,

    They have to have visited NZ in the last 3 years and I suspect a lot won't.

    The three year rule is irritating. It's really an economic test - affluent expats who can afford a big NZ vacation between each election get to vote and the rest do not. Really feels like NZ doesn't want citizens back after a few years away (eg non-residents cannot start a KiwiSaver account).

    Colorado • Since Nov 2006 • 114 posts Report Reply

  • Paul Campbell,

    I lived in the US for 20 years starting in the mid '80s, the 3 year rule made sense then I was very disconnected from NZ and its politics, even though I went back to visit every 3 years or so I didn't feel that being allowed to vote would have made sense (and indeed I had been given the impression that fleeting visits didn't count for residency for voting)

    But the world has changed - it started when I found I could listen to Kim Hill on my computer, when my contact with NZ became daily rather then stumbling on a week old NZH in a newsagent's in another town every 6 months or so - maybe it is time to review that rule

    Dunedin • Since Nov 2006 • 2550 posts Report Reply

  • Grant McDougall,

    I’ve left the largest of the looming deficits facing New Zealand until last: climate change and the environment.

    A few close friends of mine are long-term DOC employees. One in particular is very high up in one of the conservancies.

    They reckon that National's lack of interest in these issues is a) because it's not an economic, money-making industry, so who cares ? and, b) the people that are interested in these issues aren't generally National voters, so who cares ?

    National's general ignorance on these issues is beyond the pale.

    Dunedin • Since Dec 2006 • 743 posts Report Reply

  • linger, in reply to Zach Bagnall,

    Interesting thing: in practice, there is no independent check on where your passport has been between elections, and there is no independent check on whether you are in one of the occupation categories exempted from the NZ residence criterion. By default, you are assumed to remain eligible until you say otherwise. Thus many expats will still be counted as eligible voters whether or not they actually meet the legal criterion. You really do have to deliberately decide to exclude yourself from eligibility.

    Tokyo • Since Apr 2007 • 1736 posts Report Reply

  • Rosemary McDonald,

    Waikato, or on the road • Since Apr 2014 • 1283 posts Report Reply

  • Jason Kemp,

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 346 posts Report Reply

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