Polity by Rob Salmond

Read Post

Polity: House-buying patterns in Auckland

506 Responses

First ←Older Page 1 17 18 19 20 21 Newer→ Last

  • Katharine Moody, in reply to BenWilson,

    Would we even notice 4 billion in debt increase in the Chinese banking sector? Especially since shadow banking there seems pretty big?

    One cannot discern anything of any size amidst smoke and mirrors :-).

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood,

    Coincidentally, the Reserve Bank Foreign exchange monthly turnover is up about 4 billion over the latest three months I have house prices for compared to the previous 3 months. I need to note that I think the 4 billion in house sales numbers being about the same is a coincidence, as mortgage lending did go up in the period by 1.5 billion.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report Reply

  • nzlemming, in reply to David Hood,

    Where are you getting your evidence for that from

    "Evidence? He don' need no steenken evidence, meesta..."

    Waikanae • Since Nov 2006 • 2935 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody, in reply to David Hood,

    Agreed - sounds like a coincidence. Just a note, any questions you have about RBNZ data will (normally) be responded to quite promptly by RBNZ in any email request. Every written inquiry is treated as if it were a request for official information under the OIA - even if you don't stipulate that it is a request under the Act.

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood, in reply to Michael Homer,

    p.s. Michael, thanks for the info about the Linz data. I don't think it should be used for too exact time matches- looking in the Closed Access Group at the history of the property titles table, there were around 30000 rows updated on may 30th alone, and about 10000ish rows for all of June. So I suspect the title information gets updated in batches as the information comes through. This means snapshots would need to be over a fairly broad period for comparison purposes.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report Reply

  • William Ray, in reply to David Hood,

    Apologies if the question has already been asked but couldn’t the "magic money" gap be accounted for by pre-bubble homeowners in Auckland who haven't jumped on the property ladder? I mean there must be a decent proportion of owners who took out a mortgage in the mid 90s-early 2000s and have then seen their house valuation skyrocket without increasing debt.

    Wellington • Since Aug 2009 • 18 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood,

    Random statistic, fresh from the data. 8% of owners of property titles through all NZ have the characters "trust" somewhere in the name. at lot more of this is trusts of various kinds than people with the surname "Trust.."

    I'll ballpark the urban Auckland Area sometime when I have time, but this is the percentage of "grey area" when government starts collecting details.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody, in reply to David Hood,

    And isn't the word "limited" also of interest in terms of the data? Many properties I imagine are owned by a limited liability company for one reason or other.

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood,

    William, it hasn't been discussed here, but this is the reason I have focused on increases- If a house changes hands one person gets money and one person pays money. The person getting the money often pays off the mortgage and has some more beside, the person paying the money often needs to get a mortgage. But in the long term, it balances out in terms of total amounts of mortgages and house value if there is no extra money coming into housing (becoming mortgages were being created as well as destroyed). And this was the pattern from 2001 back to as early as I could find numbers for (early 80s for good numbers, but the trend seems much the same with more limited earlier numbers). From the early 2000s the amount of money being spent on increasing house prices is not being payed for- either from selling old houses, selling other asset classes, or loaning more from banks.

    Pre-bubble homeowners may individually do rather well when they sell their houses, but someone needs to buy the house, and that person (if they are part of the New Zealand Economy) needs to get the money to pay for the house from somewhere. It isn't coming from other household assets, it isn't coming from wage increases, and while household mortgage borrowing has increased, it has not increased to match the amount that house prices have gone up by (it looks more like it is being dragged along).

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report Reply

  • David Hood,

    22.5% of properties have "limited" owners, given there are about 1.8 million private dwellings in the census and 2.15 million property records, there are about 16% of properties that are not houses, so even if limited was all the non-houses it is still nearly as many houses as the trust on top of that, so yes "being a company" could also very much obscure the governments record keeping of the market.

    Dunedin • Since May 2007 • 1445 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody, in reply to David Hood,

    Yes, the more one looks into it - if one really wants reliable data on offshore foreign ownership of residential dwelling units, then a register is perhaps the best the way to go.

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • Alfie,

    The Herald reports that a couple of wealthy National Party donors are selling more than $26 million of property in Auckland. Their names are Zhao Wu Shen and Susan Chou, but obviously, I wouldn't want to read anything into that.

    What interested me is that both people are listed as students on the electoral roll. WTF?

    Dunedin • Since May 2014 • 1437 posts Report Reply

  • chris, in reply to Alfie,

    I wouldn’t want to read anything into that.

    But you did kind of, didn't you?

    What interested me is that both people are listed as students on the electoral roll. WTF?

    New Zealand Education™ - Big Business since 1989:

    Nearly 100,000 international students chose New Zealand for their studies abroad in 2012, contributing NZ $2 billion (US $1.64 billion) to the economy and supporting approximately 32,000 jobs. And, a further 3,000 students were enrolled last year in offshore programmes operated by New Zealand institutions.

    This makes international education a significant export sector in the country, and the government aims to see it bigger still, having set a target of doubling the sector’s value to NZ $5 billion (US $4.1 billion) by 2025.

    Star Performer(23/1/2015):

    In terms of intake, there was noticeable growth from China, India and Indonesia. China became the single biggest market for New Zealand education. Student enrollments from China went up by 2,978 or 12 percent, and 29.1 percent of the total international student spending also came from China.

    Mawkland • Since Jan 2010 • 1302 posts Report Reply

  • Alfie, in reply to chris,

    I understand the economic benefit of foreign students, but I fear you may have missed the point of my post Chris. These "students" are selling $26m worth of property. While I've known lots of students in my lifetime, not one of them had access to that kind of crazy wealth.

    Now it's possible that they have stupidly rich parents, I grant you -- Max Key flaunt it if you've got it types. But isn't it also possible that students are fronting for (and thereby effectively concealing the identity of) wealthy offshore owners? Because to my mind, that scenario is what the government's soon to be enacted local bank account & IRD number housing legislation will surely encourage.

    Note also that this couple threw $370k to the Nats. Again, that's not overtly student-like behaviour.

    Their company has been registered in NZ since 2002 and the directors' addresses are in Hong Kong. Students for 13 years? Yeah, nah!

    Dunedin • Since May 2014 • 1437 posts Report Reply

  • chris, in reply to Alfie,

    I think what I’m getting at is that student can just be taken to mean an educational consumer. Ben Wilson’s a student. Grey Power were representin’ in some of my classes at Uni. With sufficient funds it’s one of the easier ways for immigrants to get a foot in the door – the cut price overseas investor category.

    National Certificate in Hairdressing (Salon Support)

    Mawkland • Since Jan 2010 • 1302 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody, in reply to Alfie,

    What interested me is that both people are listed as students on the electoral roll. WTF?

    Student must be what they stated as their occupation at the time of registering on the electoral roll. A foreign student studying in NZ, who enters on a student visa – cannot vote – so this couple must both be permanent residents or citizens of New Zealand;

    http://www.elections.org.nz/voters/enrol-check-or-update-now/who-can-and-cant-enrol

    And ‘student’ was what they stated as their occupation at the time of registration on the electoral roll.

    This does raise another point however, that of student allowances – which they might well have been on when registering to vote. Student allowances are not loans – they are taxpayer funded – and they never have to be paid back – here are the criteria;

    http://www.studylink.govt.nz/student-allowance/

    They are income but not asset tested. As long as you don’t work, and you don’t collect an income (or if you make a loss on your asset, I assume .. a ‘negative income’) on your assets, I imagine you would qualify for a student allowance (and provided you are enrolled to study).

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • BenWilson, in reply to Katharine Moody,

    They are income but not asset tested. As long as you don’t work, and you don’t collect an income (or if you make a loss on your asset, I assume .. a ‘negative income’) on your assets, I imagine you would qualify for a student allowance (and provided you are enrolled to study).

    Subject to restrictions that actually catch a tremendous number of students. Parental income, spousal income, being under 24 without children, living with parents, are all factors that will reduce your allowance. Foreign students need to have residency and to have been here for 3 years. By the time you’ve winnowed like that you’re down to poor young local students, unattached mature students, poor postgrad foreign students and young students with children. Each is a comparatively small group. That said, I don’t know how they find out parental income for foreign students.

    Worth noting that the fees themselves were, and still are, heavily subsidized. It’s annoying to pay fees when the people bringing them in never did. But nowhere near as annoying as paying full fees would be.

    Auckland • Since Nov 2006 • 10657 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody, in reply to chris,

    With sufficient funds it’s one of the easier ways for immigrants to get a foot in the door – the cut price overseas investor category.

    Also being discussed here;

    http://www.interest.co.nz/business/76728/number-chinese-investors-applying-nz-residency-jumps-48-over-past-year-competition

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

  • Alfie,

    The UK papers are reporting claims from Transparency International that UK property purchases via shell companies are being used to move corrupt money around the world. Cameron has finally promised to introduce a central public land registry of foreign companies which would detail which land they own.

    David Cameron will promise to act against corrupt foreigners who buy up luxury properties in the UK using secretive holding companies to hide their “dirty money”.

    The prime minister will use a visit to Singapore to make an anti-corruption speech on Tuesday in which he will express concern that some properties, mainly in London, “are being bought by people overseas through anonymous shell companies, some with plundered or laundered cash”.

    Drawing on proposals advanced by campaign group Transparency International, Cameron will set out his determination to ensure that “the UK must not become a safe haven for corrupt money from around the world”.

    That will make NZ an even bigger target for laundering your dirty millions.

    Dunedin • Since May 2014 • 1437 posts Report Reply

  • chris,

    “the UK must not become a safe haven for corrupt money from around the world”.

    That's a few centuries late but good on ’em!

    Mawkland • Since Jan 2010 • 1302 posts Report Reply

  • Alfie,

    Attachment

    Emerson in the Herald.

    Dunedin • Since May 2014 • 1437 posts Report Reply

  • chris, in reply to Alfie,

    Attachment

    I don’t know, have we reached peak bourgeois yet? The way I see it, that cartoon can only be appreciated by about 2/3 of the country tops, perhaps that’s the readership, but slapping “Foreign” into the title doesn’t change a damn thing for a whole lot of people. It’s not as if foreign owners enjoy a rates exemption or anything.

    Serial renters have watched NZ home owners/ landlords huffing and puffing those prices for decades, homeowners haven’t really got reasonable cause for complaint, and yet my their voice is loud.

    Mawkland • Since Jan 2010 • 1302 posts Report Reply

  • John Laurie,

    If I was living in Samoa, and evidence was presented that non-resident New Zealanders might be buying up 30% of houses on the market, and prices were increasing at such a rate that local residents were being priced out of the market, would my reaction be to feel that that Samoan Government should do something to stop it, or would I just feel offended that someone had targeted New Zealanders?.I am dismayed by the reactions of some high profile New Zealand Chinese on this issue, in that they have reacted emotionally as Chinese and not as citizens of New Zealand, who might also see their children unable to buy houses here. At what stage might this allegiance reverse itself and what is the consequence for New Zealand if there are large numbers of people here whose primary identification is with other countries? I add that I am no stranger to immigrant communities in New Zealand and I don't blame people for feeling like this.

    New Zealand • Since Jul 2009 • 2 posts Report Reply

  • chris, in reply to John Laurie,

    If I was living in Samoa, and evidence was presented that non-resident New Zealanders might be buying up 30% of houses on the market, and prices were increasing at such a rate that local residents were being priced out of the market, would my reaction be to feel that that Samoan Government should do something to stop it, or would I just feel offended that someone had targeted New Zealanders?

    You're the only person in a position to answer that.

    Mawkland • Since Jan 2010 • 1302 posts Report Reply

  • Katharine Moody, in reply to chris,

    Nope. But then I have no idea what white sounds like in comparison to pink, purple, orange, yellow, blue, brown or black. In my family, we have most of those colours and regardless of colour, they all sound like family to me.

    PS Oh, I see you changed your previous post. Well done.

    Wellington • Since Sep 2014 • 798 posts Report Reply

First ←Older Page 1 17 18 19 20 21 Newer→ Last

Post your response…

Please sign in using your Public Address credentials…

Login

You may also create an account or retrieve your password.